2025 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[AR3-GP]

I was looking at last stint race pace from last year to this year. McLaren have improved by ~1 second, Red Bull by ~0.7 to ~0.8 seconds. There's really not much more to see. Red Bull were 4 tenths slower last year in the last stint and now overall it makes sense that they were 6 to 7 tenths slower regardless of whatever tire cooling magic McLaren have come up with.

TLDR, we were slower last year and failed to not only catch up but also got out-developed even more.

I am not sure but have people considered the fact that Red Bull car ceiling might just be this lol?

I don't think the last stint is a true depiction (for Max). It's probably slightly better than that. Verstappen was trapped in the dirty air of Russell. He was under 2 seconds from lap 41 to lap 54. So probably faster, but not as much margin as the Mclarens who could get close and overtake any car.

How much quicker though? Max wasn't significantly quicker than George. Maybe a couple of tenths? That still puts us half a second a lap behind.

Even in 2023, Red Bull kept saying they were hitting a ceiling. Only McLaren said they have had a linear development curve so far but they already lost most of the regulation cycle and had plenty of wind tunnel time as well to get here.

Yes I suspect maybe 2 tenths quicker than the Mercedes, so half a second behind but the rest of the lap time is not traditional aero development (lacking downforce). It's just the tires overheating. If they manage to cool the tires more, things will look very different. It's not a question of a "ceiling". It's that the tire overheating works against the aerodynamic improvements. F1 is a tire formula now.

[f1isgood]

I don't think the last stint is a true depiction (for Max). It's probably slightly better than that. Verstappen was trapped in the dirty air of Russell. He was under 2 seconds from lap 41 to lap 54. So probably faster, but not as much margin as the Mclarens who could get close and overtake any car.

How much quicker though? Max wasn't significantly quicker than George. Maybe a couple of tenths? That still puts us half a second a lap behind.

Even in 2023, Red Bull kept saying they were hitting a ceiling. Only McLaren said they have had a linear development curve so far but they already lost most of the regulation cycle and had plenty of wind tunnel time as well to get here.

Yes I suspect maybe 2 tenths quicker than the Mercedes, so half a second behind but the rest of the lap time is not traditional aero development (lacking downforce). It's just the tires overheating. If they manage to cool the tires more, things will look very different. It's not a question of a "ceiling". It's that the tire overheating works against the aerodynamic improvements.

But Max is losing half a second just in Sector 1 on brand new hards to Norris! I can understand tires overheating after a while in the stints but brand new tires as well?

Also, I forgot to say this but I don't believe either McLaren drivers are as fast as Max is over a race stint either. I think McLaren do have a bigger advantage than we see anyways.

[AR3-GP]

But Max is losing half a second just in Sector 1 on brand new hards to Norris! I can understand tires overheating after a while in the stints but brand new tires as well?

They were never on tires of comparable age. Verstappen pitted at the end of lap 26 for the hard tires. The Mclarens pitted at the end of lap 29. So their tires were 3 laps younger when they started that stint. The tires reach their stint temperature quickly and in Red Bull's case it's over the point where the tires have the most grip. In qualifying, the Mclarens only had an advantage of 1-2 tenths.

Also, I forgot to say this but I don't believe either McLaren drivers are as fast as Max is over a race stint either. I think McLaren do have a bigger advantage than we see anyways.

They don't have to worry about whether a different driver can make the Mclaren go faster because Mclaren is not changing their drivers.

[f1isgood]

AR3 correct me if I am wrong but relatively cooler tires help you with thermal degradation. NOR's fastest lap and VER's fastest lap indicate both are evenly matched in high speed and NOR makes up 7 tenths in the section below the bridge and the last corner.... How is such difference even possible? Do cooler tires give you more mechanical grip? But you somehow magically also need to have tire temperatures for high speed right? Maybe the thermostat you described is perfect here I guess.

See the first few laps on hards -- the performance gains is nuts.


Again see the gain in just the slow speed -- more than 5 tenths!

[AR3-GP]

AR3 correct me if I am wrong but relatively cooler tires help you with thermal degradation. NOR's fastest lap and VER's fastest lap indicate both are evenly matched in high speed and NOR makes up 7 tenths in the section below the bridge and the last corner.... How is such difference even possible? Do cooler tires give you more mechanical grip? But you somehow magically also need to have tire temperatures for high speed right? Maybe the thermostat you described is perfect here I guess.

See the first few laps on hards -- the performance gains is nuts.
https://i.imgur.com/kDm2kEN.png

Again see the gain in just the slow speed -- more than 5 tenths!
https://i.imgur.com/4hVkzTn.png

Yes, cooler tires give you more mechanical grip in the middle sector. "Cool" just means closer optimum, not cold (so no issue in high speed for Mclaren). Red Bull tires run higher than optimum temperature. The RB21 is by no means a perfect car and they have balance "issues" and some understeer but the biggest performance differentiator right now is the overheating of the tires. They run big rear wing in vain (cost straightline speed) and just makes car even more compromised. If they can cool the tires, it will unlock a lot of the potential that is there from the aero package. Even in the qualifying lap, Mclaren gains some tenths because the tires have a stable temperature across the lap. Max struggled in qualifying in Miami to have tires at optimum temps for all of the sectors.

[f1isgood]

AR3 correct me if I am wrong but relatively cooler tires help you with thermal degradation. NOR's fastest lap and VER's fastest lap indicate both are evenly matched in high speed and NOR makes up 7 tenths in the section below the bridge and the last corner.... How is such difference even possible? Do cooler tires give you more mechanical grip? But you somehow magically also need to have tire temperatures for high speed right? Maybe the thermostat you described is perfect here I guess.

See the first few laps on hards -- the performance gains is nuts.
https://i.imgur.com/kDm2kEN.png

Again see the gain in just the slow speed -- more than 5 tenths!
https://i.imgur.com/4hVkzTn.png

Yes, cooler tires give you more mechanical grip in the middle sector. "Cool" just means closer optimum, not cold (so no issue in high speed for Mclaren). Red Bull tires run higher than optimum temperature. The RB21 is by no means a perfect car and they have balance "issues" and some understeer but the biggest performance differentiator right now is the overheating of the tires. They run big rear wing in vain (cost straightline speed) and just makes car even more compromised. If they can cool the tires, it will unlock a lot of the potential that is there from the aero package.

I see. So in that close-to-ideal scenario that you describe, Red Bull should gain in their areas of strength a little more (S1) and lose to McLaren (S2) but over a lap it should all even out.

[Mostlyeels]

https://i.postimg.cc/MT9pccZp/image.png

Autoracer seems to be sure that Red bull is on to it.

Tomlinson (MK based red bull engineer who used to be in trackside team until 2025) also tweeted in a reply claiming that the amus article about red bull trying to figure out what McLaren are doing using thermal imaging etc was "old news". Together with Autoracer info maybe red bull are close to implementing a solution

The thermal camera angle I think is old news. I remember a photo of a Ferrari engineer from about 10 years ago, with a thermal camera, taking photos of the cars from above the pit lane, so teams have been doing that part of things for quite a while now.

[AR3-GP]

AR3 correct me if I am wrong but relatively cooler tires help you with thermal degradation. NOR's fastest lap and VER's fastest lap indicate both are evenly matched in high speed and NOR makes up 7 tenths in the section below the bridge and the last corner.... How is such difference even possible? Do cooler tires give you more mechanical grip? But you somehow magically also need to have tire temperatures for high speed right? Maybe the thermostat you described is perfect here I guess.

See the first few laps on hards -- the performance gains is nuts.
https://i.imgur.com/kDm2kEN.png

Again see the gain in just the slow speed -- more than 5 tenths!
https://i.imgur.com/4hVkzTn.png

Yes, cooler tires give you more mechanical grip in the middle sector. "Cool" just means closer optimum, not cold (so no issue in high speed for Mclaren). Red Bull tires run higher than optimum temperature. The RB21 is by no means a perfect car and they have balance "issues" and some understeer but the biggest performance differentiator right now is the overheating of the tires. They run big rear wing in vain (cost straightline speed) and just makes car even more compromised. If they can cool the tires, it will unlock a lot of the potential that is there from the aero package.

I see. So in that close-to-ideal scenario that you describe, Red Bull should gain in their areas of strength a little more (S1) and lose to McLaren (S2) but over a lap it should all even out.

In qualifying, I don't think they would gain more in S1 (less compared to the other sectors). They would gain more in S2 and S3 where the soft tires don't start to overheat. Marko said after qualy that the big gains in S2 (3 tenths) and S3 (1 tenth) on the final lap came from a different tire preparation and track cooling to 36C. Not perfect, but still under better control than the previous laps when the track was hotter.

For the race, there can be many effects. Verstappen was struggling with overheating tires AND overheating brakes (they are linked). Overheating of the brakes and tires have torpedoed the car's performance. The grip reduces, the braking distance is longer, and the driver has to drive more conservatively. Miami was bad, very bad , but if they would only manage to improve the cooling to the tires and brakes, they would gain a lot of laptime. Would that be enough to catch or surpass Mclaren? I believe so.

[AR3-GP]

https://i.postimg.cc/MT9pccZp/image.png

Autoracer seems to be sure that Red bull is on to it.

Tomlinson (MK based red bull engineer who used to be in trackside team until 2025) also tweeted in a reply claiming that the amus article about red bull trying to figure out what McLaren are doing using thermal imaging etc was "old news". Together with Autoracer info maybe red bull are close to implementing a solution

The thermal camera angle I think is old news. I remember a photo of a Ferrari engineer from about 10 years ago, with a thermal camera, taking photos of the cars from above the pit lane, so teams have been doing that part of things for quite a while now.

The point isn't that no one knows what a thermal camera is or never used on in F1. We've even seen FOM show thermal imaging on the broadcast many years ago. The point was that as people want to understand why the MCL-39 is so good, Red Bull specifically noticed this difference in the cake tin temperatures at the rear on the Mclaren. It evidence which shows that there is a strong connection between their tire management and the brake ducts.

Organic's point is that Red Bull's thermal photos of the Mclaren are "old news" as in they are from much earlier in the season, not Jeddah or Miami.

[avantman]

Yes, cooler tires give you more mechanical grip in the middle sector. "Cool" just means closer optimum, not cold (so no issue in high speed for Mclaren). Red Bull tires run higher than optimum temperature. The RB21 is by no means a perfect car and they have balance "issues" and some understeer but the biggest performance differentiator right now is the overheating of the tires. They run big rear wing in vain (cost straightline speed) and just makes car even more compromised. If they can cool the tires, it will unlock a lot of the potential that is there from the aero package. Even in the qualifying lap, Mclaren gains some tenths because the tires have a stable temperature across the lap. Max struggled in qualifying in Miami to have tires at optimum temps for all of the sectors.

It was hotter during the race in Jeddah than in Miami both in terms of air and surface temperature. Same C3-C4 compounds. No overheating whatsoever in Jeddah, but suddenly a lot of overhearing on C3 hard immediately out of the pits? Makes very little sense if any at all. I see a lot of copium here in this thread. Mclaren is just faster race car, much faster race car on some tracks, just like red bull was much faster race car than Ferrari since Spa 2022, or Mercedes was much faster race car than the RB16/B for the large part of 2021 season where Max could be faster by as much as 3 tenths in Q3 on soft, but would be significantly slower on medium and especially hard on Sunday. Slower and with more deg.

[AR3-GP]

Yes, cooler tires give you more mechanical grip in the middle sector. "Cool" just means closer optimum, not cold (so no issue in high speed for Mclaren). Red Bull tires run higher than optimum temperature. The RB21 is by no means a perfect car and they have balance "issues" and some understeer but the biggest performance differentiator right now is the overheating of the tires. They run big rear wing in vain (cost straightline speed) and just makes car even more compromised. If they can cool the tires, it will unlock a lot of the potential that is there from the aero package. Even in the qualifying lap, Mclaren gains some tenths because the tires have a stable temperature across the lap. Max struggled in qualifying in Miami to have tires at optimum temps for all of the sectors.

It was hotter during the race in Jeddah than in Miami both in terms of air and surface temperature. Same C3-C4 compounds. No overheating whatsoever in Jeddah, but suddenly a lot of overhearing on C3 hard immediately out of the pits? Makes very little sense if any at all. I see a lot of copium here in this thread. Mclaren is just faster race car, much faster race car on some tracks, just like red bull was much faster race car than Ferrari since Spa 2022, or Mercedes was much faster race car than the RB16/B for the large part of 2021 season where Max could be faster by as much as 3 tenths in Q3 on soft, but would be significantly slower on medium and especially hard on Sunday. Slower and with more deg.

Miami - day race, sun beating on bodywork, tires, and tarmac.
Jeddah - night race, no sun.

Jeddah - high average speed, 2nd highest of the calendar (251 km/h)
Miami - bottom 10 average speed (224 km/h),

Higher average speeds leads to more cooling of the tire surfaces by direct contact with the airflow and more airflow into, in and around the brake ducts/tins.

Jeddah - front limited, less sensitive to rear tire overheating
Miami - rear limited, more sensitive to rear tire overheating


There are many reasons for the different outcomes at each race. Cooling the tires more will not be "Easy". If it were, everyone would already be doing it. However I think if Red Bull could implement something that is more effective, they will unlock a lot of performance from the current package. They would be able to run less rear wing, more consistent braking performance, more energy to harvest, more grip in low speed, less tire degradation, less thermal degradation, more pressure on the Mclaren drivers. Smalls details can have a big impact.

[LookingGlass]

https://i.postimg.cc/MT9pccZp/image.png

Autoracer seems to be sure that Red bull is on to it.

Tomlinson (MK based red bull engineer who used to be in trackside team until 2025) also tweeted in a reply claiming that the amus article about red bull trying to figure out what McLaren are doing using thermal imaging etc was "old news". Together with Autoracer info maybe red bull are close to implementing a solution

The thermal camera angle I think is old news. I remember a photo of a Ferrari engineer from about 10 years ago, with a thermal camera, taking photos of the cars from above the pit lane, so teams have been doing that part of things for quite a while now.

I believe you're thinking of Ruth Buscombe at Ferrari

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hqHsMxq-mwE/ ... 5no160.jpg

[ispano6]

Miami - day race, sun beating on bodywork, tires, and tarmac.
Jeddah - night race, no sun.

Jeddah - high average speed, 2nd highest of the calendar (251 km/h)
Miami - bottom 10 average speed (224 km/h),

Higher average speeds leads to more cooling of the tire surfaces by direct contact with the airflow and more airflow into, in and around the brake ducts/tins.

Jeddah - front limited, less sensitive to rear tire overheating
Miami - rear limited, more sensitive to rear tire overheating


There are many reasons for the different outcomes at each race. Cooling the tires more will not be "Easy". If it were, everyone would already be doing it. However I think if Red Bull could implement something that is more effective, they will unlock a lot of performance from the current package. They would be able to run less rear wing, more consistent braking performance, more energy to harvest, more grip in low speed, less tire degradation, less thermal degradation, more pressure on the Mclaren drivers. Smalls details can have a big impact.

Not to say that Red Bull doesn't have good strategists, but McLaren may have a technological advantage in their partnership with Google and AWS. It's been touted that McLaren is benefitting from Google Cloud AI computing and I would imagine that they are leveraging AWS Sagemaker. It's been documented by Google themselves in how McLaren is using AI/ML to run in the order of 300 million simulations for a race weekend and perhaps their prediction and optimization modelling is giving them a few tenths here and there, as stated in their Google blog from around this time last year. My team at work have been leveraging Sagemaker and Kinesis and in a cost-cap era you have to do more with less. Cloud AI computing and ML both are pivotal factors and I imagine Randeep Singh is at the forefront of that and McLaren will only get stronger once Will Courtenay comes onboard after gardening leave from Red Bull. Let's hope that Red Bull too have a strong core of ML engineers who can make up for the big shoes that have left.

https://cloud.google.com/transform/mcla ... innovation

[AR3-GP]

It looks like it will be much cooler in Imola next week.

[Paa]

https://i.postimg.cc/MT9pccZp/image.png

Autoracer seems to be sure that Red bull is on to it.

Even Mclaren's advantage in qualifying is dictated by it. They are the only team setting purple third sectors (occasionally Leclerc for a related reason), because their tires stay at optimum temperatures over the entire lap.

Marko's commented few weeks ago, that they'll have an upgrade by Imola and with that they'd match McLaren.
Maybe I'm looking too much into it, but this also seems rather specific to me and suggest they are working on the tyre thing. (if we accept that is the strongest part of McLaren).