2017 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix - Yas Marina, 24-26 November

[Fulcrum]

Based on the %full throttle numbers, this should be a fairly strait forward Merc pole and win. Specially when you consider Hamilton has fresher engine components than any other contender, and Mercedes definitely understands the "Diva" significantly better than they did earlier in the year.

Track	                          % Full Throttle	Pole	        Win
Monza                             76	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Silverstone                       70	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Spa-Francorchamps                 70	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Circuit de Catalunya              67	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Bahrain International Circuit     66	                Mercedes	Ferrari
Suzuka                            66	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Red Bull Ring                     65	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Albert Park                       61	                Mercedes	Ferrari
Circuit Gilles Villeneuve         59	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Circuit of the Americas           59	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Yas Marina	                  59		
Shanghai International Circuit    56	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Sochi Autodrom	                  50	                Ferrari	        Mercedes
Interlagos                        50	                Mercedes	Ferrari
Baku City Circuit                 49	                Mercedes	RBR
Singapore                         49	                Ferrari	        Mercedes
Sepang International Circuit      45	                Mercedes	RBR
Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez      45	                Ferrari	        RBR
Hungaroring                       44	                Ferrari	        Ferrari
Monte-Carlo                       34	                Ferrari	        Ferrari

When written down like that it's shocking how much Mercedes is still dominant after a major reg change.

Well, the PU continues to be the same so its not so unusual to be still dominant, but yes, they are too dominant if we consider that the new PU appeared in 2014.

This is very interesting because I consider Canada, Austria and Sochi pretty fast but they are far from being in the top.

I get that the tyres were a major change, and well done to Mercedes for staying on top, but the tyres have indirectly reinforced Mercedes best asset - their engine. Throttle percentages have gone up with the wider tyres.

[f1316]

There’s really less full throttle in Mexico and Sepang than Singapore? I find that surprising.

Also what is full throttle % in Abu Dhabi?

Abu Dhabi is Yas Marina, 59%

Sorry missed that

Nevertheless, I still think there’s slightly more to the equation here, in that cars may be running in higher downforce config than they were at Interlagos, for example.

[Sieper]

I read somewhere that the MGU-H by regulation is limited to 125.000 rpm. Now in Mexico, due to the thin air at an altitude of 2100m above sea level (jeez! Such a big city so high up) to still get as close to the maximum potential of the MGU-H it has to be run almost constantly at that number, as we saw 5 of the 6 Renault engine cars could not cope with that (even more when you include the practice and qualifying but OK) only Max’ car survived but his engines was dialed down (more and more) as he was in the lead relatively unthreatened.

In Brazil (still 800m above sea level) as a precaution and as Renault had so many broken down parts already (that they simply cannot replace anymore) it was decided to not allow running any of the Renault engines at full power. Still max had a tear in his mgu-h (on Friday) and an old written off example was placed back in and we saw some cars with patched up engine go poof straight of the bat.

Can we now expect the Renaults back at full power in Abu Dhabi? It is on sea level so the MGU-H won’t have to be run at full rpm all the time, so they should be able to cope with it? (and it is the last race anyway) or will all 3 Renault engined teams be more or less “out of competition” again as per Sao Paolo? What do you expect?

[SiLo]

Hamilton has always gone well here, I expect if Ferrari are close, and the last sector I imagine will suit them, that he will make the difference to take pole and the win.

[Vasconia]

Can we now expect the Renaults back at full power in Abu Dhabi? It is on sea level so the MGU-H won’t have to be run at full rpm all the time, so they should be able to cope with it? (and it is the last race anyway) or will all 3 Renault engined teams be more or less “out of competition” again as per Sao Paolo? What do you expect?

They will, better conditions and last race, if the PU have to blow up, let it to blow up.

[ChrisDanger]

Can we now expect the Renaults back at full power in Abu Dhabi? It is on sea level so the MGU-H won’t have to be run at full rpm all the time, so they should be able to cope with it? (and it is the last race anyway) or will all 3 Renault engined teams be more or less “out of competition” again as per Sao Paolo? What do you expect?

They will, better conditions and last race, if the PU have to blow up, let it to blow up.

I'm sure Renault will want to steal 6th as much as Toro Rosso will want to keep it. Both will want to push but neither will want to risk a failure. Renault have three 6th place finishes against only one for T.R., so there's only 4 points in it.

Click to enlarge:

[Vasconia]

Can we now expect the Renaults back at full power in Abu Dhabi? It is on sea level so the MGU-H won’t have to be run at full rpm all the time, so they should be able to cope with it? (and it is the last race anyway) or will all 3 Renault engined teams be more or less “out of competition” again as per Sao Paolo? What do you expect?

They will, better conditions and last race, if the PU have to blow up, let it to blow up.

I'm sure Renault will want to steal 6th as much as Toro Rosso will want to keep it. Both will want to push but neither will want to risk a failure. Renault have three 6th place finishes against only one for T.R., so there's only 4 points in it.

Click to enlarge:
https://i.imgur.com/Pq0gsTK.png

I had RB in mind but you are right.

With Sainz and Hulkenberg Renault can do it but they have to push the PU a little bit. For sure they will beat TR but they need to finish both on points.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Hamilton has always gone well here, I expect if Ferrari are close, and the last sector I imagine will suit them, that he will make the difference to take pole and the win.

I don't think there is one full sector that suits Ferrari. There are bits everywhere where they might be faster, but other than that, it is a power and downforce circuit, where W08 is quite strong.

Here are some of the slow corners on the circuit. These are places where traction becomes critical, which is where Ferrari excels.
corner 6 - 85 kph
corner 7 - 68 kph
LONG STRAIGHT
corner 8 - 67 kph
corner 9 - 89 kph
LONG STRAIGHT
corner 11 - 99 kph
corner 17 - 93 kph

Fight for pole is going to be even between the two teams. Depends on which driver excels in that moment.

[orchman92]

Last race without that hideous HALO :/

I hope the teams do some innovative with it and make it look better than it does so far, although im not sure there is a lot that could be done with it.

At least stop it blocking the T camera!

[f1316]

Hamilton has always gone well here, I expect if Ferrari are close, and the last sector I imagine will suit them, that he will make the difference to take pole and the win.

Let’s be clear: both Hamilton AND Vettel have always gone well here.

No. wins Driver Years
3 S.Vettel. 2009, 2010, 2013
3 L.Hamilton 2011, 2014, 2016

[NathanOlder]

Hamilton has always gone well here, I expect if Ferrari are close, and the last sector I imagine will suit them, that he will make the difference to take pole and the win.

Let’s be clear: both Hamilton AND Vettel have always gone well here.

No. wins Driver Years
3 S.Vettel. 2009, 2010, 2013
3 L.Hamilton 2011, 2014, 2016

And Lewis has 2 x 2nd places and was leading in 2 others and retired with car problems.

Vettel had just 2011 where he had a puncture.

So yes both strong but Lewis certainly stronger.

[PlatinumZealot]

Based on the %full throttle numbers, this should be a fairly strait forward Merc pole and win. Specially when you consider Hamilton has fresher engine components than any other contender, and Mercedes definitely understands the "Diva" significantly better than they did earlier in the year.

Track	                          % Full Throttle	Pole	        Win
Monza                             76	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Silverstone                       70	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Spa-Francorchamps                 70	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Circuit de Catalunya              67	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Bahrain International Circuit     66	                Mercedes	Ferrari
Suzuka                            66	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Red Bull Ring                     65	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Albert Park                       61	                Mercedes	Ferrari
Circuit Gilles Villeneuve         59	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Circuit of the Americas           59	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Yas Marina	                  59		
Shanghai International Circuit    56	                Mercedes	Mercedes
Sochi Autodrom	                  50	                Ferrari	        Mercedes
Interlagos                        50	                Mercedes	Ferrari
Baku City Circuit                 49	                Mercedes	RBR
Singapore                         49	                Ferrari	        Mercedes
Sepang International Circuit      45	                Mercedes	RBR
Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez      45	                Ferrari	        RBR
Hungaroring                       44	                Ferrari	        Ferrari
Monte-Carlo                       34	                Ferrari	        Ferrari

Check when that data was valid. Looks off.

[Just_a_fan]

Check when that data was valid. Looks off.

If you're calling the data as bad, it's your job to show why, not his.

[PlatinumZealot]

Check when that data was valid. Looks off.

If you're calling the data as bad, it's your job to show why, not his.

OK. It looks OK. You are in the clear.

[GrandAxe]

Last race without that hideous HALO :/

I hope the teams do some innovative with it and make it look better than it does so far, although im not sure there is a lot that could be done with it.

At least stop it blocking the T camera!

Innovative? They will certainly put all sorts of garish aero surfaces and protrusions on it, especially as there's no T-wing next season.

For the race, I predict:
1. Lewis
2. Bottas
3. Ricciardo
4. Max
5. Vettel
6. Kimi
7. Alonso
8. Vandoorne
9. Occon
10. Hulkenberg