How will the rest of the season pan out?

[rfs]

Points after 14 of 19 races run:

Mark Webber - 187
Lewis Hamilton - 182
Fernando Alonso - 166
Jenson Button - 165
Sebastian Vettel - 163

Tracks left: Singapore, Suzuka, Korea, Interlagos, Yas Marina

Webber is looking very cozy after getting back the championship lead, and the Red Bull should be utterly dominant at the next 3 tracks at least. However, if Vettel (who is naturally faster than Webber) can pull himself together for a final charge he could beat Webber in a couple of races and take vital points from him. I don't think he will win the WDC this year after all that has happened but I think he will be a spoiler.

Hamilton IMO has had the best combination of speed and consistency out of the top 5, but a DNF this weekend when Red Bull was off the pace would have killed his title chances if his car doesn't get up to the speed of the Bulls and Ferraris in the next few races. I think his car might challenge for a win at Yas Marina with its long straights, but by then it might be too late.

If Alonso stops making mistakes and his car can stay close to the Red Bulls and ahead of the Mclarens, he could have a chance of leapfrogging Hamilton at least. But Ferrari isn't the ultra-efficient winning machine it was with Schumacher and the dream team, so I wouldn't bet on it. I think at least one more thing will go wrong for Alonso.

As for Button, I don't really see how he can defend his title. The most he could hope for is to leapfrog Lewis if Hamilton has a couple more no-scores like today, but I don't see Lewis' luck taking such a downswing. And as I said earlier with Lewis the car may or may not be up to it.

So, at the end of the season I think Webber will win, however it's so competitive and there are so many variables that will come into play: the cars' form, the drivers' form, the weather, the tyres, the other drivers, the stewards, inter-team politics, and that magic ingredient, luck.

What do you think?

[internetf1fan]

This years WDC did not belong to Hamilton anyway. Red Bulls have just been too fast. Not sure what he's there fighting for the championship. After todays result I am pretty sure McLaren's aren't getting any of the championships especially since the next few races are tailor made for RBR.

I am happy as long as Ferrari don't win anything, so Webber/Vettel all the way!

[quickneon]

I was trying to find out engine use so far this season, I believe that Alonso is using his last engine which will have to make it five races (along with his other ones he hasn't blown up) . I think that this puts him out of contention. For me it is a four horse (non ferrari horse) with Webber coming out on top Vettel second Hamilton third and Button fourth.

[Miguel]

I was trying to find out engine use so far this season, I believe that Alonso is using his last engine which will have to make it five races (along with his other ones he hasn't blown up).

Alonso has a couple of other engines available, as far as I know. Teams can allocate engine usage as they see fit, and it isn't unlikely that some of the older engines can be used for friday practice. Didn't Martin Brundle mention today that Red Bull made it home last year with fewer engines available?

Back to the championship, my vote is not-Button. He has to overcome a very fast Hamilton (17 points ahead of him) and a quick Red Bull. I'd say the Red Bull will most likely be faster than McLaren in at least three of the remaining five tracks: Singapore (very much so), Suzuka and Interlagos.

Although slightly behind on points, Vettle has, IMHO, a better chance than Jenson. Nevertheless, he's looked somewhat erratic this year. My bet would be him finishing third.

Alonso will also have a hard time getting the title. It's still doable: he's got a deficit of ~8 old point. Nevertheless, there is the engine handicap and the car handicap (the ferrari has been fastest in Germany and Italy only). Plus he made some uncharacteristic mistakes: jumpstart in China, bad start in Melbourne, practice crash in Monaco and the 4 points thrown in Spa. His starts have been pretty lacklustre this year, as well. On the other hand, his teammate shouldn't be too much of an issue, and his fire seems to be burning again.

Hamilton does not have apparently the best car. But it is the second best, and he's got the talent. Mistakes like the setup in Monza (like Alonso's in Spa) should not be repeated. If the Red Bulls aren't too far ahead at Singapore and Suzuka, he'd be my pick.

Last but not least, Webber has what will seemingly be the fastest car in 3/5 races and a points advantage. If he gets the spring form we saw, he'll get the title. Playing against him is not being the RBR driver Didi wants to see winning the title.

My pulled out of my back chances (you *will* disagree)
Webber - 40%
Hamilton - 30%
Alonso - 14%
Vettel - 11%
Button - 5%

PS: Chances of ferrari not winning the constructor's championship: 99.95%

[wittgenfrog]

I'm hoping Mr Webber will win it. He's got a very fast car, though just how fast it now is remains to be seen.
Clearly Vettel also has a very fast car, but I can't see the top drivers throwing away too many points (a la Hamilton) in the near future, so I don't rate his chances at all.

JB stands a good chance if neither RB nor Ferrari make any sucessful upgrades and McLaren gain a bit on them (not likely). The joker in the pack (for me) is Hamilton who can (and mainly does, these days) wring the last bit of performance out of an underperforming car.

[godlameroso]

I see the next race as very much of a toss up, many different people can win. The only place where aerodynamics is important is the final two turns. The rest of the track is slow speed corners with the average apex speed being around 70mph

[Phail]

Singapore and Suzuka are relatively fast & flowing circuits, should favour the Red Bulls more than the Mclarens. I expect Suzuka to produce a dogfight between 2 Red Bulls.

[raymondu999]

Suzuka was always going to be Bull territory. But Singapore? Fast and flowing? Huh? :s

[WhiteBlue]

My pulled out of my back chances (you *will* disagree)
Webber - 40%
Hamilton - 30%
Alonso - 14%
Vettel - 11%
Button - 5%

The betting money says:

Webber 37%
Hamilton 36%
Vettel 20%
Alonso 11%
Button 3%

[freedom_honda]

The end of this season is gonna be epic. I honestly don't have a clue how it will pan out. IF (and this is a big if given McLaren recent development progress) McLaren can get their car to be as quick as the Ferrari and Red Bull, I think either Hamilton or Jenson is going to win it. But if Ferrari and Red Bull are still ahead like they were in Hungary, I reckon Webber will win it.

[Sean H]

Alonso may have the biggest advantage, a teammate not in the WDC contention. Massa may be the difference maker if Fred is to have a chance.

I think it will come down to the top driver from each team; Webber, LH and Fred. Among those three, its who makes the least amount of mistakes the last 5 races. Retirements, missed Q3 and the like will not win the trophy.

Personally, I would like to see all 3 within 5 points of each other going into the last race. I really think that is possible too. In fact, there could be 5 drivers with a chance of winning the title at the last race. Talk about first turn pressure in Abu Dhabi.

[raymondu999]

How about a magical 5-way tie after we leave Brazil?

[Miguel]

How about a magical 5-way tie after we leave Brazil?

If (large as a galaxy if) there is a 5-way tie going into Abu Dhabi, Bernie is going to die out of orgasms and Slavica will become the richest woman in the world.

[raymondu999]

It would be great for us too And you never know. All 5 get punted off and Massa is champion? :p

[SiLo]

Maybe Hamilton will win the WDC even later than he did in 2008? Passing Vettel across the line to take 2nd behind Webber, beating him by one or two points? That would be epic