2011 WDC and WCC odds

[PlatinumZealot]

Keep up the good work WB.

[bhall]

Nothing.

Indeed.

An insanely wealthy individual with money to burn could wager $20,000,000 that Narain Karthikeyan will win something, anything, and that will skew the odds in his favor, but do absolutely nothing to increase the likelihood of it actually happening.

One would do just as well consulting a turtle for such insight into Formula 1.

[Caito]

But that doesn't happen because we are talking about money here. Poeple are trying to make a profit with this, and would never do such things. And that's why WB takes lots of pages into consideration not just one.

It's just people's expectations quantified. If they're nothing to you then just don't read it. What's the use of having all these, that is up to you. There are several conclusions which could be taken. WB is facilitating you the information in a very good and understandable way.

[WhiteBlue]

What do these odds mean?

The Betfair odds are a direct expression of how much money is bet on a driver or a constructor to win the championship. Quite often it is a very good indication of what we can expect. It is a better indicator usually than individual expectations and most of the time more accurate than the F1technical polls. Low odds are expressing the highest probability to win.

[bhall]

That's just it, though. Low odds don't express the highest probability to win. They merely express an opinion which is more widely held than others.

And you've certainly seen how most of the polls around here are authored. Repeatedly rolling dice would yield results of similar, if not better, precision.

It annoys me to see betting odds and race results shown in a way which implies they have a cause/effect relationship.

(I think I'm just argumentative today.)

[PlatinumZealot]

That's why people bet on them! You are rewarded if you take the narrow road and come out successful, just like life.

[Tamburello]

The constructor odds seem to predict a two horse race of McLaren vs Red Bull. Ferrari have Alonso who is superb in an inferior car but Massa is not pulling his full weight.

What are you talking about? Massa had beaten Alonso in all the races prior to the Turkish GP. He was unlucky to not get a podium in China due to sub optimal strategy from his team and was unlucky in Istanbul because of sub optimal pit stops, where he could have been 4th!

[raymondu999]

Meh. Where's Paul the Octopus when you need him?

[WhiteBlue]

That's just it, though. Low odds don't express the highest probability to win. They merely express an opinion which is more widely held than others.

And you've certainly seen how most of the polls around here are authored. Repeatedly rolling dice would yield results of similar, if not better, precision.

It annoys me to see betting odds and race results shown in a way which implies they have a cause/effect relationship.

(I think I'm just argumentative today.)

You neglect the fact that people want to win when they risk their money. They do take in a lot of information on the competitiveness of the cars and drivers before they make their bets. Betting is very similar to the stock market. Every information quickly translates to price/odds. Betters are a very involved group of people and the accuracy of the odds is a lot better than many individual predictions I have seen. The odds don't have a causal relationship to the results. It is more that they are driven by the collective experience of many thousands of experienced observers.

[bhall]

And I think you neglect the fact that bookmaking is not a charitable endeavor, and, as such, the primary role of betting odds is to ensure the bookmaker a profit regardless of the outcome. That leaves betting odds with no real-world predictive value whatsoever - which is what I was trying to say when I misspoke by mentioning cause/effect relationships. In fact, bookmakers rely on most people getting it all wrong.

That's why statements like the ones I've highlighted below strike me as nonsensical voodoo.

In the odds data table everything looks like the two championships will be contested between Red Bull and McLaren. The match odds are very clear.

The WDC looks like a four horse race realistically if you go by the odds.

Hamilton takes a big jump upwards in the WDC table and we can perhaps close the group of pretenders behind Massa. Let's have a look at the odds first before coming to conclusions.

(I guess I'm still feeling argumentative today. Maybe I'm manstruating.)

[raymondu999]

I just read an article earlier on that Hamilton said Vettel's domination is similar to Schumi's. WB, do you have historical data on odds during any of Schumi's 2001-2004 WDC years?

[andrew]

Meh. Where's Paul the Octopus when you need him?

Last seen deep fried on a plate with some chips! Very tasty!

[Mr Alcatraz]

Meh. Where's Paul the Octopus when you need him?

After he helped Spain beat Germany in the World Cup Semi's, and then again over The Netherlands in the Final, considering him too dangerous the Germans had him "Sanctioned". True story!

[raymondu999]

Well Germany beat Spain in F1 in 2010...

[WhiteBlue]

And I think you neglect the fact that bookmaking is not a charitable endeavor, and, as such, the primary role of betting odds is to ensure the bookmaker a profit regardless of the outcome. That leaves betting odds with no real-world predictive value whatsoever - which is what I was trying to say when I misspoke by mentioning cause/effect relationships. In fact, bookmakers rely on most people getting it all wrong.

That's why statements like the ones I've highlighted below strike me as nonsensical voodoo.

In the odds data table everything looks like the two championships will be contested between Red Bull and McLaren. The match odds are very clear.

The WDC looks like a four horse race realistically if you go by the odds.

Hamilton takes a big jump upwards in the WDC table and we can perhaps close the group of pretenders behind Massa. Let's have a look at the odds first before coming to conclusions.

(I guess I'm still feeling argumentative today. Maybe I'm manstruating.)

You are of course entitled to any opinion, but please take into account that BetFair odds were selected for this project because they are not made by a bookie to maximise the profit. The odds are the result of the the amount of money spent by the betters and are automatically generated by an algorithm. Betfair takes a small percentage from every winning bet to cover cost and profit. That way the odds are purely generated by market conditions where people vote with their pocket book.

I have only observed the 2010 and now the 2011 season, so I have no data how the Schumacher domination looked in the view of the punters.