2011 WDC and WCC odds

[andrew]

Would you not be better looking at 5 or 6 bookies and then going on average odds?

[Mr Alcatraz]

Well Germany beat Spain in F1 in 2010...

Paul was "sanctioned" October 26 2010
The WDC was decided less than three weeks later

Aquarium spokeswoman Ariane Vieregge in Oberhausen said Tuesday that Paul seemed fine when checked on late Monday night but was found dead in his tank Tuesday morning.

I rest my case.

[Tamburello]

And I think you neglect the fact that bookmaking is not a charitable endeavor, and, as such, the primary role of betting odds is to ensure the bookmaker a profit regardless of the outcome. That leaves betting odds with no real-world predictive value whatsoever - which is what I was trying to say when I misspoke by mentioning cause/effect relationships. In fact, bookmakers rely on most people getting it all wrong.

That's why statements like the ones I've highlighted below strike me as nonsensical voodoo.

In the odds data table everything looks like the two championships will be contested between Red Bull and McLaren. The match odds are very clear.

The WDC looks like a four horse race realistically if you go by the odds.

Hamilton takes a big jump upwards in the WDC table and we can perhaps close the group of pretenders behind Massa. Let's have a look at the odds first before coming to conclusions.

(I guess I'm still feeling argumentative today. Maybe I'm manstruating.)

You are of course entitled to any opinion, but please take into account that BetFair odds were selected for this project because they are not made by a bookie to maximise the profit. The odds are the result of the the amount of money spent by the betters and are automatically generated by an algorithm. Betfair takes a small percentage from every winning bet to cover cost and profit. That way the odds are purely generated by market conditions where people vote with their pocket book.

I have only observed the 2010 and now the 2011 season, so I have no data how the Schumacher domination looked in the view of the punters.

But how are the opening odds generated?

[WhiteBlue]

Would you not be better looking at 5 or 6 bookies and then going on average odds?

I did that last year, but the results will never be as accurate as with BetFair. You can't beat a market driven algorithm particularly with the service available world wide on the internet. It is perfect for mirroring open market conditions.

But how are the opening odds generated?

People can place back and lay bets at any odds they wish. After the start of the first race only the balanced bets are valid and the bets that have not been met by the computer generated odds are dumped from the system. Its a very fair way to start a market.

[WhiteBlue]

Today I found the time to write my customary update on the odds and tables after the Spanish GP. I have been a bit busy, so please excuse the delay. The odds are those of today and might have changed a little from directly after the race.



Schumacher and Rosberg were doing better than before and gained position. Other than that little changed in the WDC table.



Both Red Bull and Vettel are on an unprecedented high for this season.



The WDC series plot looks like the betting money has lost faith in Alonso's WDC chances.



Merc make some progress in catching Renault but they are still struggling and not where they are supposed to be according to their financial strength.



Ferrari have all but lost the game for the 2011 WCC it looks like.

[WhiteBlue]

Today I found the time to record and comment the odds and tables after the Canadian GP. I missed the Monaco results in terms of the odds. Sorry for that.



The drivers table shows Button and Hamilton basically swapping positions. Alonso is now far behind with half the points of Vettel. Vettel looks like the champion already. One would be brave not to bet on him.



In the odds table the match odds of Hamilton and Button look surprisingly similar, which is no great surprise considering Button moved to the P2 in the championship standing but Hamilton is still the man the punters expect to carry the fight to Red Bull.



In the serial WDC odds graph Button (20) has displaced Alonso (22) to P4. Alonso seems to be out of the game.



The constructors table is no consolation for Ferrari. They are hopelessly behind after more than one third of the championship. Merc are behind Renault again and are still punching below their weight class.



In the odds Ferrari looks even more hopeless. With odds of 110 to win the constructors they go tripple off the scale of the graph. They can just as well focus on the 2012 car according to the betting money.

[raymondu999]

What I find amazing is that 2nd - 4th in the standings (points) reversed order (in terms of standings, not points). If they keep on squabbling, nobody will be there in the end to take Vettel to the finish of the year. Awesome

[beelsebob]

What I find amazing is that 2nd - 4th in the standings (points) reversed order (in terms of standings, not points). If they keep on squabbling, nobody will be there in the end to take Vettel to the finish of the year. Awesome

This is exactly why 5-6 races is typically enough to win the WDC... You might say "but but but... 6 wins means 13 for someone else to take", but generally there's 3-4 people squabbling over them, so they each take 4ish at most.

[raymondu999]

Yeap. If you rearranged the races in say... 2007/2008/2010 so that the champion gets all his wins early on and suffers then after, all of them would probably be dominantly starting the years too, and then maintaining their lead.

[raymondu999]

Been a while since your last update WB?

[raymondu999]

Is this ever going to get updated again WB?

[WhiteBlue]

There has been very little interest because of the one horse race. I'm also quite busy with other things like 3D design, so I had little spare time to dedicate to the task. If there are more requests I may do a couple of updates.

[raymondu999]

Ah. How about an odds analysis for the 2nd place battle?

[Mr Alcatraz]

I just ran across this:
http://www.skybet.com/betting/formula-1 ... 60628.html
I hope your not cross at me for me posting it on your thread WB
I think Mike is worth a Tenner, as well as a couple other longer shots!

Italian GP Race Winner
Italian GP | Friday 9th September 2011 | 09:00 |
StatisticsRace
TopRace Winner Sebastian Vettel 2/1 Fernando Alonso 11/4
Lewis Hamilton 10/3 Mark Webber 11/2
Jenson Button 8/1 Felipe Massa 33/1
Nico Rosberg 40/1 Michael Schumacher 66/1
Adrian Sutil 250/1 Paul di Resta 350/1
Bruno Senna 350/1 Vitaly Petrov 350/1
Sergio Perez 500/1 Kamui Kobayashi 500/1
Pastor Maldonado 1000/1 Rubens Barrichello 1000/1
Sebastien Buemi 1000/1 Jaime Alguersuari 1000/1
Jarno Trulli 2000/1 Heikke Kovalainen 2000/1
Timo Glock 5000/1 Jerome d'Ambrosio 5000/1
Vitantonio Liuzzi 5000/1 Daniel Ricciardo 5000/1