2017 Championship Permutations

[Cannonballer]

I never said that... I just said that the significance of a 28 points lead depends highly on how strong the 3 teams (RB, Mercedes and Ferrari) will be relative to one another in the 6 remaining races. If we had 6 races like Monaco, Hungary and Singapore, then quite evidently, a 28 points lead for Mercedes would be different than if we had 6 Monza tracks coming up.

The problem is, we don't quite know who will suit which track due to many unknowns (from engine to allocated parts to tire wear and characteristics of the car, the updates to come and the layout of the track as well as unforeseen circumstances). If we assume Mercedes will be strong contenders on most tracks, then yes, it will likely take a miracle for Vettel to win. If Mercedes finds itself in trouble on N tracks, the odds change. The higher the number N, the more they change. Evidently, some believe that even if Vettel wins 4 races and Hamilton the other 2, it's done and dusted (in Hamilton's favor), but that depends highly on how each perform when not winning.

I think Vettel's odds of winning the championship are <25% and offering 3:1 would be profitable. Do you disagree?

[Phil]

Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?

[zac510]

Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?

I'm sure he will because he can hedge his risk against the high street bookmakers where Vettel is 4/1

[godlameroso]

The next Mercedes favorable track is Suzuka, COTA and Mexico are toss ups, and could go either way, true Mexico has long straights, but it also has low drag, and downforce makes a bigger difference, not to mention all the low and mid speed corners favor Ferrari. COTA has a mix of everything and the Mercedes has areas where it's better, and Ferrari is faster in other areas so too close to call. Brazil is a Mercedes track, and Abu-Dhabi, I see again as a Ferrari track despite the two long straights, although Hamilton is mighty around there. Mercedes is definitely sitting pretty at the moment, but there are still 5 races to play 5 x 7 = 35, the lead is 28 points so there's everything to play for, all it takes is one mistake on Hamilton's part and that advantage can disappear.

[Cannonballer]

Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?

Of course the odds will have changed with new information. I would, but I no longer think it would be massively profitable. But that has no bearing on the profitability of the bet, and the odds of Vettel winning, when I offered it.

[Schuttelberg]

Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?

There's not a chance in hell that Seb can win the title now. Lewis has the points, the fastest car and the experience of fighting for championships. He's not going to risk jack from here onwards and he can simply limit the damage on weekends that Ferrari can compete. I don't think Kimi can beat Lewis even in a faster car. Sebastian's only chance is if Lewis has a DNF and he wins and I don't think the Merc will break down anytime soon.

[i70q7m7ghw]

Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?

What should we offer now?

[TAG]

Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?

What should we offer now?

Now, be nice.

[TAG]

What this is turning into is a very unusual situation for Hamilton where the F1 gods have smiled on him while being on the back foot. Twice now! Ten year career and he's usually on the other side of the luck coin. If he wins tomorrow it won't be like it was a gift, but a win in Malaysia is much more assured than it would have been had he to fight Vettel for it.

The last thing I want is a "WDC a la Rosberg" for Hamilton this year. Not that Hamilton won't finish the season with the most poles and potentially with the most wins but that a poor showing due to a mechanical issue puts the championship out of reach. I want to see a fight goddaamit!

[i70q7m7ghw]

What this is turning into is a very unusual situation for Hamilton where the F1 gods have smiled on him while being on the back foot. Twice now! Ten year career and he's usually on the other side of the luck coin. If he wins tomorrow it won't be like it was a gift, but a win in Malaysia is much more assured than it would have been had he to fight Vettel for it.

The last thing I want is a "WDC a la Rosberg" for Hamilton this year. Not that Hamilton won't finish the season with the most poles and potentially with the most wins but that a poor showing due to a mechanical issue puts the championship out of reach. I want to see a fight goddaamit!

I'd say the slight difference this year is Vettel/Hamilton are very close when they've been on track fighting it out. Last year the majority of the times there wasn't some other issue Hamilton was easily beating Rosberg, there weren't many times it was the other way around. At the end of the season, there weren't many who disputed who the stronger driver was, and that took a bit of a shine of the WDC result.

This year technical issues have been much less of a factor, and they both seem to have had their fair share of bad luck. The only change recently was Singapore, and I'm not sure that can completely be blamed on bad luck.

[Fulcrum]

Malaysia doesn't typically resolve itself as per grid order - certainly not as prominently as other circuits on the calendar, so there is some scope for Vettel to limit the damage. But the outcomes are very heavily slanted against him now.

A Hamilton DNF, 1st corner incident, or terrible start, seem the only likely ways in which Vettel will not lose further points to Hamilton. Rain could help too, but it could do the opposite.

[PlatinumZealot]

Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?

There's not a chance in hell that Seb can win the title now. Lewis has the points, the fastest car and the experience of fighting for championships. He's not going to risk jack from here onwards and he can simply limit the damage on weekends that Ferrari can compete. I don't think Kimi can beat Lewis even in a faster car. Sebastian's only chance is if Lewis has a DNF and he wins and I don't think the Merc will break down anytime soon.

I think that fastest car thing has been overplayed. The Mercedes is certainly not the fastest car in Sepang. It was just bad luck on Vettel's part today why he didn't come away with pole. Mercedes themselves were also lucky that they managed to lift themselves out of the gutters. Well, maybe only on one side of the garage - Hamilton's side. But still the race is tomorrow and Ferrari was the only car with consistent race pace so I do not want to hear you Ferrari people continue to cry your crocodile tears! It is not 2014 where points swings are counted in sevens; remember a bad day for either Vettel or Lewis can be up to 15 points... or more.. it is not over till its over.

Ferrari fans this is for you:

[Schuttelberg]

Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?

There's not a chance in hell that Seb can win the title now. Lewis has the points, the fastest car and the experience of fighting for championships. He's not going to risk jack from here onwards and he can simply limit the damage on weekends that Ferrari can compete. I don't think Kimi can beat Lewis even in a faster car. Sebastian's only chance is if Lewis has a DNF and he wins and I don't think the Merc will break down anytime soon.

I think that fastest car thing has been overplayed. The Mercedes is certainly not the fastest car in Sepang. It was just bad luck on Vettel's part today why he didn't come away with pole. Mercedes themselves were also lucky that they managed to lift themselves out of the gutters. Well, maybe only on one side of the garage - Hamilton's side. But still the race is tomorrow and Ferrari was the only car with consistent race pace so I do not want to hear you Ferrari people continue to cry your crocodile tears! It is not 2014 where points swings are counted in sevens; remember a bad day for either Vettel or Lewis can be up to 15 points... or more.. it is not over till its over.

Ferrari fans this is for you:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTAnNtf3u1A

First of all, I'm not a Ferrari man. I'm strictly a Vettel supporter.

On the subject of 'faster car', if practice times are deterrent to determining the fastest car, Ferrari would have been WCC in 2016. Of the 15 races so far, Mercedes have had pole in 11 events and won 9 races of the 14. I'm in no way trying to say that Vettel has been out-performing the Ferrari because I'm one of those practical non-romantic chaps that believes the driver can only maximise the true potential of the car, that too 98% of it at best. Ferrari have definitely kept Mercedes honest this year compared to the snooze fest of 2014-16 but to say Ferrari has been an equal to Mercedes is a pathetic exaggeration, mostly by the media to make Hamilton look like some driving god. Mind you, I do believe Lewis has been the best driver this year, but just by a whisker from Sebastian.

On the subject of the championship? Lewis or Sebastian aren't 23 anymore. Lewis will not do anything that's impetuous or impulsive and throw away this championship. The Mercedes has been bullet proof and Lewis is due some luck after 2016. The title was hanging by a thread after Singapore and after today the thread has been well and truly cut off. I've seen stranger turn arounds in F1, but it happens once in 20 years.

Lastly, I'm very grateful that Seb has had a proper go this year at the championship and not at all sour about Lewis becoming champion again. He thoroughly deserves it and is a great champion. The only thing I really loathe is how his fans are trying to show that he's done it in a weaker car against a WDC rival who has a number 2 for help while Lewis has done it all himself against all odds and also thwarted a world class team mate.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

I do believe Lewis has been the best driver this year, but just by a whisker from Sebastian.

By a whisker? Sorry friend, disagree.
- Vettel's frustration was on full display in Baku and Silverstone and that doesn't say, he can be the best driver of the season.
- Got beaten by Kimi in Italy, under challenging conditions, while two other really good drivers for wet conditions excelled.
- Couldn't really go for the kill in Russia and Austria. (Atleast Lewis did it in Spain).
- Neither does Singapore's race start positions him to be the driver of the year.

You need to excel against the odds and deliver when it was least expected of you. The year has put both Lewis and Vettel against the odds and it's only Lewis who has delivered. In both Silverstone and Monza, when the car was not up to the competition, he got out-qualified from his team mate! Even when the car was best suited in Monaco, where Mercedes was struggling badly, Vettel was out-qualified by his team mate there too.

While Lewis failed to excel in Russia, Monaco and Hungary (W08's least conforming circuits, but no excuses), he raised to the situation in Spain (Ferrari's winter testing performance held them as favorites), Canada (after a horrible performance in Monaco, Mercedes was not being counted), delivered a supreme performance in Italy, Singapore (race) and Malaysia (up until now, having faced one of the worst Fridays of the season).

[Phil]

Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?

What should we offer now?

Funny. I was curious to see if anyone would man up or not. Turns out, no one did.

Yet Malaysia proved my point perfectly. That W08 is according to Mercedes own assessment a diva. It has a very narrow operating window and when it doesnt work, they struggle. FP2 and FP3 proved this nicely on what many labeled ‘a Mercedes track’ and demonstrates how quickly the tide could turn when things dont run according to plan.

They could have just as well been 5th at best today, meanwhile Ferrari (sans unfortunate engine failures) shows what a steadily strong contender they are.

Christmas came early today. If Hamilton extends his lead further tomorrow it will hurt Vettels chances double as the gap will increase with a GP less on the table.