2025 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[f1isgood]

Guys, did anyone realistically expect pole from the RB21 ? if yes, wasn't it because of the 'hope' that Imola gave ? But Imola has fast and medium corners, here there is only a little bit of that in S1, and there the car was on par with Mclarens - the 18.2. Even without looking at data, I bet the 'losses' were through the low speed 'descent' from T5 to T8, through the lowe's hairpin. The fundamental problem with the RB21 (and the RB20, and the RB19 , and the RB18) - slow speed rotation without aero, purely from mech.grip - that's never gone. Kerb riding got a bit improved with Imola update, but slow speed weakness is still on the table.
This race was a writeoff anyway (just like Singapore is) with no 'Redbull redeeming' corners that are above 200kph - so relax, guys. Finishing P5 will not be a disaster result. Plus we know the race is an even bigger lottery now, than ever before. Who knows, the P5 can become P2 or even P10. Just 'dial out' this race and watch for enjoyment tomorrow. Both cars need to make it back "alive" without crashing, and be on the points. It isn't worth it, pushing to the ragged edge on a track that simply doesn't suit the suspension design philosophy of the car, right from it's birth.

Amazing analysis, keep up the good work.

What more do we need, the man himself has agreed to the above :
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... vMZlmJ4cq8

It was actually good damage limitation for Red Bull in Championship terms, losing Verstappen only three points to the championship leader Oscar Piastri.

Despite its recent improvements the Red Bull is still fundamentally not suited to slow, bumpy tracks and now heads to a Barcelona circuit which should suit it much better.

After qualifying seven tenths off pole, Verstappen remarked. “We were actually slower than last year in Qualifying, I don't think we have improved what we wanted to improve around here… every year around here we've struggled here with this new generation of cars.

“Only in '23 when we had a massive pace advantage [generally] could we win this race. But all the other years, it's always been a big struggle. We try every single year, but for whatever reason here it never seems to work.”

It was no more competitive in the race. “We didn't have pace of the top three cars. Every time I tried to stay with them, my tyres overheated a bit too much. This is just not our track.”

Verstappen didn't maximize the car in 3 of the 4 years. He is right that the car is not good around Monaco, but he didn't maximize the car in 2022 either. Even in 2022, his first run was poorer than Perez and while Perez crashed when Max was improving there's only speculation beyond that point.

Verstappen will probably also not be good around Baku. It is what it is.

[f1isgood]

I think they missed 1 trick which was staying close to Piastri before he stopped for the first time. PIA had a 3.8 second stop. That was an easy pass through the pits but VER was 3 seconds behind PIA when PIA pitted.

I think they never really considered to stop that early anyway so it was not on their radar.

edit: In hindsight, knowing how the race went, they probably could have secured P3.
edit2: thinking about it, probably even if they overcut Piastri at the first stop, they couldn't have kept the position.
As Piastri could have gone for an early stop to undercut Max, let's say at lap 35 or so. While Max wouldn't have been able to react with only used softs left for him.

(Assuming they overcut Piastri due to bad pitstop) Max would have been ahead on the road and then Hamilton was still in the pit window of Piastri and could be held their indefinitely if Max just slowed down. That would have made it less attractive for Mclaren to pit him for the last stop to undercut. He would be stuck behind Hamilton who had no pace and Hamiton didn't have any reason to stop. He could afford to wait longer for a red flag.

I think the season is still open and it's just going to come down to if the car is fast enough on a consistent basis. If they continue this podium-no podium-podium-no podium streak then it's not going to happen.

This streak has been going on since Qatar. And that is spot on. We ain't wining anything this year if the car can't consistently be there to take points off the McLaren's. Need the next 5 race weekends to all be ones where we can fight for the win and hopefully take the win.

[Paa]

This streak has been going on since Qatar. And that is spot on. We ain't wining anything this year if the car can't consistently be there to take points off the McLaren's. Need the next 5 race weekends to all be ones where we can fight for the win and hopefully take the win.

This.
There are 6 races left until summer break. Max should win at least 4 of those 6 to have an open fight till the end.
3 is borderline, depending on if any of the McLaren driver will come out clearly on top or they continue to take points of each other.

If he only wins 1-2 (or even 0), then it's season over.

[AR3-GP]

This streak has been going on since Qatar. And that is spot on. We ain't wining anything this year if the car can't consistently be there to take points off the McLaren's. Need the next 5 race weekends to all be ones where we can fight for the win and hopefully take the win.

This.
There are 6 races left until summer break. Max should win at least 4 of those 6 to have an open fight till the end.
3 is borderline, depending on if any of the McLaren driver will come out clearly on top or they continue to take points of each other.

If he only wins 1-2 (or even 0), then it's season over.

I would agree that wins in Spain, Silverstone, Spa are do or die but if they can't win 4, then it depends on "how" they lose. If car is fast but they have bad luck (accident, VSC) then that's still a more reasonable position than just being slower every weekend.

I don't think the car would suit Austria or Canada on the evidence of previous traction limited races, but winning in Austria would be significant, to make a 4th win in that stretch. In the absence of winning, then the Mclarens need to stumble somewhere.

[f1isgood]

Also, I think the team as a whole have lost potentially 3 points in China, 7 in Jeddah, 6 in Miami Sprint. I think these 16 points were within control (China they asked Max to be way too conservative in the first stint, admittedly from the evidence in the sprint but still. Max was very fast on the hards later on.)

Anywhere else that we left points on the table? I don't consider the VSC at Miami and any "potential" strategy game at Monaco. Monaco is a saturday race and we maximized there despite not having the car.

[f1isgood]

This streak has been going on since Qatar. And that is spot on. We ain't wining anything this year if the car can't consistently be there to take points off the McLaren's. Need the next 5 race weekends to all be ones where we can fight for the win and hopefully take the win.

This.
There are 6 races left until summer break. Max should win at least 4 of those 6 to have an open fight till the end.
3 is borderline, depending on if any of the McLaren driver will come out clearly on top or they continue to take points of each other.

If he only wins 1-2 (or even 0), then it's season over.

I would agree that wins in Spain, Silverstone, Spa are do or die but if they can't win 4, then it depends on "how" they lose. If car is fast but they have bad luck (accident, VSC) then that's still a more reasonable position than just being slower every weekend.

I think a car as fast as McLaren with Max driving will win 9 times out of 10. So fast is the only criterion. If we are slow, there's no hope anyways.

[f1isgood]

I think we have an outside chance at Canada. This generation of cars hasn't been the best around that track but if we put the car on pole and if the race pace delta is small enough, we can hold on. Max is also quite good around there with 3 consecutive poles and knows how to defend even from much faster cars -- Nico even in 2016 and Sainz in 2022.

Austria is hard to judge. It can be 2022 or 2023 I don't know. 2024 without the botched pitstop probably has us winning just by a tiny margin.

[Paa]

I would agree that wins in Spain, Silverstone, Spa are do or die but if they can't win 4, then it depends on "how" they lose. If car is fast but they have bad luck (accident, VSC) then that's still a more reasonable position than just being slower every weekend.

I don't think the car would suit Austria or Canada on the evidence of previous traction limited races, but winning in Austria would be significant, to make a 4th win in that stretch. In the absence of winning, then the Mclaren's need to stumble somewhere.

Yeah of course, if Red Bull turns out to be at least equal to McLaren and Max only wins 3 by bad luck, then game is on.
But if the pattern continues and Max wins some on his good tracks, then fights for P4-P5 on his not so good tracks, then there is not much to hope for. It will be a slow bleeding out until the end of the season, while the gap increases slowly, but steadily.

[kediown]

[Cs98]

What is this nonsense about "must win" races? We're 1/3 of the way through a marathon season. People are so labile, every race they sit and count points and draw conclusions that they inevitably have to revise when the next batch of points comes in. The championship is a grind, Max needs to stay within striking distance over the second third but there's no "must win" scenario at this point.

[AR3-GP]

What is this nonsense about "must win" races? We're 1/3 of the way through a marathon season. People are so labile, every race they sit and count points and draw conclusions that they inevitably have to revise when the next batch of points comes in. The championship is a grind, Max needs to stay within striking distance over the second third but there's no "must win" scenario at this point.

Max has 2 wins on the season. He will need 7-8 minimum to win the championship. When do you think he should start winning then?

RB must win their favored tracks (Spain, Spa, Silverstone).

[f1isgood]

What is this nonsense about "must win" races? We're 1/3 of the way through a marathon season. People are so labile, every race they sit and count points and draw conclusions that they inevitably have to revise when the next batch of points comes in. The championship is a grind, Max needs to stay within striking distance over the second third but there's no "must win" scenario at this point.

Max is behind, and he has to catch up and the only way he can do that is by finishing ahead of the best cars now, so he has to win.

[Cs98]

What is this nonsense about "must win" races? We're 1/3 of the way through a marathon season. People are so labile, every race they sit and count points and draw conclusions that they inevitably have to revise when the next batch of points comes in. The championship is a grind, Max needs to stay within striking distance over the second third but there's no "must win" scenario at this point.

Max has 2 wins on the season. He will need 7-8 minimum to win the championship.

Norris has 2 wins and sits three points behind someone with 4 wins. Yes, Max will have to win several more races, but exactly how many he would need to win is completely contingent on how others perform.

[Cs98]

What is this nonsense about "must win" races? We're 1/3 of the way through a marathon season. People are so labile, every race they sit and count points and draw conclusions that they inevitably have to revise when the next batch of points comes in. The championship is a grind, Max needs to stay within striking distance over the second third but there's no "must win" scenario at this point.

Max is behind, and he has to catch up and the only way he can do that is by finishing ahead of the best cars now, so he has to win.

He has to outscore over the long run but there's no single weekend he has to win. And with 16 races to go there's no rush.

[Space-heat]

I saw that Sky Sport UK video post-Miami in which Ted Kravitz said "McLaren insist the front wing they're running now is TD compliant", which would align with Stella's comment about looking forward to Barcelona.

I’m skeptical about that. Recent footage still shows their wing flexing noticeably, which suggests they’re pushing the limits of the current rules. By downplaying it, McLaren might be managing expectations. When they slow down, they'll say it wasn't because of that.

They also claimed the China RW TD would leave them unaffected but the AR team confirmed in a recent article it cost them 3-4 km/h top speed. The track will tell. I assume their low speed is what will suffer if anything as that was their weakness before Miami 24’.