I know it's wishful thinking (in the case of the 2023 scenario) but indulge me and say if that is pure coincidence or not the following F1 history:
1. The 2006 F1 championship vs. the 2021 one
In 2006 - ALO (the young pretender) at Renault and SCH (the old established champion) in a Ferrari was fiercely battling, with the former having the upper hand in the first part of the season due to his car`s being faster. Then in the second part, Ferrari has the car speed superiority and there is an incredible recovery from the latter driver until his engine blows in the almost last race (in fact it was the penultimate race at Suzuka). So the end of the championship was down to a mechanical reason rather than a sports one.
In 2021 - the same story between a young gun - VER in an RB car is battling hard with HAM, an established champion who drives a car which was winning the last championships (4 in Ferrari`s case and 7 in Merc`s case). In the first part, RB's car is faster, then after Silverstone Merc`s car has the edge and HAM gets momentum and recovers the points lost until the last race when the former driver wins due to a discretional race director's decision rather than in a sportive manner.
2. The 2005 F1 championship vs. the 2022 one
In 2005 - ALO in the same Renault car is battling with RAI in a faster McLaren car and also with SCH who was running the same Ferrari car. But this time FIA was enforcing the one-tyre for the entire race rule in order to stop Ferrar`s strake of championship wins. Thus the Renault and McLaren cars which were running on Michelin tyres has the upper hand over the struggling Ferrari car running on Bridgestone tyres. In the first part of the season, RAI has a superior car and take advantage but due to poor reliability loses the championship to ALO, with a struggling SCH who won just a single race - the infamous Indianapolis race.
In 2022 - there are major car regulation changes (maybe the biggest one in F1 history) and LEC (aka RAI) in a Ferrari car (aka McLaren of 2005) has a faster car in the first part of the season than VER (aka ALO) RB car (aka Renault 2005) who takes advantage and win easily the championship from both poor Ferrari`s car reliability but also from the car updates that were brought of the second part of the season. HAM is struggling with a Merc car that has many issues due to the new regs and is ending with a distant 6th place in the WDC.
3. The 2004 F1 championship vs. the 2023 one
In 2004 - there was a total domination season for the Ferrari car and SCH driver superiority with a distant 3rd Renault finishing in WCC and a 4th place for ALO ...
Now 2023 could be the same as in 2004, this time around both HAM & W14 has a "tour de force" season with VER/RB car needing to recognize that they are now the 3rd force in the championship after LEC & Ferrari car.
Therefore, for the sake of the fun feel free to fill in the blanks on what you think it`ll happen