F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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bazanaius
bazanaius
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Re: F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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@ESP: Sorry, I missed that bit! Re. tunnel and CFD time, it is measured in 'FOTA' units - wind tunnel hours or Teraflops. Teams are allowed 80 a week.

rjsa
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Re: F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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ISLAMATRON wrote:A billboard facing the highway holds the same marketing "value" regardless of what the person paid to advertise their product on it, the same number of eyes fall upon it. Same for F1, the winning car holds the same number of eyeballs regardless of how much it cost to be made/developed, anyone argueing any different is a liar, most probably a professional one, in the field of marketing.
Tell this to the CART/Indy guys. Indy tackled cost, split from CART. Both ended with no value.

It is the market to fix the cost and value, not the FIA. It's wrong and it's near impossible to enforce a budget cap.

FIA can't assure that the cars they turn inside out every week are withing the rules, how exactly they would be able to tell thru which drains money is flowing?

Corporations fail to do that. Governments fail to do that.

jshaw
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Re: F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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The choice is either destroy what F1 is in order to make is sustainable, or let things run their natrual course, making things unsustainable.

I think F1 is already going down the first route. :roll:

myurr
myurr
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WhiteBlue wrote:F1 Darwinists like Pup think that the big teams with huge financial muscle and endless resources should be allowed to do as it pleases them. Having a grid of five or six teams would not worry these people if the big teams can run more cars.

For the sport it makes more sense to regulate how much money can be used, to open the competition to new teams and protect them against the leading teams to have the rules all their way. For the traditional big teams like McLaren and Ferrari change is bad because it allows new teams with clever engineers to innovate and catch up.

The big teams are running multiple design teams and study everything to death in order to make incremental changes to competitive factors. Only they can afford those kind of programs. So a certain amount of change to move F1 towards better sustainability makes sense. If it has to be done against Ferrari and FOTA so be it. I'm interested to see how Todt will manage that conflict.
Sorry, but I think you're utterly wrong. The constant changes to the rules and the narrowness of what is allow are ultimately driving the costs. With the majority of the car defined by the constraints placed upon it by the rules then vast sums are spent endlessly optimising the small areas that are open to interpretation. With more flexibility there is more chance for a genius in a small team to come up with something radical that boosts the performance of their cars.

To artificially limit a teams budget and resources effectively penalises success (greater success, greater sponsorship - simplistic, but true enough) and further restricts innovation. Why not just be done with it an place additional ballast in successful cars - the budget cap is in the same spirit.

rjsa
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Re: F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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WhiteBlue wrote:F1 Darwinists like Pup think that the big teams with huge financial muscle and endless resources should be allowed to do as it pleases them. Having a grid of five or six teams would not worry these people if the big teams can run more cars.

The fact that was was not taken into account here is that "huge financial muscle and endless resources" do not warrant success. You can ask Honda, Toyota, BMW and Renault.

OK, Renault manged WDC and WCC, but Williams nailed them this year.

And what we see now is alread natural selection in place, with huge dinossaurs failing to survive.

Jersey Tom
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Re: F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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Budget caps don't limit innovation. If anything, they encourage it. Can't just throw money at the problem then.. have to creatively make the most of what you have.

I'm all for a budget cap and an opened rule book.
Grip is a four letter word. All opinions are my own and not those of current or previous employers.

ESPImperium
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Re: F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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bazanaius wrote:@ESP: Sorry, I missed that bit! Re. tunnel and CFD time, it is measured in 'FOTA' units - wind tunnel hours or Teraflops. Teams are allowed 80 a week.
Thanks for the help in the department. Im gonna try and get together a more precise number base for what ive said, with a few expansions as well. Basically my thing is to limit the teams in some areas, but take the caps off elsewhere to try and appise the manufacturers and get Formula One more "road relevant" again.

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Ciro Pabón
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Re: F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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Please, stay focused. This has degenerated from a dire prediction about the future of F1, a discussion that presumibly should involve figures about F1 flow of money, who owns F1 and how those owners are doing lately, to arguments about what everybody thinks about cost cutting and the usual tirades about FIA ex-president.

Threads like this one are at a dime the dozen: pure original research.

I think F1 is successful because it spends money. It spends the money it attracts. It attracts money because it's successful.

White Blue, please, stop attacking Pup himself. On top of the banality of many contributions, now the forum have to deal with constant personal attacks, no matter what I repeat one and a thousand times. I think we have had enough demonstrations that posted warnings are ineffective.
Ciro

autogyro
autogyro
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I hope I am not guilty this time Ciro.
The question to ask over and over, until an answer in detail is found is this.

What is the complete definition of F1.

Without an answer there will be no certain future.

myurr
myurr
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Re: F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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Jersey Tom wrote:Budget caps don't limit innovation. If anything, they encourage it. Can't just throw money at the problem then.. have to creatively make the most of what you have.

I'm all for a budget cap and an opened rule book.
Again I'm going to disagree. With a limited budget you don't always have the luxury of innovating - if you go down the wrong path you are screwed, whereas a team with enough resources can afford to experiment and try out different things.

Unfortunately F1 is way beyond the age of being able to have a bright idea, build it, stick it on the car, and then see what happens. To win a championship you need to be consistent, you have long life parts on the cars, limited testing, and worse of all severe restrictions on the cars design. None of that is conducive to innovation - too much is at stake so incremental improvement is a far more effective a strategy than step change through innovative new ideas.

As an aside it's more important than ever that the rules are clear and fairly judged, rather than be based upon the whim of the FIA. With budget limitations in place the interpretation of the rules is going to be more important than ever before - with FIA judgments having season long implications for teams performance. I don't have much hope.

Pup
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Re: F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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Ciro Pabón wrote:White Blue, please, stop attacking Pup himself. On top of the banality of many contributions, now the forum have to deal with constant personal attacks, no matter what I repeat one and a thousand times. I think we have had enough demonstrations that posted warnings are ineffective.
I don't mind WB's quips, Ciro. You well know that I've been known to encourage them at times. :twisted: I'll count on you to let us know when our exchanges start to spoil the atmosphere of the place. :wink:

Nice place, btw.

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WhiteBlue
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Re: F1 will burst like subprime bubble

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myurr wrote:As an aside it's more important than ever that the rules are clear and fairly judged, rather than be based upon the whim of the FIA. With budget limitations in place the interpretation of the rules is going to be more important than ever before - with FIA judgments having season long implications for teams performance. I don't have much hope.
The rule making is responsible in the first place for having clear and fair rules. Then it is the responsibility of the FIA to implement it fairly.

Lets have a look at the latest hash we had this season. It started with the FIA saying the downforce should be limited to 1.25 tons. Everybody agrees about the reduction of downforce but the teams said they don't want a fixed number and set up the OWG to work out a rule based on aerodynamic research. After two years of delay the reduced downforce configuration was applied. Only a clever guy at Super Aguri fond a loop hole in the OWG rule to bring in double deck diffusors. SA go bust and their engineers or their ideas end up at Brawn, Toyota and Williams. Now the ball is back at the FIA and it takes a decision to make the DDD legal for all. The decision is clear and the same for all.

So who --- up in this case? Obviously the teams because their rule proposal was ambigous and not clear. Who gets the blame? The FIA because they agree to the rule that was written by the teams. Had they implemented their own version against the teams the rule had been clear. We can learn from this example that one should not allways put the blame to the federation. If they dictate the rule they get fire. If the adopt what FOTA wants they get fire as well. In any case they get blamed.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

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Ray
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All I have to say about enforcing regulations like budget caps is this. The harder you squeeze the more slips through your fingers. It cannot be controlled unless they go to one make of chassis and one make of engine and allow zero changes to either. It's happened in many series worldwide before and it's the farthest thing from competition you can get. They won't regulate the cars, they'll regulate the winners. And the winners are going to be the ones with the most influence on the rulemakers.

alexbarwell
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If the F1 crisis can be compared to the banking crises (definitely plural there)then by rights F1 can't be seen to die, with the governing body propping it up by whatever means and drastic actions to scale things back - just like the good old days that saw williams, tyrrell etc get going. The budget cap would actually have been the most fantastic technical challenge, but stands to be such a shock to a very coporate-bloated series. Other series, like BTCC are losing manufacturers which opens the door for more spirited privateers to have a go and bring more personality back into the game.
I am an engineer, not a conceptualist :)

Pup
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ISLAMATRON wrote:Cost is real, "value" is subjective... the BS marketing firm is selling a load of crap... The "value" of Brawn's "marketing" is exactly what they were paid for it(Virgin paid about 400K per race). If the value was any more than that the BS marketing firm(all of them are BS actually) sure did miss out on a huge commission. Instead of making up imaginary numbers they should have been lining up sponsors.

The Budget cap would have in no way "taken value out" of F1... that is just more marketing BS... 18 or less car grids is what would have taken value out of F1.

A billboard facing the highway holds the same marketing "value" regardless of what the person paid to advertise their product on it, the same number of eyes fall upon it. Same for F1, the winning car holds the same number of eyeballs regardless of how much it cost to be made/developed, anyone argueing any different is a liar, most probably a professional one, in the field of marketing.
It's a common mistake to equate value and cost; but they aren't the same, and are not necessarily even related. If a shirt costs $50, that doesn't mean it has a $50 value to me. If it does and I have the money, I might buy it; but if it doesn't I won't. The guy next to me however might value the shirt at $70, so for him its quite a bargain. Cost can certainly affect perceived value, of course. I know a little about wine, for example; but not enough to properly value the wines offered on a restaurant's wine list, especially if I don't recognize any of those offered. So I default to the optimistic belief that the price of the wines accurately reflects their quality. That, or I'll sheepishly admit my ignorance to the waiter, in the slightly-less-irrational belief that he will point me to the best value for my money rather than to the wine the restaurant bought too much of or gets the best margin from.

An object's value is also affected by things with which it is associated. A shirt sold at Wal Mart will have less perceived value than the exact same shirt sold at Ralph Lauren. Likewise, a brand of wine will have less perceived value when advertised on a billboard in a poor neighborhood than when advertised on one in a fancy shopping district. It's irrational, but we're all victims - marketers might trade in BS, but their industry is far from being BS itself.

And it's frightfully easy to destroy value. Levi's jeans is the great example of that. They used to be considered the epitome of what a pair of jeans was supposed to be, and had everything going for them - so much so that the only real competitors they had were in the lower end of the market. Then some bright MBA piped up and said that they would all be sailing magayachts if they cut costs and allowed Wal Mart to carry their products. They did, and long story short, practically overnight their brand's value was utterly destroyed and it almost took the company with it. Today, they are considered a low end commodity product, while countless others have sprung up to fill the void at the top.

Almost every market has a structure like this. If a company wants to enter a market, it has to decide how to position itself based on where it thinks the best profits are to be found - is it low-margin, high volume; or high margin, low volume? Do you want to be Nokia, with 26% of the smartphone market; or Apple, with just 8%? (answer: Apple)

F1 is obviously one of those elite brands. It's value in that respect depends on both concrete and ethereal factors. Sure, there's the direct value of the sheer number of eyes watching, but there is also the value that each set of eyes assigns to what they see. Because F1 is considered the pinnacle of motorsport, those who participate in it - be they a sponsor, competitor, or venue - take on the same cachet. And the more elite we perceive the sport itself, the more elite we perceive those who participate. Obviously, there is a perfect synergy then between the sport and sponsors like TAG, competitors like Ferrari, and venues like Monaco or Abu Dhabi - products that trade almost entirely on their exclusivity. Then there are those who want to capitalize on the sport's ravenous competition that all that money fosters - brands like BMW or Bridgestone for example, who want their products to be perceived as technically superior. The flip side is that there are brands which would gain little from associating themselves with the sport.

Here's an interesting set of stats to ponder. Surveys of NASCAR show that 72% of the fans would 'almost always' or 'frequently' purchase brands that are associated with the sport. The same survey of F1 fans? 28% In fact, more F1 fans would 'almost never' choose the F1 sponsor (32%) than would choose it! The reason for this isn't that NASCAR fans are somehow more loyal than F1 fans, but rather that F1 sponsors are advertising to a smaller, wealthier percentage of their audience. The rest of us are just voyeurs. Someday, right?

So this is why I'm bewildered at the FIA's stance on lowering the cost of the sport. When you lower the cost and reduce the technology, you eliminate the two primary factors in setting the sport's perceived value. The same number of people might watch and attend - perhaps even more - but they won't perceive the sport and those who participate in the same way. You've screwed the sport's fundamental economy. If F1 isn't the most expensive, technologically advanced and therefore competitive form of racing, then what is it? Just another series like any other. Take it down market, and be ready to suffer a similar fate as Levi's. It would survive, of course; and the sport that emerged might be the same or even more enjoyable to many of us. But it's position as the best of the best will be threatened.

Think about it. If right now, Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Renault left F1 and instead focused entirely on LeMans prototypes, spending outrageous amounts, hiring the best drivers, etc., leaving F1 with budget caps and spec Cosworth engines, would you still consider F1 to be the pinnacle of motor racing? Hardly.