Silly season 2025-2026

[Henk_v]

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We know that Merc and Ferrari are all-in on the new car.

...

McLaren knows, that this is their season, they just brought a major upgrade to win this season. They are in my point of view half a year behind Merc and Ferrari with additionally the penalty for P1 in two seasons.

Merc and Ferrari both have updates still to come and both have stated that they are continuing to try and understand why their current cars are not behaving as they should. That takes time and resources.

McLaren may have their last upgrade, but that will have been pipelined for months.

McLaren have the benefit of being able to focus fully on next season AND they have shown excellent correlation between CFD, Wind Tunnel and real world.

Mercedes have yet to show that they can build a consistently fast car in the ground effect era and Ferrari are, well, being the same Ferrari they have been since 2008!!

That is assuming MCL know why they are fast a d can translate that into 2026. Being fast by no means equals correlation.

[WardenOfTheNorth]

...


We know that Merc and Ferrari are all-in on the new car.

...

McLaren knows, that this is their season, they just brought a major upgrade to win this season. They are in my point of view half a year behind Merc and Ferrari with additionally the penalty for P1 in two seasons.

Merc and Ferrari both have updates still to come and both have stated that they are continuing to try and understand why their current cars are not behaving as they should. That takes time and resources.

McLaren may have their last upgrade, but that will have been pipelined for months.

McLaren have the benefit of being able to focus fully on next season AND they have shown excellent correlation between CFD, Wind Tunnel and real world.

Mercedes have yet to show that they can build a consistently fast car in the ground effect era and Ferrari are, well, being the same Ferrari they have been since 2008!!

That is assuming MCL know why they are fast a d can translate that into 2026. Being fast by no means equals correlation.

Not in isolation, you are correct.

However building fast cars over several seasons AND having updates that all perform as expected suggests that they have a very good understanding of why their car is fast and how to develop it.

[TimW]

That is assuming MCL know why they are fast a d can translate that into 2026. Being fast by no means equals correlation.

Not in isolation, you are correct.

However building fast cars over several seasons AND having updates that all perform as expected suggests that they have a very good understanding of why their car is fast and how to develop it.

Red Bull seemed to have excellent correlation. Got it right in 2021 with the floor changes, and again in 2022 with the biggest aero ruleset changes in a very long time. Even avoiding porpoising.
Yet within a year they lost their way, even without any rule changes

[WardenOfTheNorth]

That is assuming MCL know why they are fast a d can translate that into 2026. Being fast by no means equals correlation.

Not in isolation, you are correct.

However building fast cars over several seasons AND having updates that all perform as expected suggests that they have a very good understanding of why their car is fast and how to develop it.

Red Bull seemed to have excellent correlation. Got it right in 2021 with the floor changes, and again in 2022 with the biggest aero ruleset changes in a very long time. Even avoiding porpoising.
Yet within a year they lost their way, even without any rule changes

This is also true. Nothing is guaranteed, but it still stands to reason that McLaren should be considered as at least as likely as Mercedes to nail the new regulations.

[mzso]

Yet within a year they lost their way, even without any rule changes

McLaren, unlike Red Bull, is not falling apart spectacularly.

[dren]

Fred's going to win his third WDC next season and retire. Stroll will get a victory. Max will announce his move to Aston midyear. Williams and Mclaren will outperform Mercedes. Nobody wants Russel but somehow he retains another season at Mercedes. Sainz finishes 2nd in the championship.

[mzso]

Fred's going to win his third WDC next season and retire. Stroll will get a victory. Max will announce his move to Aston midyear. Williams and Mclaren will outperform Mercedes. Nobody wants Russel but somehow he retains another season at Mercedes. Sainz finishes 2nd in the championship.

What Fred? If you're callind Alonso Fred, it's rather obnoxious.
I don't expect AM to be on top, but likely in race winning contention. For McLaren everything seems to go smoothly nowadays, so I expect them to start at the top, unless someone comes up with a double-diffuser like disruptive development.

[djos]

Fred's going to win his third WDC next season and retire. Stroll will get a victory. Max will announce his move to Aston midyear. Williams and Mclaren will outperform Mercedes. Nobody wants Russel but somehow he retains another season at Mercedes. Sainz finishes 2nd in the championship.

What Fred? If you're callind Alonso Fred, it's rather obnoxious.
I don't expect AM to be on top, but likely in race winning contention. For McLaren everything seems to go smoothly nowadays, so I expect them to start at the top, unless someone comes up with a double-diffuser like disruptive development.

Why is it obnoxious? Fred is just an anglicized adaptation of Fernando, it’s not meant in a derogatory fashion.

[aMessageToCharlie]

Fred's going to win his third WDC next season and retire. Stroll will get a victory. Max will announce his move to Aston midyear. Williams and Mclaren will outperform Mercedes. Nobody wants Russel but somehow he retains another season at Mercedes. Sainz finishes 2nd in the championship.

What Fred? If you're callind Alonso Fred, it's rather obnoxious.
I don't expect AM to be on top, but likely in race winning contention. For McLaren everything seems to go smoothly nowadays, so I expect them to start at the top, unless someone comes up with a double-diffuser like disruptive development.

Why is it obnoxious? Fred is just an anglicized adaptation of Fernando, it’s not meant in a derogatory fashion.

His name is not "Fred" though, so it kinda is derogatory, whether you mean it like that or not. It's like calling Hamilton "Lulu".

I can see AM being one of the top contenders with Newey and the Mercedes PU. Imagine Fred and Lulu battling it out for the WDC once again before retiring. Sign me up.

[dren]

Alonso vs Sainz for the title with the occasional sniff from one of the Mclaren duo.

[De Wet]

What Fred? If you're callind Alonso Fred, it's rather obnoxious.
I don't expect AM to be on top, but likely in race winning contention. For McLaren everything seems to go smoothly nowadays, so I expect them to start at the top, unless someone comes up with a double-diffuser like disruptive development.

Why is it obnoxious? Fred is just an anglicized adaptation of Fernando, it’s not meant in a derogatory fashion.

His name is not "Fred" though, so it kinda is derogatory, whether you mean it like that or not. It's like calling Hamilton "Lulu".

I can see AM being one of the top contenders with Newey and the Mercedes PU. Imagine Fred and Lulu battling it out for the WDC once again before retiring. Sign me up.

I think AM are using Honda engines next year.

[rbirules]

Why is it obnoxious? Fred is just an anglicized adaptation of Fernando, it’s not meant in a derogatory fashion.

His name is not "Fred" though, so it kinda is derogatory, whether you mean it like that or not. It's like calling Hamilton "Lulu".

I can see AM being one of the top contenders with Newey and the Mercedes PU. Imagine Fred and Lulu battling it out for the WDC once again before retiring. Sign me up.

I think AM are using Honda engines next year.

You are correct.

[mzso]

Fred is just an anglicized adaptation of Fernando, it’s not meant in a derogatory fashion.

Well, it very much looks like it. Also it's wrong. Fred is the English diminutive of Alfred and Frederick. (Alfredo, Federico would be the Spanish variants.)

Fernando is the Spanish variant of Ferdinand. You might as well call him Joe...

[mzso]

Alonso vs Sainz for the title with the occasional sniff from one of the Mclaren duo.

I understand not counting Stroll, but Albon will be just sleeping or something? So far he outperformed Sainz by a significant margin.

[dren]

Alonso vs Sainz for the title with the occasional sniff from one of the Mclaren duo.

I understand not counting Stroll, but Albon will be just sleeping or something? So far he outperformed Sainz by a significant margin.

I expect Sainz to get the jump over Albon with the new regs.