2025 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[avantman]

I just took another look on Max/Lando Max/Oscar overlays from Q3 in Japan. Track temperature was much lower just at 29oC, but the overall picture looks very similar to Spain. Max is either on par or better in low speed(than the faster Mclaren driver in particular corner). Biggest Mclaren advantage comes from 150-200kph corners just like in Spain. At the same time both Mclaren are faster down the straights when not using the DRS and had higher top speed (without DRS) on the back straight. All points at the superiority of their aerodynamic package. Yes, they might have a trick or two up their sleeves with regards to rear brake temperature, but that's not the reason behind their superiority on classic aero dependent race tracks.
Their main underlying advantage behind their pace, especially behind their race pace is base aerodynamic superiority. They simply have more downforce in the crucial speed range for the same drag.

This time, probably for the first time all year, at least one of their drivers had a truly decent Q3 session, having both clean mistake free runs, improving significantly on improving track and not make any mistakes whatsoever on a pole lap. That's why we got that gap, second largest only behind Australia. If that was the case in Japan, they would be same 3 tenths up easily, at least 3 tenths up.

[search]

Yeah adds up. According to Rodolfo it's due to be one of the warmest Spanish GP in a while, which isn't ideal

I think the interesting part is that he confirms that McLaren's strength is the rear axle - as I already said last week. Which is also why their tire advantage does not exist on front limited tracks like Imola.

[venkyhere]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GsSaEcAWkAA ... =4096x4096

Rare to see Red Bull setting a purple 3rd sector.

It is also interesting vs the anticipation.(this is not a dig against the certain post, or poster, more like a funfact)

https://i.postimg.cc/yd92x6Ps/pred.jpg

I hope the good S3 translates to competitive race pace.
But even if race pace is on par with McLaren, it would be difficult to win from P3, against two McLarens. And anything else will just further increase the point gap.

yeah yeah

Didn't take into account the terribly hot track temps this year compared to last year, when I posted the expected pole time before the weekend. The cars have improved, that's for sure.

I expected a "typical" qualy run from Max where he hammers S1 and doesn't have tyres left for S3. Surprised to find the opposite. Whether it was because he was conservative in S1 inorder to have tyres to attack S3, or whether it was a case of pushing through the entire lap but the car performance 'showed up' to have bad S1 and superior S3, can't say. I am genuinely perplexed by the poor T1 from Redbull - usually Max is very good with braking later (with full aero aid) than everyone and still making the corner optimally. Right from Friday, it was clear that T4 was going to be a problem. Again, shot my expectation that they would've reduced understeer (T4) and improved kerb ride (T1) with the Imola update.
Regarding T9 and T14, Max was the only guy maintaining consistent 100% throttle (others lifted, even if only by single digit %) but his speed through there is lower (by 1-2 kph) than the other guys, mainly because the speed entering the corner is less than them, which in turn implies that he isn't accelerating as well as them from the previous corner, which in turn means there isn't 'traction' matching up to competition. This was not the case in FP2 and I got fooled into thinking that all of them were 'testing the limits' of T9 and T14 - turns out, McLaren were 'hiding' even in these corners.
Typically the Honda engine has shown slight superiority to the Merc engine, when it comes to accelerating from fast corners (high rpm + high gear), but I suspect the recent 'reliability update'/'new batch' of Merc engines have addressed this deficit.

[avantman]

Regarding T9 and T14, Max was the only guy maintaining consistent 100% throttle (others lifted, even if only by single digit %) but his speed through there is lower (by 1-2 kph) than the other guys, mainly because the speed entering the corner is less than them,which in turn implies that he isn't accelerating as well as them from the previous corner, which in turn means there isn't 'traction' matching up to competition.

Yes, that's downforce or rather lack thereof.

[Sergej]

lol the track temperature championship here we come

I suggest to temper our expectations, realistically our race will be with Leclerc for P3

[f1isgood]

McLaren were comparable with Red Bull in very high speed corners before theri Miami upgrade last year (long corner or immediate direction changes) and after that simply found a much better compromise for lap time both over a lap and over a race distance by being quicker in low-medium speed corners and by losing a bit in high speed corners. It was one of the weaknesses of the RB20 that I thought would be addressed with the RB21. In fact it was a weakness relative to SF24 as well. But looks like Red Bull doesn't know how to fix it or are fundamentally compromised by some design choices they made as early as 2022 as I am sure they know just as well as us where they lack relative to the Orange cars.

This is only one part of the equation. The other part is how McLaren simply lose little performance relative to competition as temperature goes up. That could again be down to cooling, mechanical platform, aerodynamics - whatever people want to call it. And they so far seem to be able to use this to basically drive at very fast speeds and keep the tires in the right window regardless of relative increase in temperature.

Also some posters have noticed that the McLaren also simply runs low (better suspension design amongst other things). There are lots of things that look like they are working for the orange cars. It's just a better engineered car. Even if they did lose due to the TD (which I believe they did because it's just common sense), they have advantages elsewhere to compensate for.

We will probably see them basically run to a delta today as well and half a half a second a lap margin at least. Track is hot, they become quicker relative to everyone else.

[f1isgood]

lol the track temperature championship here we come

I suggest to temper our expectations, realistically our race will be with Leclerc for P3

Yeah, I think Norris' medium stint is going to basically be a repeat today. Leclerc also seems quietly confident this week.

[avantman]

lol the track temperature championship here we come

I suggest to temper our expectations, realistically our race will be with Leclerc for P3

Disagree, Max is going to beat Piastri for 2nd at least today. And if Oscar messes up Mclaren strategy again by driving poor opening stint, forcing the team to pit him prematurely, and pit Lando on very next lap due to papaya rules, sporting fairness all that stuff, that might open a window of opportunities for Max to get to the lead with a bit of luck. Leclerc won't get to P3. He will pay for his stubbornness, grid position is way to important in Spain.

[f1isgood]

lol the track temperature championship here we come

I suggest to temper our expectations, realistically our race will be with Leclerc for P3

Disagree, Max is going to beat Piastri for 2nd at least today. And if Oscar messes up Mclaren strategy again by driving poor opening stint, forcing the team to pit him prematurely, and pit Lando on very next lap due to papaya rules, sporting fairness all that stuff, that might open a window of opportunities for Max to get to the lead with a bit of luck. Leclerc won't get to P3. He will pay for his stubbornness, grid position is way to important in Spain.

When the McLaren's will be 10s up the road after 20 laps, they can do anything avantman

[avantman]

lol the track temperature championship here we come

I suggest to temper our expectations, realistically our race will be with Leclerc for P3

Disagree, Max is going to beat Piastri for 2nd at least today. And if Oscar messes up Mclaren strategy again by driving poor opening stint, forcing the team to pit him prematurely, and pit Lando on very next lap due to papaya rules, sporting fairness all that stuff, that might open a window of opportunities for Max to get to the lead with a bit of luck. Leclerc won't get to P3. He will pay for his stubbornness, grid position is way to important in Spain.

When the McLaren's will be 10s up the road after 20 laps, they can do anything avantman

They are gonna mess up their start and 1st corner again, arent' they?

[f1isgood]

Disagree, Max is going to beat Piastri for 2nd at least today. And if Oscar messes up Mclaren strategy again by driving poor opening stint, forcing the team to pit him prematurely, and pit Lando on very next lap due to papaya rules, sporting fairness all that stuff, that might open a window of opportunities for Max to get to the lead with a bit of luck. Leclerc won't get to P3. He will pay for his stubbornness, grid position is way to important in Spain.

When the McLaren's will be 10s up the road after 20 laps, they can do anything avantman

They are gonna mess up their start and 1st corner again, arent' they?

A man can hope

I think since it's Oscar on pole, he at least seems a bit more decisive with this Lap 1 moves. But we need some drama into Turn 1 for sure for this race to have any utility as far as Red Bull goes.

[avantman]

When the McLaren's will be 10s up the road after 20 laps, they can do anything avantman

They are gonna mess up their start and 1st corner again, arent' they?

A man can hope

I think since it's Oscar on pole, he at least seems a bit more decisive with this Lap 1 moves. But we need some drama into Turn 1 for sure for this race to have any utility as far as Red Bull goes.

Oscar actually had poor starts both in Monaco and Imola where both Russell and Alonso had much better acceleration starting right behind him. That already gives some hopes and takes some of Oscar confidence away.
Also, if it was last year, mclaren would tell drivers to play team game at the start. Which means in this case telling Oscar to move to the right in order to give slipstream to Lando and take it away from Max, having agreed in advance Lando won't put Oscar at danger in T1. just like they did at Monza for example but that time it was Lando on Pole.
This year, I don't know how would they premeditate that having both driver in the Championship fight, drivers would not accept that. Oscar might actually prefer to stay at the left during initial phase if he gets a great start, in order not to drag Lando with him. That will surely opens an opportunity for Max to get to P2 and then undercut Oscar. I do not believe Oscar would be able to open a big gap on stint one.

[f1isgood]

They are gonna mess up their start and 1st corner again, arent' they?

A man can hope

I think since it's Oscar on pole, he at least seems a bit more decisive with this Lap 1 moves. But we need some drama into Turn 1 for sure for this race to have any utility as far as Red Bull goes.

Oscar actually had poor starts both in Monaco and Imola where both Russell and Alonso had much better acceleration starting right behind him. That already gives some hopes and takes some of Oscar confidence away.
Also, if it was last year, mclaren would tell drivers to play team game at the start. Which means in this case telling Oscar to move to the right in order to give slipstream to Lando and take it away from Max, having agreed in advance Lando won't put Oscar at danger in T1. just like they did at Monza for example but that time it was Lando on Pole.
This year, I don't know how would they premeditate that having both driver in the Championship fight, drivers would not accept that. Oscar might actually prefer to stay at the left during initial phase if he gets a great start, in order not to drag Lando with him. That will surely opens an opportunity for Max to get to P2 and then undercut Oscar. I do not believe Oscar would be able to open a big gap on stint one.

Fingers crossed. If we can pass the orange cars into turn 1 and they fight with each other, it's the best case scenario. But overall even if we win, I hope it's on pace and not because orange cars did somehting stupid because then the victory will not be sustainable. And by pace I mean, have similar pace to the McLaren's basically.

[venkyhere]

My reading is : McLaren won't bother about ensuring that they come out first from T1. They will minimize crash/flatspotting risk, and play the waiting game. They should be 1-2 before lap10 as the softs starts to wear away for others.

[f1isgood]

I look forward to seeing the race pace. If FP2 was anything remotely representative it will be more interesting than usual but NOR did show flashes of what could be.