F1MATHS: What does the Spa boxplot diagram reveal about the pecking order?

While Andrea Kimi Antonelli converted pole position into victory at Spa-Francorchamps, a closer look at the race pace boxplot provides a clearer picture of how each team performed over the course of the 44-lap Belgian Grand Prix. F1Technical's senior writer Balazs Szabo delivers his latest analysis.

The data shows Mercedes enjoyed the quickest overall package, with Ferrari emerging as its closest challenger with Charles Leclerc having finishing just under two seconds behind at the chequered flag.

Antonelli recorded an average lap time of 1m50.191s, making Mercedes the benchmark throughout the race. Leclerc's average was just 0.20 seconds slower per lap, a surprisingly large margin considering the Ferrari crossed the finish line less than two seconds behind the Mercedes.

However, the finishing gap does not tell the whole story. Ferrari gained a significant strategic advantage by pitting Leclerc under the Virtual Safety Car, allowing him to emerge ahead of Antonelli despite the Mercedes driver controlling the opening stint. Without that reduced-loss pit stop, Antonelli would likely have maintained track position throughout the race.

The boxplot also highlights the consistency of both frontrunners. The spread of Antonelli's and Leclerc's lap times is remarkably similar, indicating both drivers produced stable race pace with little variation. Antonelli's distribution is positioned slightly lower, reflecting his superior average speed over the race distance.

The lap-by-lap data reveals two key phases that ultimately decided the outcome. Following the early Safety Car restart, Antonelli was immediately able to extract more performance from the medium tyres.

Between laps five and seven he consistently lapped faster than Leclerc, who temporarily struggled to generate pace and also lost second place to Max Verstappen.

Later in the race, once both drivers had switched onto the hard compound, Mercedes again held the advantage. Between laps 27 and 33 Antonelli was approximately four tenths of a second per lap quicker, allowing him to erase Leclerc's lead before reclaiming first place on the Kemmel Straight on lap 34.

Behind the leading duo, Red Bull emerged as the third-fastest team. Max Verstappen's average pace was approximately 0.22 seconds per lap slower than Mercedes, while McLaren ranked fourth, around 0.31 seconds behind the race-winning benchmark.

McLaren's average pace, however, does not fully reflect the car's true competitiveness. Lando Norris started only 13th after his ten-place grid penalty and spent much of the first half of the race overtaking midfield traffic instead of running in clean air.

Those laps inevitably inflated his average lap time. Oscar Piastri's figures were affected even more significantly after sustaining floor damage during his battle with Leclerc in the opening stint. The Australian is estimated to have lost around two tenths of a second per lap thereafter, explaining why he averaged around three tenths per lap slower than his teammate.

Norris believed after the race that he had the pace to challenge for both the podium and victory had he started closer to the front, and the race circumstances make that claim difficult to dismiss despite what the average pace numbers alone suggest.

The midfield battle was comfortably won by Racing Bulls, whose average pace was approximately 1.15 seconds slower than Mercedes. That represented another impressive performance from the Faenza-based team, which has consistently established itself as the strongest midfield outfit during recent races.

Audi occupied sixth position in the pace ranking, averaging 1.40 seconds off the Mercedes benchmark. Alpine followed at 1.81 seconds, while Haas and Williams were closely matched at around 2.15 and 2.20 seconds respectively. The similarities between Haas and Williams suggest there was little to separate the two teams over a representative race stint despite their differing race results.

Cadillac rounded out the manufacturers but with a considerable deficit. The American squad averaged almost 3.8 seconds per lap slower than Mercedes, underlining just how difficult the race proved for the newest team on the grid. Fernando Alonso's Aston Martin was even slower on average, finishing more than 4.2 seconds per lap adrift of the winning Mercedes pace.