2026 Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team

[avantman]

I’ve studdied some lap time data and I’m now convinced Russell could not switch hard tires on properly. They simply were not working properly ever for him during the race. Is it a function of his driving style or setup I don’t know, but I’m sure this is what it was. Deg alone wasnt the problem, he wasn't fast from the get go putting brand new hard on, whereas on first stint on medium he was much faster than Kimi and didn't experience more deg than him. The hard tires not were not in their operational window, which made him slide more which made the deg on hard even worse. Lets wait until the Mercedes debrief but I expect to hear this explanation.

[venkyhere]

I’ve studdied some lap time data and I’m now convinced Russell could not switch hard tires on properly. They simply were not working properly ever for him during the race. Is it a function of his driving style or setup I don’t know, but I’m sure this is what it was. Deg alone wasnt the problem, he wasn't fast from the get go putting brand new hard on, whereas on first stint on medium he was much faster than Kimi and didn't experience more deg than him. The hard tires not were not in their operational window, which made him slide more which made the deg on hard even worse. Lets wait until the Mercedes debrief but I expect to hear this explanation.

You should also take into consideration a huge difference in 'conditions' experienced between both Mercedes drivers. George drove in clean air almost the entire race (except when he had to pass cars for a few laps after every pitstop), whilst Kimi drove in dirty air almost fully, until his PU went kaput. On a high temp high deg track, Kimi still matched the race pace of Russel and even overtook on merit with no tyre offset. Unlike 'low grip' tracks like Miami which Russel claimed 'didn't suit' him, this is one of the highest grip tracks on the calender. Just think of the variety of tracks we have seen from Australia to Barcelona - Kimi has either matched Russel's pace or exceeded Russel's pace. Its a simple fact that hints at a 'talen gap' between the two of them.

[Tonino]

I’ve studdied some lap time data and I’m now convinced Russell could not switch hard tires on properly. They simply were not working properly ever for him during the race. Is it a function of his driving style or setup I don’t know, but I’m sure this is what it was. Deg alone wasnt the problem, he wasn't fast from the get go putting brand new hard on, whereas on first stint on medium he was much faster than Kimi and didn't experience more deg than him. The hard tires not were not in their operational window, which made him slide more which made the deg on hard even worse. Lets wait until the Mercedes debrief but I expect to hear this explanation.

You should also take into consideration a huge difference in 'conditions' experienced between both Mercedes drivers. George drove in clean air almost the entire race (except when he had to pass cars for a few laps after every pitstop), whilst Kimi drove in dirty air almost fully, until his PU went kaput. On a high temp high deg track, Kimi still matched the race pace of Russel and even overtook on merit with no tyre offset. Unlike 'low grip' tracks like Miami which Russel claimed 'didn't suit' him, this is one of the highest grip tracks on the calender. Just think of the variety of tracks we have seen from Australia to Barcelona - Kimi has either matched Russel's pace or exceeded Russel's pace. Its a simple fact that hints at a 'talen gap' between the two of them.

This race was basically exhibit #245 of why George has always been mid when it comes to race pace.

I rewatched the whole thing from Kimi's onboard last night and it was painful to watch. Kimi clearly had more pace but spent half the race stuck behind George, who was lapping like he was carrying a caravan. That second stint was an embarrassment. So much time thrown away for absolutely no reason. Team completely bottled that one.

The only positive is that I can't see Toto tolerating this for much longer. He's not going to sacrifice a title challenge to protect one driver's ego. Give it another race or two. If Kimi keeps showing this kind of race pace advantage over George, the team is going to have to stop pretending they're equals and start making the obvious calls.

[SiLo]

I’ve studdied some lap time data and I’m now convinced Russell could not switch hard tires on properly. They simply were not working properly ever for him during the race. Is it a function of his driving style or setup I don’t know, but I’m sure this is what it was. Deg alone wasnt the problem, he wasn't fast from the get go putting brand new hard on, whereas on first stint on medium he was much faster than Kimi and didn't experience more deg than him. The hard tires not were not in their operational window, which made him slide more which made the deg on hard even worse. Lets wait until the Mercedes debrief but I expect to hear this explanation.

You should also take into consideration a huge difference in 'conditions' experienced between both Mercedes drivers. George drove in clean air almost the entire race (except when he had to pass cars for a few laps after every pitstop), whilst Kimi drove in dirty air almost fully, until his PU went kaput. On a high temp high deg track, Kimi still matched the race pace of Russel and even overtook on merit with no tyre offset. Unlike 'low grip' tracks like Miami which Russel claimed 'didn't suit' him, this is one of the highest grip tracks on the calender. Just think of the variety of tracks we have seen from Australia to Barcelona - Kimi has either matched Russel's pace or exceeded Russel's pace. Its a simple fact that hints at a 'talen gap' between the two of them.

This race was basically exhibit #245 of why George has always been mid when it comes to race pace.

I rewatched the whole thing from Kimi's onboard last night and it was painful to watch. Kimi clearly had more pace but spent half the race stuck behind George, who was lapping like he was carrying a caravan. That second stint was an embarrassment. So much time thrown away for absolutely no reason. Team completely bottled that one.

The only positive is that I can't see Toto tolerating this for much longer. He's not going to sacrifice a title challenge to protect one driver's ego. Give it another race or two. If Kimi keeps showing this kind of race pace advantage over George, the team is going to have to stop pretending they're equals and start making the obvious calls.

It will certainly be compounded if its Hamilton hunting for wins consistently. Mercedes has all the experience in the world of it from the other side of the fence. The problem then will be will Russell play ball, and can Kimi withstand the pressure?

[Tonino]

You should also take into consideration a huge difference in 'conditions' experienced between both Mercedes drivers. George drove in clean air almost the entire race (except when he had to pass cars for a few laps after every pitstop), whilst Kimi drove in dirty air almost fully, until his PU went kaput. On a high temp high deg track, Kimi still matched the race pace of Russel and even overtook on merit with no tyre offset. Unlike 'low grip' tracks like Miami which Russel claimed 'didn't suit' him, this is one of the highest grip tracks on the calender. Just think of the variety of tracks we have seen from Australia to Barcelona - Kimi has either matched Russel's pace or exceeded Russel's pace. Its a simple fact that hints at a 'talen gap' between the two of them.

This race was basically exhibit #245 of why George has always been mid when it comes to race pace.

I rewatched the whole thing from Kimi's onboard last night and it was painful to watch. Kimi clearly had more pace but spent half the race stuck behind George, who was lapping like he was carrying a caravan. That second stint was an embarrassment. So much time thrown away for absolutely no reason. Team completely bottled that one.

The only positive is that I can't see Toto tolerating this for much longer. He's not going to sacrifice a title challenge to protect one driver's ego. Give it another race or two. If Kimi keeps showing this kind of race pace advantage over George, the team is going to have to stop pretending they're equals and start making the obvious calls.

It will certainly be compounded if its Hamilton hunting for wins consistently. Mercedes has all the experience in the world of it from the other side of the fence. The problem then will be will Russell play ball, and can Kimi withstand the pressure?

Don't think he has any leverage whatsoever if it gets to that point. If the team decides Kimi is their best shot at a championship, George either plays ball or he doesn't. Mercedes aren't going to sacrifice a title campaign just to keep him happy. If he has a problem with it, there are other teams out there he can go to, and I doubt anyone at Mercedes would lose much sleep over it.

Honestly, George could just become what Bottas was at Mercedes, and there's no shame in that. Bottas understood that Hamilton was simply the faster and more talented driver, but he still scored points, won races, and played a huge role in multiple championship winning teams. That's a pretty good career.

As for Kimi handling the pressure, we'll have to wait and see. It's still early days. He lost his cool on the radio in Canada, but I was pretty impressed with him yesterday. There was none of the radio complaining or asking the team to move the other car out of the way. He just kept his head down and got on with it. Then after the race he was very measured in the interviews as well. For a 19-year-old, that's a pretty mature way to handle what must have been a frustrating race.

[avantman]

I’ve studdied some lap time data and I’m now convinced Russell could not switch hard tires on properly. They simply were not working properly ever for him during the race. Is it a function of his driving style or setup I don’t know, but I’m sure this is what it was. Deg alone wasnt the problem, he wasn't fast from the get go putting brand new hard on, whereas on first stint on medium he was much faster than Kimi and didn't experience more deg than him. The hard tires not were not in their operational window, which made him slide more which made the deg on hard even worse. Lets wait until the Mercedes debrief but I expect to hear this explanation.

You should also take into consideration a huge difference in 'conditions' experienced between both Mercedes drivers. George drove in clean air almost the entire race (except when he had to pass cars for a few laps after every pitstop), whilst Kimi drove in dirty air almost fully, until his PU went kaput. On a high temp high deg track, Kimi still matched the race pace of Russel and even overtook on merit with no tyre offset. Unlike 'low grip' tracks like Miami which Russel claimed 'didn't suit' him, this is one of the highest grip tracks on the calender. Just think of the variety of tracks we have seen from Australia to Barcelona - Kimi has either matched Russel's pace or exceeded Russel's pace. Its a simple fact that hints at a 'talen gap' between the two of them.

That doesn't explain Kimi’s lack of pace on medium. He wasn't even directly behind Hamilton, but rather 2s adrift. He was just slow. I’m not convinced yet drivers’ pace in these current anti-driving cars can be considered ad reliable metrics of talent. This is quite sad actually all these incredible drivers have to spend best years of their careers driving these modern sh*tboxes - batteries on wheels.

[Matt2725]

Yeah all this talk about how terrible Russell is. Kimi's pace was nowhere compared on the mediums but I guess Toto can "tolerate" that.

Russell's driving style is too smooth and he couldn't turn the hards on. Kimi was driving as aggressively as ever as demonstrated by the track limits penalties (good luck in Austria Kimi is all I'm saying) and it worked for the hards.

It doesn't help that Marcus Dudley rarely feeds back to George on where he's losing time and how he can improve or mitigate those losses.

Also Bradley Lord admitted in the debrief that they screwed up the front wing adjustment on Russell's car at the last pit stop, which gave him heaps of oversteer.

[Tonino]

I’ve studdied some lap time data and I’m now convinced Russell could not switch hard tires on properly. They simply were not working properly ever for him during the race. Is it a function of his driving style or setup I don’t know, but I’m sure this is what it was. Deg alone wasnt the problem, he wasn't fast from the get go putting brand new hard on, whereas on first stint on medium he was much faster than Kimi and didn't experience more deg than him. The hard tires not were not in their operational window, which made him slide more which made the deg on hard even worse. Lets wait until the Mercedes debrief but I expect to hear this explanation.

You should also take into consideration a huge difference in 'conditions' experienced between both Mercedes drivers. George drove in clean air almost the entire race (except when he had to pass cars for a few laps after every pitstop), whilst Kimi drove in dirty air almost fully, until his PU went kaput. On a high temp high deg track, Kimi still matched the race pace of Russel and even overtook on merit with no tyre offset. Unlike 'low grip' tracks like Miami which Russel claimed 'didn't suit' him, this is one of the highest grip tracks on the calender. Just think of the variety of tracks we have seen from Australia to Barcelona - Kimi has either matched Russel's pace or exceeded Russel's pace. Its a simple fact that hints at a 'talen gap' between the two of them.

That doesn't explain Kimi’s lack of pace on medium. He wasn't even directly behind Hamilton, but rather 2s adrift. He was just slow. I’m not convinced yet drivers’ pace in these current anti-driving cars can be considered ad reliable metrics of talent. This is quite sad actually all these incredible drivers have to spend best years of their careers driving these modern sh*tboxes - batteries on wheels.

Data doesn't really supports what you said about Kimi's pace on mediums.

First of all, he wasn't sitting 2 seconds behind Hamilton for the whole stint. The gap was:

Lap 2: 0.9s

Lap 3: 1.2s

Lap 4: 0.9s

Lap 5: 0.8s

Lap 6: 0.9s

Lap 7: 1.5s

Lap 8: 1.7s

Lap 9: 1.9s

Lap 10: 2.0s

So for more than half of the stint he was running around a second behind Hamilton, not 2 seconds behind. The gap only grew from 0.9s to 2.0s over 8 laps, which is about 1.1 seconds total, or roughly a tenth per lap.

Then if we look at Russell vs Kimi, Russell definitely had the stronger first stint. The average gap was around four tenths per lap, but Russell was also leading the race in clean air while Kimi spent the entire stint following another car.

Looking at the actual lap times, I don't see evidence that he was "just slow."

[zibby43]

In the team debrief, they admitted they incorrectly adjusted George’s front wing during a pit stop and gave him an oversteer balance that completely wrecked the setup.

This is farcical at this point.

[WardenOfTheNorth]

In the team debrief, they admitted they incorrectly adjusted George’s front wing during a pit stop and gave him an oversteer balance that completely wrecked the setup.

This is farcical at this point.

It's getting to the point where I can't blame the people peddling conspiracy theories around the team favouring Kimi!!

[zibby43]

In the team debrief, they admitted they incorrectly adjusted George’s front wing during a pit stop and gave him an oversteer balance that completely wrecked the setup.

This is farcical at this point.

It's getting to the point where I can't blame the people peddling conspiracy theories around the team favouring Kimi!!

Same. I also have seen, but not yet vetted, a claim that the team did not share info. re: Kimi’s line through T12, which was costing George around 4 tenths per lap.

[PlatinumZealot]

I’ve studdied some lap time data and I’m now convinced Russell could not switch hard tires on properly. They simply were not working properly ever for him during the race. Is it a function of his driving style or setup I don’t know, but I’m sure this is what it was. Deg alone wasnt the problem, he wasn't fast from the get go putting brand new hard on, whereas on first stint on medium he was much faster than Kimi and didn't experience more deg than him. The hard tires not were not in their operational window, which made him slide more which made the deg on hard even worse. Lets wait until the Mercedes debrief but I expect to hear this explanation.

In Barcelona even an quadriplegic could switch the hard tyres on!

He was just not working the lines and not maximising the grip as much as Kimi was. Every single time Kimi was hanging the car out at turn 10 which had positive compounding effect on the following turns and George just wasn't (or couldn't afford to?) doing that for some reason. It was free laptime.

I don't like this situation for him. It seems Kimi has him covered on all fronts.

[PlatinumZealot]

I’ve studdied some lap time data and I’m now convinced Russell could not switch hard tires on properly. They simply were not working properly ever for him during the race. Is it a function of his driving style or setup I don’t know, but I’m sure this is what it was. Deg alone wasnt the problem, he wasn't fast from the get go putting brand new hard on, whereas on first stint on medium he was much faster than Kimi and didn't experience more deg than him. The hard tires not were not in their operational window, which made him slide more which made the deg on hard even worse. Lets wait until the Mercedes debrief but I expect to hear this explanation.

You should also take into consideration a huge difference in 'conditions' experienced between both Mercedes drivers. George drove in clean air almost the entire race (except when he had to pass cars for a few laps after every pitstop), whilst Kimi drove in dirty air almost fully, until his PU went kaput. On a high temp high deg track, Kimi still matched the race pace of Russel and even overtook on merit with no tyre offset. Unlike 'low grip' tracks like Miami which Russel claimed 'didn't suit' him, this is one of the highest grip tracks on the calender. Just think of the variety of tracks we have seen from Australia to Barcelona - Kimi has either matched Russel's pace or exceeded Russel's pace. Its a simple fact that hints at a 'talen gap' between the two of them.

Correction. Barcelone 2026 was low grip. Very low grip!!

[zibby43]

[Tonino]

I've gone through the stint by stint race data from the first seven GP of the season, and it's actually quite remarkable when you put everything down on paper.

To try and remove as much noise as possible, I compared only representative race laps: same tyre compounds, non-pit laps, green-flag running. The goal was to isolate underlying race pace.

Final Scorecard

Kimi wins: 5
George wins: 0
Draws: 2

Strength ranking of Kimi's advantages

Miami – dominant

This was by far the most one-sided comparison of the season. Kimi was quicker on both compounds and maintained the advantage throughout the race. Even after removing anomalies, the gap remained substantial.

Monaco – clear

Despite Monaco being difficult to analyse because of traffic and race management, Kimi held a consistent advantage across both tyre stints and most sectors.

Japan – clear

The medium stint was close, but on the hard tyre Kimi pulled away significantly and held a clear pace advantage overall. George spent much of the final stint stuck behind the Ferraris and a McLaren while fighting for P2. That undoubtedly hurt his pace relative to running in clean air. However, even taking that into account, the overall data still points towards Kimi having the stronger race pace that day, particularly over the longer hard-tyre run.

Spain – small to moderate

George was stronger on the medium tyre, but Kimi overturned that deficit on the hard tyre and came out ahead in the overall pace comparison before his retirement.

Australia – small

Not by a huge amount, but Kimi was consistently enough ahead to gain roughly a tenth per lap overall and finish ahead on the majority of comparable laps.

China – draw

There was virtually nothing between them. If anything, Kimi had a tiny edge, but I'd classify it as equal race pace.

Canada – draw

Very similar to China. Kimi may have had a slight edge in the cleaned data.

There isn't a single race where George was clearly faster overall on race pace. Kimi holds the advantage in five of the seven events. The two draws (China and Canada) were genuinely close. Kimi's strongest trait has been long-run pace, particularly on the harder compounds. George's best relative performances came in China, Canada, and the opening medium stint in Spain, but those performances weren't enough to produce an outright race-pace win.

So after seven races my scorecard looks like this:

Kimi: Australia, Japan, Miami, Monaco, Spain
Draws: China, Canada
George: none

You can argue about the size of the gaps, luck, traffic, strategy, safety cars, tyre offsets, or whatever else you want. That's all part of racing and it's fair to discuss.

What I can't find is a single race where George was actually the faster driver over the race distance.

Seriously, which one is it?

Australia? Kimi
Japan? Kimi
Miami? Definitely Kimi
Monaco? Kimi
Spain? Kimi
China and Canada? Basically draws

At some point people need to stop arguing against the conclusion and start pointing to the race where George supposedly had the upper hand, because after going through the stint data race by race, I genuinely can't find it.

You can make a reasonable argument that some of Kimi's wins were small. You can make a reasonable argument that China and Canada were too close to call. What I don't think is reasonable is trying to turn a 5-0-2 scoreline into some sort of narrative that George has been faster at any point this year.

If anything, the most telling thing is that after seven races we're still looking for George's strongest race from a pace perspective, while Kimi already has multiple weekends where the advantage was clear and a couple where it was outright decisive.

Like I've said before, Toto and the team are going to have to make a decision on team orders sooner rather than later.
If the pace trend from the first seven races continues, Mercedes can't afford to keep treating both sides of the garage as equal indefinitely. At some point you have to back the driver who is consistently delivering the stronger race pace.