AR3-GP wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2023 8:18 pm
I don't think it's contentious to think Mercedes can only go up from here.
I guess we have to define here what is "current state" to discuss about going up.
This year, there were races where Mercedes was pretty much 2nd ( Spain, Singapore, Texas, Mexico), sometimes they were 4-5th ( Bahrain, Azerbaijan, Austria, Brazil), but mostly 3rd /3rd-ish.
Also, there wasn't any kind of linear progression, either backwards or forwards. Ferrari & McLaren certainly upped their game as season progressed, whereas AM regressed.
But, it's fair to say that there is a good chance that this trends continues, hence Mercedes will have to face Ferrari and McLaren being strong from March. That is my baseline scenario at least, until proven otherwise.
With that in mind, and the fact that there is a concept change for Mercedes, IMO the first target for 2024 is to bring a car that can compete (not necessarily beat) against these two teams, right from the start. Not in Spain or Canada (where the first-second round of upgrades usually come into play), but in Bahrain. Then, Mercedes can aim to claim that 2nd place through assimilating this new concept and prove it through the upgrades.
The next bit is crucial, I think. When the summer break is over, if they have claimed that 2nd spot and reduce the relative gap to RB significantly, then OK. If not, surely there will be voices calling for aiming for 2026.