2026 Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix - Barcelona, June 12 - 14

[Mr5in1]

Did you watch some fantasy version of the race? He only got in front because of the VSC.

HAM was a in a good shout to win the race regardless of the VSC. He had c. 15 second gap on L41 (pre-VSC) and was going to put hards at around L46, and would have come out between 5-8s behind ANT-RUS. Definitely a workable gap over 20 laps, and 10 laps fresher tyres, considering the gap HAM pulled on ANT-RUS post-VSC.

How does that work? He was 16 seconds ahead on lap 41. Russell, Antonelli and Norris were lapping about 0.5-0.8s faster than Hamilton. If we assume he pits on lap 46 that means he would be 12.7s ahead with a pitstop of about 24s. So he exits 12s behind them.

Then he needs to catch all three and overtake all three. His gap at the end was about 20 seconds, so he has to overcome 12s, then fight through 3 cars with 8 seconds to spare. I would have loved to see it but I think he wouldn't have won, 3 cars is just too hard to overtake, he would hurt his tires, lose pace, etc.

Listening to the race, they said the mercedes strategists said outwith VSC a Lewis win was still predicted, taking the lead 2 laps before the end

[Sidiamal]

Did you watch some fantasy version of the race? He only got in front because of the VSC.

HAM was a in a good shout to win the race regardless of the VSC. He had c. 15 second gap on L41 (pre-VSC) and was going to put hards at around L46, and would have come out between 5-8s behind ANT-RUS. Definitely a workable gap over 20 laps, and 10 laps fresher tyres, considering the gap HAM pulled on ANT-RUS post-VSC.

How does that work? He was 16 seconds ahead on lap 41. Russell, Antonelli and Norris were lapping about 0.5-0.8s faster than Hamilton. If we assume he pits on lap 46 that means he would be 12.7s ahead with a pitstop of about 24s. So he exits 12s behind them.

Then he needs to catch all three and overtake all three. His gap at the end was about 20 seconds, so he has to overcome 12s, then fight through 3 cars with 8 seconds to spare. I would have loved to see it but I think he wouldn't have won, 3 cars is just too hard to overtake, he would hurt his tires, lose pace, etc.

He was the better part of a second faster with a 4 lap offset obliged by the fact the VSC was too juicy to give up. Without it he'd have come out on Lap 47 with a 10 lap offset, just over doubling his pace advantage. He'd have come out 12 seconds behind, and been just under 2 seconds a lap faster. In short, not a contest.

[Badger]

HAM was a in a good shout to win the race regardless of the VSC. He had c. 15 second gap on L41 (pre-VSC) and was going to put hards at around L46, and would have come out between 5-8s behind ANT-RUS. Definitely a workable gap over 20 laps, and 10 laps fresher tyres, considering the gap HAM pulled on ANT-RUS post-VSC.

How does that work? He was 16 seconds ahead on lap 41. Russell, Antonelli and Norris were lapping about 0.5-0.8s faster than Hamilton. If we assume he pits on lap 46 that means he would be 12.7s ahead with a pitstop of about 24s. So he exits 12s behind them.

Then he needs to catch all three and overtake all three. His gap at the end was about 20 seconds, so he has to overcome 12s, then fight through 3 cars with 8 seconds to spare. I would have loved to see it but I think he wouldn't have won, 3 cars is just too hard to overtake, he would hurt his tires, lose pace, etc.

He was the better part of a second faster with a 4 lap offset obliged by the fact the VSC was too juicy to give up. Without it he'd have come out on Lap 47 with a 10 lap offset, just over doubling his pace advantage. He'd have come out 12 seconds behind, and been just under 2 seconds a lap faster. In short, not a contest.

He wouldn’t have had a problem catching, but Kimi was sat in the overtake of George with more pace. He would have been really hard to overtake. A couple of laps spent in the dirty air and suddenly your pace advantage is rapidly diminishing. Spain was all about minimising sliding and you slide a lot in dirty air.

[Raleigh]

With 1.5 or 2 seconds a lap pace advantage can just drive around other cars in the corners in Barcelona. Turn 4 especially, seeing some crazy passes based on tyre difference.

Mercedes was struggling on pace for both hard tyre stints, Lando fell off the back of them despite the battle for position.

Lewis would have blitzed through all 3 like they were standing still on a tyre advantage even bigger than the VSC stop.

[FittingMechanics]

Everyone can have their own opinion, my opinion is that Lewis couldn't overtake 3 fast cars with just 8 seconds of "advantage".

Cars he caught would sacrifice long term pace to keep him behind (none were under threat from P5), so Norris may drive over the limit for a few laps to keep Hamilton behind which would slow Hamilton down, but then when he is overtaken Lando loses much more time. This doesn't show up in the clean drive to the end we saw. Then next car on the road (Antonelli or Russell) would again fight with Lewis slowing him down. And then after all that time, he reaches the guy in P1 who drove most of it in clean air preparing to defend against Hamilton.

All of it adds up, this is not time trial of 20 laps.

Hamilton probably wouldn't have won without the VSC. If he did, it would be one of legendary fights for a victory.

[woocasz]

Bortoleto hit 360 km/h at the Barcelona, a new record for this generation of cars!

can we expect 370kmh+ at Baku/Monza/Mexico?

[PlatinumZealot]

And all 20 of those seconds can be accounted for by the VSC pit stop and driving in completely clean air on fresh rubber whilst the others were battling behind. Put Hamilton 15 seconds at the back of that pack and it's a different scenario, having to pass 3 quick Merc engined cars. The best of the tyres would have been spent catching up, then there's the slog of dirty air and sliding x3. I don't see him winning in that scenario, he gets stuck behind Antonelli.

That is flat out wrong. HAM had nearly 15 second gap to RUS-ANT pre-VSC which is how he had the VSC gap to pit. Assuming HAM loses 5-8 seconds to RUS-ANT until his eventual third pit stop, he would have come out 8-10 seconds behind them, with 20 laps to go and 12-13 lap fresher tyres.

A pit stop loses around 23s of track time in Spain. He was 15 seconds ahead when the VSC came out, 6-7 more laps would have put him around 15 seconds behind Russell assuming a 1s per lap loss on older tyres. So I am right in saying 15s, your estimate of 5-8s is what is flat out wrong.

Catching 15s and passing 3 Mercs would have been hard. To say he definitely would have won regardless is too cavalier and underestimates the difficulty of passing 3 quick cars in dirty air.

The evidence was worn tyres were a 2 second loss versus new. The longer they extended the stint the worse it would be for ANT and Russell. The best move for Merc was undercutting Lewis on Lap 11 with ANT.

[PlatinumZealot]

All of you Ferrari and Hamilton haters better run and hide. From now on, Hamilton is the WDC challenger. It took time, but Hamilton steered the Ferrari technical staff in the right direction. Hamilton knew all along how to improve the Ferrari. The team listened to him. Now we see the results. By the way, thirty years ago in 1996 a racing driver named Michael Schumacher won his first race for Ferrari in Spain. Hamilton wins his first race for Ferrari in Spain as well.

Yes. Shades of Schumacher. I guess this is what the Ferrari rebuilding felt like!

[FittingMechanics]

Bortoleto hit 360 km/h at the Barcelona, a new record for this generation of cars!

can we expect 370kmh+ at Baku/Monza/Mexico?

I was told (here) the cars can't accelerate after the electrical engine cuts off. Even though we had reports of cars exceeding these speeds in testing.

[De Wet]

All of you Ferrari and Hamilton haters better run and hide. From now on, Hamilton is the WDC challenger. It took time, but Hamilton steered the Ferrari technical staff in the right direction. Hamilton knew all along how to improve the Ferrari. The team listened to him. Now we see the results. By the way, thirty years ago in 1996 a racing driver named Michael Schumacher won his first race for Ferrari in Spain. Hamilton wins his first race for Ferrari in Spain as well.

[organic]

HAM was a in a good shout to win the race regardless of the VSC. He had c. 15 second gap on L41 (pre-VSC) and was going to put hards at around L46, and would have come out between 5-8s behind ANT-RUS. Definitely a workable gap over 20 laps, and 10 laps fresher tyres, considering the gap HAM pulled on ANT-RUS post-VSC.

How does that work? He was 16 seconds ahead on lap 41. Russell, Antonelli and Norris were lapping about 0.5-0.8s faster than Hamilton. If we assume he pits on lap 46 that means he would be 12.7s ahead with a pitstop of about 24s. So he exits 12s behind them.

Then he needs to catch all three and overtake all three. His gap at the end was about 20 seconds, so he has to overcome 12s, then fight through 3 cars with 8 seconds to spare. I would have loved to see it but I think he wouldn't have won, 3 cars is just too hard to overtake, he would hurt his tires, lose pace, etc.

Listening to the race, they said the mercedes strategists said outwith VSC a Lewis win was still predicted, taking the lead 2 laps before the end

Considering how fine of a line that is, I would view this as them trying to save face

[Just_a_fan]

How does that work? He was 16 seconds ahead on lap 41. Russell, Antonelli and Norris were lapping about 0.5-0.8s faster than Hamilton. If we assume he pits on lap 46 that means he would be 12.7s ahead with a pitstop of about 24s. So he exits 12s behind them.

Then he needs to catch all three and overtake all three. His gap at the end was about 20 seconds, so he has to overcome 12s, then fight through 3 cars with 8 seconds to spare. I would have loved to see it but I think he wouldn't have won, 3 cars is just too hard to overtake, he would hurt his tires, lose pace, etc.

Listening to the race, they said the mercedes strategists said outwith VSC a Lewis win was still predicted, taking the lead 2 laps before the end

Considering how fine of a line that is, I would view this as them trying to save face

The simulation showed that he would catch them, not that he would necessarily take the lead. But with the pace advantage that we saw in real life, it's entirely possible that he would have passed them.

[dans79]

Listening to the race, they said the mercedes strategists said outwith VSC a Lewis win was still predicted, taking the lead 2 laps before the end

Considering how fine of a line that is, I would view this as them trying to save face

The simulation shoed that he would catch them, not that he would necessarily take the lead. But with the pace advantage that we saw in real life, it's entirely possible that he would have passed them.

Add in, if he caught them and they were both still too busy fighting each other, he might have pulled off another Silverstone 2022 style pass.

[renault rs26]

Great race, great Winner!

The worst race of the season.

You must have missed Miami or China then

Actually I missed Miami and watched it on replay, but it was good race except in the middle 1/3, Catalunya is too hard to follow close, felt like Monca for most of the race.

[Juzh]

Bortoleto hit 360 km/h at the Barcelona, a new record for this generation of cars!

can we expect 370kmh+ at Baku/Monza/Mexico?

Bottas in cadilac as well. 360 kmh is by far the fastest speed ever on this track.

Bortoleto hit 360 km/h at the Barcelona, a new record for this generation of cars!

can we expect 370kmh+ at Baku/Monza/Mexico?

I was told (here) the cars can't accelerate after the electrical engine cuts off. Even though we had reports of cars exceeding these speeds in testing.

In overtake mode battery cuts completely at 355 km/h, but if you arrive with a lot of momentum and in close slipstream then apparently you can gain an extra 5 km/h with ICE power alone.
Unless this 355 km/h mgu-k limit is lifted then I don't think much higher than 360 kmh is possible.