2011 WDC and WCC odds

[WhiteBlue]

And here is the update after the Jerez test. The market has now reached 151 k€.



Heidfeld is going to be announced as the Kubica stand in on Monday while Kubica's odds have gone up to 500 to win this years WDC. Reality finally has sunk in that he will not play a part in this years proceeding. Heidfeld is basically on a similar level as Massa but far away from the 18 Kubica boasted on his best day when he set fastest time in the Valencia test.

Rubens improved his odds today by going fastest and Michael Schumacher cemented his better odds during testing by running massive amounts of laps in both Valencia and Jerez with the W02 while Rosberg always seems to have the glitches.

The top of the odds keeps tipping one or the other side between Alonso and Vettel depending of who does anything spectacular in the car. The Ferrari is by far the car with the highest milage while many observers see the RB7 as the car with the highest downforce once again.

McLaren did not have a smooth start to the 2011 testing and Hamilton cannot close in on the two top drivers while the car fails to impress the observers with milage and performance.

[WhiteBlue]

This is the market and a view of the odds after the first Barcelona test and the cancellation of the Bahrain GP



The market has grown to almost 200k€. Williams Hill has made adjustments to their WCC odds. They still see Red Bull as the favorite. Strangely Ferrari are classed with McLaren at 3.5 although testing suggests that Ferrari should probably be closer to Red Bull. It appears that the market is still too small for the big betting houses to generate odds that reflect the testing scenario. Beyond Mercedes all teams see their odds deteriorate.

No big changes at the drivers. Heidfeld looses ground and Barrichello improves significantly. Kubica's odds are slowly worsening as a miracle recovery becomes less probable.



Series format for the WDC odds

[Callum]

Hey WhiteBlue, just like to say thanks for all the info that you're puting up. Very interesting

[WhiteBlue]

Hey WhiteBlue, just like to say thanks for all the info that you're puting up. Very interesting

You are welcome. Some time ago I realized that the betting money is a lot more realistic than I was on the chance of my favorite drivers. So I started to compile the odds as a reality check for myself. It has worked great in the 2010 season. Particularly commenting on the top three or four contenders is a tricky business but great fun for me. Keep the comments going and I'll be even more motivated to do a good job at documenting the betting through the season.

[raymondu999]

you should also compare how their points against their betting odds - it'll be interesting to see. For example, someone might be at a very low point in the standings, but people still expect a lot from him, and so still bet for him.

[JohnsonsEvilTwin]

Webber looks fantastic value!

[WhiteBlue]

I'll be showing the odds and the tables of the points as soon as the season commences. As I learned last year, there is no practical way to generate points and odds standing in a similar format. I will present both graphically but in different formats. It takes a bit of an imagination to pull the two graphs together but it can be done.

[raymondu999]

WB, maybe you could multiply the odds and compare? Eg, though Vettel was the lowest for the 5 contenders around Canada last year, I know you would've put your money still on him I know I did

[WhiteBlue]

One problem with this is the different nature of odds and points. The higher your points the better you are and the lower your odds the better you are. It is a contradiction!

You can convert odds in percentages of probability but then people will not recognize them from the odds tables they have seen and vice versa. The simple truth is that however you scale both indicators you are going to distort the real message they convey. This is why I will not do it.

[Roland Ehnström]

Webber and Massa look like good bets at this point. Possibly Button as well.

[WhiteBlue]

I'm giving an extra update today after Williams has sucessfully floated on the stock market. The news is that not much has changed.



Without testing news the market growth is much reduced compared to the previous weeks. In the last ten days only 19k€ were added to the matched market. McLaren and Mercedes have longer odds now after negative comments by drivers and teams were much in the head lines.



Hamilton, Webber, Button and Schumacher are weaker in the driver odds. Rosberg is stable against a weakness of Mercedes.

[horse]

I think we're seeing a bit of "market drift" there as well. The messed up testing schedule may be resulting in the general lengthening of odds while nothing is going on in order to drum up trade.

[raymondu999]

Didn't the Williams stock plunge by a Euro already?

[WhiteBlue]

Didn't the Williams stock plunge by a Euro already?

Williams GP Holding can be found at the following listing by Google ISIN: DE000A1H6VM4

Actual and historic data are available from many sites like: http://www.finanzen.net/aktien/Williams ... Prix-Aktie

The shares opened at the bottom of the bookbuilding range of €25 and fell to 24 during the first trading day. As my earlier prediction the trend is down from the early target of €29 but the trend is not as fast as I would have anticipated. I will watch this issue over the time. I do not expect much movement in the coming week but after the opening race in Australia there could be more pressure on the stock price if Williams disappoint compared to the IPO hype.

[WhiteBlue]

double post, please delete