2021 São Paulo Grand Prix - Interlagos, Nov 12-14

[Restomaniac]

If Bottas starts on softs that would probably mean that Mercedes plan for Hamilton to have a shot at the win. It will be interesting to see what RB do if Bottas starts on softs and is leading the first lap

Why not start Perez on softs too to cover Bottas?

Because Bottas may not and then Perez is screwed.

[Phil]

As fast Hamilton was and will be, starting 10th pretty much puts him out of contention for the win unless something out of the ordinary happens IMO. Even if Bottas is leading the GP and holding up Max, they will still be far in the distance. If Bottas drives to slow, he’ll be vulnerable to being overtaken. If he is quick, Hamilton wont claw back that time and disadvantage, even if he is the fasted car on track. Safety car and lots of luck could go along way, but yeah, i am not getting my hopes up.

[NathanOlder]

I have a feeling Lewis will start on hards. Didn’t they do that at Monza?

That would easily get him a podium, but I suspect it would be too safe of a strategy for the win as a huge amount of time would be lost not being able to get past slower cars quite as fast.

I dont think the hards are the way to go , You start the race with a tyre disadvantage, then when your tyre becomes better, the medium runners pit, under cut you , then you have to pass them again. Go on mediums , and undercut the guys around you is what I would be trying. Aggressive strategy and a chance to pass guys right fromt he start. On mediums, if he passes 2 or 3 cars on the opening lap or 2, he's right in the mix.

[politburo]

As fast Hamilton was and will be, starting 10th pretty much puts him out of contention for the win unless something out of the ordinary happens IMO. Even if Bottas is leading the GP and holding up Max, they will still be far in the distance. If Bottas drives to slow, he’ll be vulnerable to being overtaken. If he is quick, Hamilton wont claw back that time and disadvantage, even if he is the fasted car on track. Safety car and lots of luck could go along way, but yeah, i am not getting my hopes up.

You are setting up Hamilton as the underdog, in contrast I have already placed my bet on Hamilton win, Podium at worst. The only way Hamilton does not contend for the win is if Max takes the lead from Bottas on Lap 1. Otherwise, it's really game on. This is not Mexico were all the cars are going +340 km/hr on the straight thus minimizing overtakes, here Merc have a very clear delta, 10 or so km/hr faster than the other fastest cars in that midfield. Hamiton could be done overtaking the midfield by Lap 10, even if he's 10 or so seconds behind Verstappen in 2nd place it will be more than possible, we all know what happened in Silverstone, he was 15 seconds behind Leclerc and won the race with 3 or 4 laps to spare. Time gap is nothing for the W12 in Lewis' hands.

[NathanOlder]

As fast Hamilton was and will be, starting 10th pretty much puts him out of contention for the win unless something out of the ordinary happens IMO. Even if Bottas is leading the GP and holding up Max, they will still be far in the distance. If Bottas drives to slow, he’ll be vulnerable to being overtaken. If he is quick, Hamilton wont claw back that time and disadvantage, even if he is the fasted car on track. Safety car and lots of luck could go along way, but yeah, i am not getting my hopes up.

I do agree with your point, although we have seen many many times, Lewis is able to beat Bottas in a race by 20+ seconds when Max is pushing Lewis. This weekend Lewis pace was way better than Bottas on Friday. In both sessions he was half a second a lap quicker than Bottas which is unusual, but with the new ICE, it makes more sense. So I would say if Lewis can clear Perez in 20 laps, and still be 10-15 seconds behind the lead, he still has a chance at it.

[Bill_Kar]

Phenomenal drive from VB, CS, LH. Bravo.

Hamilton was in the zone. I somewhat expected it, because he always bounces back when something unfortunate happens to him. He has an average season so far, but yesterday was the glimpse of the 7-times world champion material.

Now, regarding the race, let's not forget, that Verstappen has great pace as well. So it depends.

If Verstappen is P1 in first corner, it's done. Hamilton will fight for P2, albeit it won't be that easy, as in the sprint. If not, then Hamilton has a long shot there. Not a favourite in my books, though (as I've heard from some people).

[Mr.S]

Safety Car is Lewis' best bet for a win. Max was quicker in race pace in the sprint vs Lewis even though Hamilton had more top speed. At best Lewis will be 2 tenths quicker with full fuel tanks & warmer weather. Verstappen will be 10s+ by the time Lewis will come & it will take another Lewis 40-50 laps to get anywhere near Verstappen assuming 2 Tenth Delta. With 3 Tenth Delta, it is still 30+ laps. There has not been a single race where Lewis was 5 tenths quicker consistently in race pace than Bottas so let us not create fantasy whimsical scenarios - Over 1 lap you can get 3-4 tenths but on race pace it narrows down - Bottas for example was as fast as Hamilton in the sprint (His fastest lap was quicker than Lewis) & Max's fastest lap was even faster !

I do see a Hamilton podium in-case Sainz continues to stay ahead of Perez. I see Hamilton @ P3. If Perez goes past Sainz in the 1st couple of laps & pulls a 10s gap on Hamilton in the 1st 7-8 laps, he also has a good chance of keeping Hamilton behind. P3 or P4 for me. This chances if Sainz for example overtakes Verstappen & manages to keep him behind for a few more laps & Lewis charges. This changes if Lewis makes 2-3 positions in Lap 1 & if up 5-6th by Lap 3-4 odd. In that case, P3 is a certainty & he can try for the win in Bottas in ahead (may try holding off Max & fending him with higher top speed).

Degradation & Temperature is an issue, Pitstops & strategy is an issue. Just too many variables ! Verstappen needs to win & hope Perez finishes P3 (by overtaking Sainz on Lap 1). That will stretch his 21 point lead to 33 odd. Even a Hamilton P3, Max win will give him a 31 point lead. Winning here is very important - Yesterday's loss in sprint (& win by Bottas) can have a bigger impact than people think (With Bottas starting on pole)

[Stu]

I'm guessing they check these things as regularly as other teams. If the 0.2 mm is correct, then clearly this is something that could have happened during that very session. 0.2mm is nothing!! the average human hair is 0.075mm so this 0.2mm is LESS than 3 hairs!

And it was 94 not 95.

Thanks for the correction on the year for the Schumacher DQ. My point with the checking of the part for wear, is that there would be a known amount of wear that will take place with activation, this is how you would life a part such as this (especially with the regulation having a ‘hard maximum’ for the allowed dimension); don’t forget, due to parc ferme applying from the start of qualifying, this rear wing would then go on to complete qualifying, FP2, sprint race & GP and still must remain within the ‘hard maximum’. Plainly, in this instance, their internal processes have failed!

OR…

The FIA/scrutineers infrequently check this dimension and Mercedes have now had their own grey-area discovered.

TBF, this could have been going on for ages (years?), and the ‘flexi-wing saga’ from earlier this year was just a political game.

Who knows??

If, as it seems, Red Bull highlighted this to scrutineers once qualifying had commenced(???), they are being reasonably fair-minded toward their championship rival (in that Mercedes have now had the opportunity to replace an out of regulation part). I would have waited until the GP started & going for the full race DQ for maximum competitive advantage!!

I doubt Redbull would have noticed a 0.2mm difference on only one side of the DRS from tv footage but Mercedes didn’t. Not only that but I think RB went to the FIA about wing flex rather than the DRS slot gap.

For several years they have been estimating engine power from sound.
The FIA have now given them ALL reference points on the rear wing, along with live coverage on the rear view. Indeed the FIA themselves are supposedly using these for enforcement. If a team thinks that something untoward is occurring, they will have people who are monitoring (and probably using very precise software for it too).
This will be how Mercedes latched into the Red Bull wing flex (even though it passed the test), there is a certain irony to Mercedes being caught by the same rule.

Their DRS slot measured 0.2mm above the ‘hard maximum’ after qualifying, where would it be after the rest of the weekend? If that is caused by wear (that Red Bull may not be able to measure), how much flex in that element are they seeing at speed?

Don’t forget, if the rules state a ‘hard maximum’, it likely pays to utilise it.

[Restomaniac]

Vettel saying Vettel things.

[Starkblood80]

Thanks for the correction on the year for the Schumacher DQ. My point with the checking of the part for wear, is that there would be a known amount of wear that will take place with activation, this is how you would life a part such as this (especially with the regulation having a ‘hard maximum’ for the allowed dimension); don’t forget, due to parc ferme applying from the start of qualifying, this rear wing would then go on to complete qualifying, FP2, sprint race & GP and still must remain within the ‘hard maximum’. Plainly, in this instance, their internal processes have failed!

OR…

The FIA/scrutineers infrequently check this dimension and Mercedes have now had their own grey-area discovered.

TBF, this could have been going on for ages (years?), and the ‘flexi-wing saga’ from earlier this year was just a political game.

Who knows??

If, as it seems, Red Bull highlighted this to scrutineers once qualifying had commenced(???), they are being reasonably fair-minded toward their championship rival (in that Mercedes have now had the opportunity to replace an out of regulation part). I would have waited until the GP started & going for the full race DQ for maximum competitive advantage!!

I doubt Redbull would have noticed a 0.2mm difference on only one side of the DRS from tv footage but Mercedes didn’t. Not only that but I think RB went to the FIA about wing flex rather than the DRS slot gap.

For several years they have been estimating engine power from sound.
The FIA have now given them ALL reference points on the rear wing, along with live coverage on the rear view. Indeed the FIA themselves are supposedly using these for enforcement. If a team thinks that something untoward is occurring, they will have people who are monitoring (and probably using very precise software for it too).
This will be how Mercedes latched into the Red Bull wing flex (even though it passed the test), there is a certain irony to Mercedes being caught by the same rule.

Their DRS slot measured 0.2mm above the ‘hard maximum’ after qualifying, where would it be after the rest of the weekend? If that is caused by wear (that Red Bull may not be able to measure), how much flex in that element are they seeing at speed?

Don’t forget, if the rules state a ‘hard maximum’, it likely pays to utilise it.

I think you’re confusing two separate “issues” with Mercedes rear wing.
One is redbulls allegation that it is flexing too much, and it this point it’s nothing more than an allegation so I’m not sure how you think they’ve been “caught”
The second issue which has nothing to do with Redbulls allegation is the damage suffered to Hamilton’s DRS mechanism which lead to his car failing scrutiny.
Redbull didn’t go to the stewards or the FIA about the second issue.
As for the reference points you mention, I’m not sure they’re even visible with the DRS open are they and even so there’s literally no way they would pick up such a small deviation on only one side of the wing.

[Starkblood80]

Safety Car is Lewis' best bet for a win. Max was quicker in race pace in the sprint vs Lewis even though Hamilton had more top speed. At best Lewis will be 2 tenths quicker with full fuel tanks & warmer weather. Verstappen will be 10s+ by the time Lewis will come & it will take another Lewis 40-50 laps to get anywhere near Verstappen assuming 2 Tenth Delta. With 3 Tenth Delta, it is still 30+ laps. There has not been a single race where Lewis was 5 tenths quicker consistently in race pace than Bottas so let us not create fantasy whimsical scenarios - Over 1 lap you can get 3-4 tenths but on race pace it narrows down - Bottas for example was as fast as Hamilton in the sprint (His fastest lap was quicker than Lewis) & Max's fastest lap was even faster !

I do see a Hamilton podium in-case Sainz continues to stay ahead of Perez. I see Hamilton @ P3. If Perez goes past Sainz in the 1st couple of laps & pulls a 10s gap on Hamilton in the 1st 7-8 laps, he also has a good chance of keeping Hamilton behind. P3 or P4 for me. This chances if Sainz for example overtakes Verstappen & manages to keep him behind for a few more laps & Lewis charges. This changes if Lewis makes 2-3 positions in Lap 1 & if up 5-6th by Lap 3-4 odd. In that case, P3 is a certainty & he can try for the win in Bottas in ahead (may try holding off Max & fending him with higher top speed).

Degradation & Temperature is an issue, Pitstops & strategy is an issue. Just too many variables ! Verstappen needs to win & hope Perez finishes P3 (by overtaking Sainz on Lap 1). That will stretch his 21 point lead to 33 odd. Even a Hamilton P3, Max win will give him a 31 point lead. Winning here is very important - Yesterday's loss in sprint (& win by Bottas) can have a bigger impact than people think (With Bottas starting on pole)

Max had quicker race pace over Lewis? Seriously what race were you watching? At one point Hamilton was 6 tenths quicker that those at the front. It’s not all about a single fastest lap.
I can’t help notice your posts a constantly s***ing on Mercedes/Hamilton while glorifying RB/Max, you don’t seem to be able to see things objectively.

[PlatinumZealot]

Thanks for the correction on the year for the Schumacher DQ. My point with the checking of the part for wear, is that there would be a known amount of wear that will take place with activation, this is how you would life a part such as this (especially with the regulation having a ‘hard maximum’ for the allowed dimension); don’t forget, due to parc ferme applying from the start of qualifying, this rear wing would then go on to complete qualifying, FP2, sprint race & GP and still must remain within the ‘hard maximum’. Plainly, in this instance, their internal processes have failed!

OR…

The FIA/scrutineers infrequently check this dimension and Mercedes have now had their own grey-area discovered.

TBF, this could have been going on for ages (years?), and the ‘flexi-wing saga’ from earlier this year was just a political game.

Who knows??

If, as it seems, Red Bull highlighted this to scrutineers once qualifying had commenced(???), they are being reasonably fair-minded toward their championship rival (in that Mercedes have now had the opportunity to replace an out of regulation part). I would have waited until the GP started & going for the full race DQ for maximum competitive advantage!!

I doubt Redbull would have noticed a 0.2mm difference on only one side of the DRS from tv footage but Mercedes didn’t. Not only that but I think RB went to the FIA about wing flex rather than the DRS slot gap.

For several years they have been estimating engine power from sound.
The FIA have now given them ALL reference points on the rear wing, along with live coverage on the rear view. Indeed the FIA themselves are supposedly using these for enforcement. If a team thinks that something untoward is occurring, they will have people who are monitoring (and probably using very precise software for it too).
This will be how Mercedes latched into the Red Bull wing flex (even though it passed the test), there is a certain irony to Mercedes being caught by the same rule.

Their DRS slot measured 0.2mm above the ‘hard maximum’ after qualifying, where would it be after the rest of the weekend? If that is caused by wear (that Red Bull may not be able to measure), how much flex in that element are they seeing at speed?

Don’t forget, if the rules state a ‘hard maximum’, it likely pays to utilise it.

You cant estimate engine power from sound with these turbo engines.
It was easy to do this with the NA engines because you had straight pipe exhausts and the volumetric efficiency of all the engines (torque) were very much within a few percent if that much. So you could easily use the sound pressure (Db) the frequency, the timbre and all sorts of other measures to compare engines.

The turbo charge engines have a bunch of stuff muffling and distorting all of that.

The teams now use GPS and the gears ratios to sort of estimate the horsepower but the aero and the ERS obviously muddles things up. Even now RedBull are scratching their heads over how much power Mercedes has.

[Fulcrum]

The start has the capacity to be a lot more chaotic for Hamilton than the sprint race was. Cars behind as well as in front, and most will be starting on softer compounds than he is likely to run in the first stint.

That risk aside, if Hamilton makes places on the first lap (e.g. 7th, 8th, 9th), the podium is the absolute minimum race result.

I'm sure the new engine helps, but the fact Bottas was able to hold position relative to Verstappen on a degrading compound of tyre suggests Mercedes have the upper hand on this circuit. And Hamilton is in another league this weekend.

Outside chance we see Hamilton catch Verstappen and have to pass on track. Could be another coming together on the horizon.

[Laserguru]

On top of that we should not forget that since last Friday Mercedes rear wing is being investigated for flexing above 260 kmh…

SO we just make things up now ? where the FIA document about the rear wing being investigated ?

I am not a lawyer, but being reported by a competitor team for infringement to me implies being investigated but in fact I suppose the investigation first needs to be preceded by an investigation on the complaint.

So I just learned I was misinformed by a prior article and RBR only saked fia for clarification.

https://www.gpfans.com/en/f1-news/72151 ... ck-horner/

[cooken]

...

I doubt Redbull would have noticed a 0.2mm difference on only one side of the DRS from tv footage but Mercedes didn’t. Not only that but I think RB went to the FIA about wing flex rather than the DRS slot gap.

Their DRS slot measured 0.2mm above the ‘hard maximum’ after qualifying, where would it be after the rest of the weekend? If that is caused by wear (that Red Bull may not be able to measure), how much flex in that element are they seeing at speed?

Where is this fabled 0.2mm actually coming from? Seems like someone just made it up and now everyone is happy to play along.

The stewards report makes no mention of it, only that it failed to achieve the required 10N at one spot. In fact, it is established within the report that the static measurement with no load applied is in within the 85mm requirement.

https://www.fia.com/sites/default/files ... %20DRS.pdf