2017 Championship Permutations

[SectorOne]

So vettel has 2 engines to use free of penalty. What does Hamilton have left?

4 ICEs
1 of which has ran 2 races and 1 of which has ran 3 races. On more than one occasion they have also turned those motors down in races.

So they have one engine that has run it´s full 5 race schedule and one completely new engine to spare?

[Restomaniac]

So vettel has 2 engines to use free of penalty. What does Hamilton have left?

4 ICEs
1 of which has ran 2 races and 1 of which has ran 3 races. On more than one occasion they have also turned those motors down in races.

So they have one engine that has run it´s full 5 race schedule and one completely new engine to spare?

No they have all their 4 engines in use but with 5 races left each SHOULD run 5 races.
Engine 3 has already ran 3 races it needs to run 2 more
Engine 4 has already ran 2 races it needs to run 3 more.

That was why I said that they are right on schedule.

[Phil]

I'd be more than happy to put my fifty bucks against Phil's 150, a charitable donation sounds just the ticket.

Some things to ponder:

From the last 5 races, Ferrari was the technically the team with the fastest car in 4 of those:

Hungary
Spa
Singapore
Malaysia

Monza clearly didn't work for Ferrari. Neither did Silverstone. Hungary was rather close for both. But if we just look at the last 5 races, all with the exception of Monza, it's rather striking that it was Ferrari who had the quickest car.

One could argue that Spa was Mercedes to lose and that they optimized the car too much around top-line speed vs lap-time, but even so, that Ferrari was way too close on what everyone thought would be a Mercedes track.

Singapore and Malaysia, the last two races, Ferrari clearly stood in their own way to get the results they should have. In Singapore, Vettel with a driver action and in Malaysia, the car let both of them down.

Now, I am not suggesting Vettel/Ferrari are clear favorites, not with a points gap of 34 points, but obviously with 3 teams and 6 drivers in contention, that gap can narrow extremely quick depending on how the races turn out. This ain't 2014-2016 anymore when it was a two-horse race within the same team and only a realistic point swing of 7 points per race. The difference between finishing 5th or 6th towards the winner is a potential 13 to 15 points loss.

[SiLo]

I think people underestimate Hamilton's drive in Spa. I have a feeling he could have gone plenty faster if needed. He was always able to keep out of DRS range the entire race. And regularly put in a very quick lap to extend the gap when it got too close.

[TAG]

^^ hahaha are you trying to talk me out of it or are you trying to talk yourself out of it? Put up or shut up... the gauntlet has been thrown down!

[Phil]

I think people underestimate Hamilton's drive in Spa. I have a feeling he could have gone plenty faster if needed. He was always able to keep out of DRS range the entire race. And regularly put in a very quick lap to extend the gap when it got too close.

I'm not underestimating anyone. Hamilton got the win because he drove flawless, fantastic and defensively brilliant. However, it is painfully clear that that gap was way too close and if Hamilton/Mercedes had more pace in hand, they would have used it to get a more comfortable gap. So I am going by what the team said, what Hamilton said post race and what all indications are regarding Spa and other races. This is simply being objective and rating the respective cars and how their performance stacked up to one another.


@Tag
I'm not one to bet, nor am I predicting anything. If you think so, I suggest you go back and read my posts. It's okay to be optimistic. I just prefer to be realistic and all I am doing here is showing that the suggested point-gap is not all that much. It would have been massive last year, because circumstances were different. On the basis that Ferrari have a damn quick car, that Mercedes evidently still need to make compromises to get the tires into the correct temperature range, RedBull and both their drivers are in the hunt for wins or good positions, it's just not that comfortable. As a Hamilton supporter, why should I bet on Vettel? I fully conceded that the odds favor Hamilton (duh), that is undisputed. I am just not of the same opinion that the odds are that favorable. It really depends how Mercedes perform, how RedBull performs and how Vettel and Kimi performs in the next 5 races.

[F1NAC]

I'd be more than happy to put my fifty bucks against Phil's 150, a charitable donation sounds just the ticket.

Some things to ponder:

From the last 5 races, Ferrari was the technically the team with the fastest car in 4 of those:

Hungary
Spa
Singapore
Malaysia

Monza clearly didn't work for Ferrari. Neither did Silverstone. Hungary was rather close for both. But if we just look at the last 5 races, all with the exception of Monza, it's rather striking that it was Ferrari who had the quickest car.

One could argue that Spa was Mercedes to lose and that they optimized the car too much around top-line speed vs lap-time, but even so, that Ferrari was way too close on what everyone thought would be a Mercedes track.

Singapore and Malaysia, the last two races, Ferrari clearly stood in their own way to get the results they should have. In Singapore, Vettel with a driver action and in Malaysia, the car let both of them down.

Now, I am not suggesting Vettel/Ferrari are clear favorites, not with a points gap of 34 points, but obviously with 3 teams and 6 drivers in contention, that gap can narrow extremely quick depending on how the races turn out. This ain't 2014-2016 anymore when it was a two-horse race within the same team and only a realistic point swing of 7 points per race. The difference between finishing 5th or 6th towards the winner is a potential 13 to 15 points loss.

What the heck happened at Silverstone then for Ferrari? Terrible mess with setup? they were well off pace there, yet in Malaysia they shined

[SiLo]

Tyres. A lot of the performance swings are down to tyres this year. Ferrari area just getting more out of the tyre than Mercedes with a more compliant setup.

Silverstone was probably a showcase of Mercs ultimate pace. The track was well suited to their car, the conditions suited their car and Hamilton was driving supremely.

[TAG]

Going forward this thread should include an "if it rains, Vettel loses the championship" clause.

[SectorOne]

4 ICEs
1 of which has ran 2 races and 1 of which has ran 3 races. On more than one occasion they have also turned those motors down in races.

So they have one engine that has run it´s full 5 race schedule and one completely new engine to spare?

No they have all their 4 engines in use but with 5 races left each SHOULD run 5 races.
Engine 3 has already ran 3 races it needs to run 2 more
Engine 4 has already ran 2 races it needs to run 3 more.

That was why I said that they are right on schedule.

Ok now im confused. Could you list all 4 engines and how many races they have done?

[Restomaniac]

So they have one engine that has run it´s full 5 race schedule and one completely new engine to spare?

No they have all their 4 engines in use but with 5 races left each SHOULD run 5 races.
Engine 3 has already ran 3 races it needs to run 2 more
Engine 4 has already ran 2 races it needs to run 3 more.

That was why I said that they are right on schedule.

Ok now im confused. Could you list all 4 engines and how many races they have done?

I can't because I don't know.

All we did know is that in Singapore ICE 2 was used and ICEs 3&4 had ran 2 races each at that point. Obviously 1 of them ran Malaysia.
So ICEs 3&4 have Collectively ran 5 races. They need to run another 5 together and their needed and expected life expectancy is exactly those 5 races which gives them 10 races together (5 races each). Like I say they are right of schedule.

Sorry if that is still confusing. Pretty much each ICE needs to run 5 races to avoid penalties and Mercedes are right on track to achieve that.

[SectorOne]

I can't because I don't know.

All we did know is that in Singapore ICE 2 was used and ICEs 3&4 had ran 2 races each at that point. Obviously 1 of them ran Malaysia.
So ICEs 3&4 have Collectively ran 5 races. They need to run another 5 together and their needed and expected life expectancy is exactly those 5 races which gives them 10 races together (5 races each). Like I say they are right of schedule.

Sorry if that is still confusing. Pretty much each ICE needs to run 5 races to avoid penalties and Mercedes are right on track to achieve that.

Thanks, it definitely cleared it up some.

[Restomaniac]

I can't because I don't know.

All we did know is that in Singapore ICE 2 was used and ICEs 3&4 had ran 2 races each at that point. Obviously 1 of them ran Malaysia.
So ICEs 3&4 have Collectively ran 5 races. They need to run another 5 together and their needed and expected life expectancy is exactly those 5 races which gives them 10 races together (5 races each). Like I say they are right of schedule.

Sorry if that is still confusing. Pretty much each ICE needs to run 5 races to avoid penalties and Mercedes are right on track to achieve that.

Thanks, it definitely cleared it up some.

I'm glad.
Further to this. Merdeces still have ICEs 1&2 kicking about. I have no doubt if they are still in working order I can see them doing FP 1&2 to save the race ICEs.

[SectorOne]

I'm glad.
Further to this. Merdeces still have ICEs 1&2 kicking about. I have no doubt if they are still in working order I can see them doing FP 1&2 to save the race ICEs.

With ICE 3 and ICE 4 having to do 5 more races collectively, and it being 5 races left could we not assume ICE 1 and ICE 2 has done 5 races each?

[Restomaniac]

I'm glad.
Further to this. Merdeces still have ICEs 1&2 kicking about. I have no doubt if they are still in working order I can see them doing FP 1&2 to save the race ICEs.

With ICE 3 and ICE 4 having to do 5 more races collectively, and it being 5 races left could we not assume ICE 1 and ICE 2 has done 5 races each?

We could (and probably should) indeed.