Just_a_fan wrote: ↑10 Oct 2017, 23:10
turbof1 wrote: ↑10 Oct 2017, 22:39
Again, I feel this is more about looking back than analyzing behaviour/weaknesses to assess probability for the next 4 races. Creating a profile for the driver is fine, but shouldn't more effort be put into using the profile to, for instance, predict the start at the next GP?
With respect, this backwards analysis is part of making the profile. You can't start to use the profile to guess future outcomes until the profile is done. Constantly saying "you're looking backwards not forwards" isn't very helpful.
It is in this case. I think there are several pages dedicated on Vettel's profile, so that's definitely complete enough
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Jolle wrote: Not looking back, then it's a clear case of numbers. Taking the past in account, Hamilton's track record on CofA, his spotless car this year and on the other side a challenger who is beginning to get a reputation of not being the cleanest when cars are around him, is still looking forward, but in a bit more detail. A wide track doesn't matter when there is a fight for position. Vettel will be in a disadvantage, he has to finish in front of Hamilton. Hamilton on the other hand can easily hold his line when Vettel is being aggressive. If they both crash it will give Mercedes a one-two in the championship. I also don't see other drivers yield for Vettel. Worst case for Vettel will be Hamilton on pole, his second and Verstappen right behind him (who will run him wide on the exit of the first corner, with Vettel screaming on the radio again and then crashing into Ocon coming back on the tarmac) (and what will be my prize if this will be the case?)
I agree that Vettel will likely not beat Hamilton. US GP has cooler temperatures, and provides low level of surface grip, which suits the Mercedes much better.
That being said, there are a multitude of lines one can take through turn one. The track is too wide to effectively crowd somebody out, unlike in Singapore. Yes that matters as trying to defend and compromise your approach to turn one will give the opponent the oppertunity to carry more speed on an alternative line. A lot less chance on sandwhiching at the front. He's not going to crash in such circumstances. So he's most likely going to end up on the podium. Title is not likely to be decided in these more "crash-unfriendly" circumstances.
Your prize, if you are right, will be that Vettel crashes. I get the impression you're sneakingly hoping for it
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