All season long the RBR cars have greatly benefitted from wet conditions compared to the rest of the competition, especially because obviously it is something that levels the field more, but Mercedes has been notoriously strong on handling it's tires.
When a race has been had under dry conditions, and Mercedes qualified in front, and there have been no neutralizations through red flags, SC, etc, RB's chances to come close to P1 has been far more difficult than under wet conditions.
One of the clearest examples here was the changing wet conditions in Russia at the end of the GP, where Max greatly benefitted from, and as such, really hurt the amount of points Hamilton could take on Verstappen, whom was serving engine penalties and started all the way from the back.
It's all part of the game and thats just how it is, i dont even mind, but its absolutely clear that Verstappen had a giant break of luck when serving his penalties compared to Hamilton, purely down to circumstances out of everybody's control (not to mention the Belgian facade). Also, thanks to the wet, Verstappen didn't even set Q times in Russia, saving his tires and engine and parts greatly. Personally i understand the move and the rules allow it but i find it really unsportive - again, the rules should prevent something delibaretely like this.
Had Russia been dry, then there is no single way Verstappen would have come close to where he finished.
And would Turkey have been dry, then there would have been more pitstops needed, or atleast the tactics would have played vastly different.
It's a trend that keeps returning, hence especially with COTA supposedly fitting Mercedes a bit more, as long as its dry, Hamilton can score good points.
If it turns out wet however, this will swing more towards RB/Max.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"