2017 Championship Permutations

[turbof1]

...all I want still, is a full head to head battle between Hamilton and Vettel. Why is it that we keep getting robbed of it by the F1 gods?

Maybe we aren't. Even though Vettel loosing points right now, it's not like Mercedes is steamrolling through. If for instance the next 2 grand prix show the same relative performance without crashes or failures as we had in Singapore and Malaysia, things can swing around very quickly. Mercedes being that downbeat about their performance in Malaysia speaks volumes: they understand the luck they got will not last forever.

[Jolle]

Just out of interest, would Raikkonen have incurred any penalties if Ferrari had changed the Turbo Charger during the race, then sent him out, 20 - 30 laps down? Likewise for other components that could be changed quickly. It just feels like they've missed an opportunity to introduce extra engine components, while taking the full penalty of their failure.

You can’t receive grid penalties after the start, so no...

[TAG]

...all I want still, is a full head to head battle between Hamilton and Vettel. Why is it that we keep getting robbed of it by the F1 gods?

Maybe we aren't. Even though Vettel loosing points right now, it's not like Mercedes is steamrolling through. If for instance the next 2 grand prix show the same relative performance without crashes or failures as we had in Singapore and Malaysia, things can swing around very quickly. Mercedes being that downbeat about their performance in Malaysia speaks volumes: they understand the luck they got will not last forever.

Maybe, if it's simply down to heat and keeping the tires in the window, which I think it's all that there is, then I don't believe we'll see a hot race day until the season end in Abu Dhabi.

Japan, cool, Austin, cool, Mexico, cool, Brazil, cool. Don't expect issues there.

I think the "Diva" title on the W08 was earned as soon as Merc lost the FRIC suspension at the beginning of the year. Don't expect them to come back with the same issue next year, it's not the German way.

[Phil]

Just a thought. People are suggesting that Vettel won't have any more reliability problems as a result of his new PU at Sepang. But with 5 races remaining, that PU will have to do 6 races in total...has any Ferrari PU managed that this season without a failure??

Vettel has at least two engines in the pool. The engine that failed for qf is not “damaged” - they just had a problem when they had to swap it within 2 hours. Then they allocated another engine (no. 5) because he was already starting last amyway, so as far as i am aware, he now has 2 fresh engines for the remainder of the season.

[Fulcrum]

Just out of interest, would Raikkonen have incurred any penalties if Ferrari had changed the Turbo Charger during the race, then sent him out, 20 - 30 laps down? Likewise for other components that could be changed quickly. It just feels like they've missed an opportunity to introduce extra engine components, while taking the full penalty of their failure.

You can’t receive grid penalties after the start, so no...

So I guess my follow-up question would be, what components could have been changed within a race duration? If any, then surely this is a serious miss on Ferrari's part?

[Jolle]

Just out of interest, would Raikkonen have incurred any penalties if Ferrari had changed the Turbo Charger during the race, then sent him out, 20 - 30 laps down? Likewise for other components that could be changed quickly. It just feels like they've missed an opportunity to introduce extra engine components, while taking the full penalty of their failure.

You can’t receive grid penalties after the start, so no...

So I guess my follow-up question would be, what components could have been changed within a race duration? If any, then surely this is a serious miss on Ferrari's part?

I guess you can change a lot, under parc ferme rules you can change more or less the whole car, as long as it's with pieces of the same specs. PU-elements under the "four a season" rule, you will need a penalty for any extra element.

Practical you could, you would think, use a spare car and just say "well, we just changed all of the bits", but in practice that is impossible because there are rules how much your spare tub may be build up.

I guess it's not permitted to change the fw or fw for another spec on the grid, but adjustments may be made (like flap angle)

[notsofast]

Admittedly we're off topic, but Fulcrum is making a fair point. Cars are no longer under parc ferme rules after the race has started.

[TAG]

it would have to be done in under an hour and forty five minutes or so, white the race was in place and I'm sure there would have to be some scruteneering to allow the car to be deemed legal. Anyone thinking that can be done in that time frame when Ferrari barely got Vettel's car ready for Q1 after FP3 is smoking something really wacky.

[Fulcrum]

it would have to be done in under an hour and forty five minutes or so, white the race was in place and I'm sure there would have to be some scruteneering to allow the car to be deemed legal. Anyone thinking that can be done in that time frame when Ferrari barely got Vettel's car ready for Q1 after FP3 is smoking something really wacky.

Admittedly, I'm probably the one doing the smoking, but that's why I am asking. Of the various things that can be changed (ICU, MGU-H, MGU-K, CE, Gearbox, TC, anything else?) are there any that are capable of being changed within that time frame? Effectively 90 minutes.

Also, if Ferrari were to have said, "Yes, we've changed it, Kimi, off you go!" Subsequently to find the changed, and brand new, part isn't working, would that make a difference? What I'm getting at here is the possibility of "installing" the part quickly, knowing it won't be functional, but avoiding a penalty.

E.g. is it possible to fit the TC without it working? Kimi limps round for one lap, new TC for the next race.

[NathanOlder]

Wasn't there a rule somewhere that once the car goes in to the garage its finished the race ? Or am i thinking of a different Formula ?

[Just_a_fan]

Admittedly we're off topic, but Fulcrum is making a fair point. Cars are no longer under parc ferme rules after the race has started.

But they are still controlled by the overall limited on PU component numbers.

Anyway, if the only way to get extra components is to effectively throw away an entire race event, you may as well just take a grid penalty and start with the hope of points.

[ringo]

So vettel has 2 engines to use free of penalty. What does Hamilton have left?

[Restomaniac]

So vettel has 2 engines to use free of penalty. What does Hamilton have left?

4 ICEs
1 of which has ran 2 races and 1 of which has ran 3 races. On more than one occasion they have also turned those motors down in races.
Each is supposed to last 5 races so Mercedes are right on schedule on that regard. Also remember that both Mercedes drivers were still using engine #2 in the Singapore race. No doubt engines 3&4 will only be used for Qualifying and races and 1&2 will get the practice sessions. I don't think they will actually have a problem.

I however am interested in how much extra speed those supposed 10 extra horses in the Ferrari ICE brings.

[Cannonballer]

So I've run the numbers through my sheet:

As far as permutations go, it hasn't really changed much. Vettel is still entirely consistent with the trend so far this year. When he finishes behind Hamilton, he is usually not far behind. In reality, finishing 4th to Hamilton 2nd is actually better than if Hamilton had won and him finishing runner up (net-loss 7 points vs 6).

The points gap is now 34 points in Hamiltons favor with 7 wins vs 4. Vettel however has way more 2nd places, so assuming Vettel draws even on wins and they equalize on points, Vettel would take the WDC.

The odds have slightly increased for Hamilton on the basis that he "won" Malaysia relative to Vettel and now Vettel is faced with having one race less, meaning more pressure for him on doing well at the next 5 races. This means that if Hamilton secures one more win, he can afford to finish 3rd in all of the upcoming races and he will be crowned WDC with 1 point (366 vs 365 points).

They haven't changed much from Vettels perspective. If Vettel wins all 5 remaining races, he will be WDC, regardless what Hamilton does. More so, if he wins 4 races, assuming Hamilton wins the 5th race, there's a high probability that Vettel could still win the championship on the basis that for Hamilton to prevent that, he would have to finish 3rd in every race at least. This is probably quite unlikely, as Hamilton has finished on average in position 3.8 across (when not winning). Malaysia has also shown that Mercedes either have a very quick car and if it isn't, there's a high probability that RedBull is also in the hunt, which could potentially push Mercedes further down the grid, meaning a bigger net loss.

Having that said: if Hamilton wins 2 more races, he'll be in a very comfortable position in that he can afford to come 5th, 5th and 6th in the other 3 races to still grab the championship. Alternatively, he could also afford a DNF and a 4th and 3rd place. Another possibility: 6th, 6th and 4th.

If Hamilton wins 3 races, he is WDC and can afford two DNFs.


Adding to that, some things to consider:

- Ferrari continue to show very strong pace on all race tracks
- RedBull has increasingly become a very strong competitor
- Vettel gearbox penalty coming in Japan?
- Vettel/Ferrari have 2 new engines (PU4&5) for the rest of the year if I am not mistaken
- How vulnerable will Mercedes be on any of the next 5 tracks?
- Mercedes performance question mark in Mexico (high altitude) and Brazil
- Mercedes is probably still a force in qualifying which will be great on tracks where overtaking is difficult
- Vettel can no longer afford RedBull to take wins, unless Mercedes run into big reliability issues:
- Easy math: 35 gap / 5 races = 7 points per race is what he needs to overcome on average.
- that's the gap between 1st vs 2nd, 2nd vs 5th, 3rd vs 6th, 4th vs 8th, 5th vs 9th and 6th vs 10th or worse.

So what are Vettel's chances expressed as a percentage? I am still more than happy to offer 3:1 odd for Vettel as WDC. How about loser donates in the name of winner and F1Technical.net to charity?

[TAG]

I'd be more than happy to put my fifty bucks against Phil's 150, a charitable donation sounds just the ticket.