Malaysian GP 2011 - Sepang

[volarchico]

Hey WB. Can I just quickly ask if you know, statistically, how many times your technique of inferring qually/race results from betting odds has worked out?

I'd be interested in this too! @WB, do you have a database of the odds prior to each race? Based on how you describe the way this system/website works, it is basing the odds entirely on "group think". There have been lots of recent studies about the power of collective human minds at finding the best "solution" based on betting or stock market type systems. I wonder how many times the odds actually get the podium (1st, 2nd, 3rd) right?

[piast9]

I never looked at it that way. Now thinking, hot exhaust gases blowing towards the ground - in front of the rear wheels- really might give an advantage !

I doubt it. If the car stands still for a while then yes, some water may evaporate but when it's moving the effect would be marginal even if they mounted blowtorches.

[nipo]

I for one think that most people here (and not only here) seriously underestimate Renault. Sepang will play into R31's strengths much more than Albert Park did. In Melbourne they were imo 3rd best car in Qualifying as well as in the race. (unless one thinks that Petrov is better driver than Alonso).
Having followed live timing closely I can say that R31 is also kinder on its tires than both Red Bull and McLaren (not to mention Ferrari) - Petrov was able to keep great pace while others' started to drop off. Interestingly, this also seems to have escaped almost unnoticed.
Where do you expect them to be come Sunday

I think the opposite, I think they'll be firmly on the front edge of the midfield (well, which is one thing you agree - they'll probably be the 3rd/4th best car in Quali). I don't see them in any better shape than that in Malaysia. Their radical design did not put them in front of the field, so unless they improve on the design and make it more efficient at the next race, they'll probably not be fighting with RedBull or McLaren, not even Ferrari.

[raymondu999]

Interesting...What sort of advantage do you mean? His last wet race was horrendous!

His ability to judge when to switch to what tyre – every single time we've had a race where the tyre choice has been non-obvious, button has always been on the right tyre at the right time. Tbh, I think this is pretty much the one area where Hamilton could learn from him.

And the one race where it was, he fuffled the race (Korea)

BetFair has no manual setting of the bets. The odds are set by a computer that matches the amount of money set on the drivers. The bookmaker always gets a certain cut of the winning, whoever wins. That way the automatic algorythm creates the fairest representation of the betting money's expectations.

The odds have been often correct in the past, but sometimes unexpected results happened. Vettel's engine failure in Korea and Hülkenberg winning qualifying in Brazil were such cases. Most other races and quallies were won by by Vettel as expected.

I understand that the odds of the winning/pole driver would be shortest, but statistically, how many times have the order been 100% matched? Or very close? I mean from 2nd-24th. If that makes sense.

I never looked at it that way. Now thinking, hot exhaust gases blowing towards the ground - in front of the rear wheels- really might give an advantage !

That's if it were inter conditions, then they'd have traction with slicks. But what if it were wet though? Could they blow-dry the track to the point where it's too dry for the rears or too wet for the fronts? (if they use inters/wets)

[myurr]

I seriously doubt the Renaults exhausts will have any measurable effect on the water on the track. It's not going to evaporate or blow the water out of the way in any significant volumes.

[CyleB]

but as the track starts to dry it should help, being that almost all of the cars have the exhaust blowing on the difuser

[myurr]

but as the track starts to dry it should help, being that almost all of the cars have the exhaust blowing on the difuser

It takes approximately 2,595,880 Joules of energy to evaporate 1 litre of water. F1 rain tyres can displace 60 litres of water per second, which sometimes isn't enough in wet races and they aquaplane. So in order for the exhaust to evaporate that much water it must impart 155,752,800 Joules of energy per second into the water on the track. That's 156 Megawatts of power assuming 100% efficiency....

That exhaust is not going to have any measurable effect on the water reaching the rear tyres.

[CyleB]

i was saying that after it stopped raining the exhaust that is being blown under the cars will help the track dry quicker

[myurr]

i was saying that after it stopped raining the exhaust that is being blown under the cars will help the track dry quicker

Again, I don't think it will have any noticeable effect with the tyres having far greater influence. A quick google search suggests a figure of 500kW of energy being produced by the average F1 engine. Assuming very unrealistically that all of this energy made it's way into the exhaust and that from there all the energy went into evaporating the water on the track, the exhaust would still only displace 0.3% of the water that the tyres move. Even assuming that 75% of the water thrown up by the tyres lands straight back on the racing line, the tyres will still shift 80 times more water than the exhaust.

[Mandrake]

If you then also factor in the rapid movement of the car relative to the ground, the effect will be even smaller

[marekk]

i was saying that after it stopped raining the exhaust that is being blown under the cars will help the track dry quicker

Again, I don't think it will have any noticeable effect with the tyres having far greater influence. A quick google search suggests a figure of 500kW of energy being produced by the average F1 engine. Assuming very unrealistically that all of this energy made it's way into the exhaust and that from there all the energy went into evaporating the water on the track, the exhaust would still only displace 0.3% of the water that the tyres move. Even assuming that 75% of the water thrown up by the tyres lands straight back on the racing line, the tyres will still shift 80 times more water than the exhaust.

500kW is just what's being converted to mechanical power, as measured on the dyno. Total exhaust energy is more then this (engine's efficiency is less then 30%, more then 70% goes to exhaust and cooling).

Of course even 600kW it's not enough to help dry the track in any measurable way when in motion.

At the start of the race, assuming the car is up the front of the grid, waiting for cars behind, there's maybe enough time to clear some water in front of rear tyres. Personally i doubt it.

[volarchico]

^^ agreed. Even at a modest 100 km/hr, the time it takes an F1 car's rear wheels to reach the spot the front wheels were at on the pavement is only about 0.1 seconds!

[horse]

Latest Ian Fergusson Weather update:

SEPANG, latest outlook: Continues offering dry or largely dry Fri; shower threat increases Sat but more so into the race window on Sunday.

Dry quali / Wet race, maybe? That will be a bit of pain for setup, won't it?

[raymondu999]

It would, but it would be a great formula. You'd see in qually who really has got great aero (Sepang being the aero-demanding track that it is... similar to Barcelona in terms of track makeup) and you'd get a fun race And I'd get to see those rooster tails I love seeing so much

[horse]

Yeah, I totally agree. My only concern is that if the cars are set up for the dry then we are even more likely to see the red flag should the rain get heavy.