How soon can Vettel win 2011 WDC?

[Tyler]

I really don't see another driver dominating the rest of the season just all of a sudden. Even if Hamilton or Alonso do start beating Vettel now I think it's too late, he's got this one in the bag.
I'm really dissapointed in Webber. He is the only man with the equipment to challenge Vettel at the moment, yet he hasn't challenged Vettel once this season. Someone said that Karthekeyan wasn't trying or giving 100% in another post but I think this should be said of Webber. This guy battles to finish on the podium in most races with clearly the best car of the field. I couldn't believe he managed to qualify in 18th place at one stage - in a RED BULL!! =D>
He should be sacked immediately and Hamilton should take his place. That's the only way I see Vettel being challenged because he clearly has far superior equipment and a far inferior team mate!

[Caito]

We're not halfway yet. It's un-probable ( :p ), but if someone got lotsa points advantage in 8 races, why can't someone else do the same in 11?

[ringo]

We're not halfway yet. It's un-probable ( :p ), but if someone got lotsa points advantage in 8 races, why can't someone else do the same in 11?

eggsactly. =D>
Glad some one realizes.
Easy come easy go.

And if it doesn't work that way,

Nothing a few team orders can't fix.

race 9
"Felipe Vettel is about to lap you, you can't see him pull up beside you without a white visor do you understand?"

race 10

"Jenson, mechanics have switched to redbull gear.. box when Vettel box Jenson."

and so on.

There are ways to reverse things with good ole "tactics" in 8 races if Vettel's car is still too good to miss the podium.
Principals like Flavio would flip this thing around in a heart beat.

[flynfrog]

We're not halfway yet. It's un-probable ( :p ), but if someone got lotsa points advantage in 8 races, why can't someone else do the same in 11?

eggsactly. =D>
Glad some one realizes.
Easy come easy go.

And if it doesn't work that way,

Nothing a few team orders can't fix.

race 9
"Felipe Vettel is about to lap you, you can't see him pull up beside you without a white visor do you understand?"

race 10

"Jenson, mechanics have switched to redbull gear.. box when Vettel box Jenson."

and so on.

There are ways to reverse things with good ole "tactics" in 8 races if Vettel's car is still too good to miss the podium.
Principals like Flavio would flip this thing around in a heart beat.

even if the redbulls found them selves fighting the mercs and renaults for
5th place there is no one with that dominate of a car to win all of the first places needed. Most teams will be or already have stopped development.


To quote a different thread its possible but not probable.

[PlatinumZealot]

So no other driver cars stand a realistic chance of winning even though 11 races are left then... Talk about Car dominance. Good thing I am supporting redBull now.

[Caito]

I'll make it even simpler. If you were so sure about it, you would have bet lotsa money in there. So, have you?

[raymondu999]

I know I put money on Vettel back when he was still paying 4:1 and not 0.05:1

[CHT]

11 race down, 8 more to go.

How could RBR possibly lose it?

WDC
01 Sebastian Vettel 234 (+85)
02 Mark Webber 149
03 Lewis Hamilton 146
04 Fernando Alonso 145
05 Jenson Button 134

WCC
01 RBR-Renault 383 (+103)
02 McLaren-Mercedes 280
03 Ferrari 215

[beelsebob]

11 race down, 8 more to go.

How could RBR possibly lose it?

WDC
01 Sebastian Vettel 234 (+85)
02 Mark Webber 149
03 Lewis Hamilton 146
04 Fernando Alonso 145
05 Jenson Button 134

WCC
01 RBR-Renault 383 (+103)
02 McLaren-Mercedes 280
03 Ferrari 215

Personally, I see it as relatively likely that McLaren can win the WCC – note "relatively". They have 2 drivers that can pump in the results reliably, unlike RBR, and they have a car that now seems to be marginally faster than the RBR. They could be on RBR within 3-4 races.

[raymondu999]

In case anyone's interested;
Vettel 234
Webber 149
Hamilton 146
Alonso 145
Button 134

Right now there are 200 points to play so it's still very open. It's not possible for Vettel to wrap things up by Monza either. The earliest possibility is Singapore (race 14, 5 races left, 125 to play for). Do note that in all of my calculations I put him up has having clinched the title by 1 point at least; and I don't take into account countback as there are more races left than Vettel has already won this season.

In order for Vettel to wrap things up by the Singapore race chequered flag; he has to, over the next 3 races, outscore:
Webber by 41 points (13.67 average)
Hamilton by 38 points (12.67 average)
Alonso by 37 points (12.33 average)
Button by 26 points (8.66 average)

For him to do so by the Suzuka chequered, he has to outscore (over the next 4 races):
Webber by 16 points (4 average)
Hamilton by 13 points (3.25 average)
Alonso by 12 points (3 average)
Button by 1 point (0.25 average)

By Korea, it changes the picture dramatically, as Vettel just needs to "not lose" points rather than "gain points."
Webber can catch him by 9 points (1.8 average)
Hamilton can catch him by 12 points (2.4 average)
Alonso can catch him by 13 points (2.6 average)
Button can catch him by 24 points (4.8 average)

By India:
Webber can catch him by 34 points (5.67 average)
Hamilton can catch him by 37 points (6.17 average)
Alonso can catch him by 38 points (6.33 average)
Button can catch him by 49 points (8.17 average)

By Abu Dhabi:
Webber can catch him by 59 points (8.43 average)
Hamilton can catch him by 62 points (8.86 average)
Alonso can catch him by 63 points (9 average)
Button can catch him by 74 points (10.57 average)

By Brazil:
Webber can catch him by 84 points (10.5 average)
Hamilton can catch him by 87 points (10.875 average)
Alonso can catch him by 88 points (11 average)
Button can catch him by 99 points (12.375 average)

Now I hope I haven't scared anyone off here; and that you all understand the numbers. Cya in 4 weeks guys. I'll do up one more after Spa

[internetf1fan]

The closest team to RBR seems to be McLaren at the moment, and there is no chance of them taking the WDC because of their stupid decision to let the drivers race each other resulting in taking points of each other/risking DNFs through contact/losing points due to strategy gambles.

You just have to compare it to how RBR or Ferrari operates.

[beelsebob]

The closest team to RBR seems to be McLaren at the moment, and there is no chance of them taking the WDC because of their stupid decision to let the drivers race each other resulting in taking points of each other/risking DNFs through contact/losing points due to strategy gambles.

You just have to compare it to how RBR or Ferrari operates.

Huh? RBR allows their drivers to race too – the only time they've blocked them from racing was in the closing laps when it risked DNFs more than it gained anything.

[JohnsonsEvilTwin]

When has RBR let their drivers race this year?

The difference between RBR and Mclaren is very stark indeed.

[raymondu999]

I think given that Alonso is only 1 point behind hamilton, which over 8 races, let's face it - they're practically equal. Given that Alo is only one point behind and is team numero uno, I'd say at this point, based on points alone, Alonso is more of a threat to Vettel than Hamilton. Car advantage/disadvantage notwithstanding, that is.

[i70q7m7ghw]

The biggest issue this year has been the fact the Top 3 teams are miles ahead of the mid-field. Even when they have a bad race they still finish well inside the points. Look at Hamilton last race, his race fell apart but he still finished 4th.

Easier overtaking is probably part to blame as well, the faster cars are much more likely to make it back through the field if they have a poor start or grid slot. Obviously good reliability is also a factor.