godlameroso wrote: ↑
Fri May 04, 2018 7:23 pm
BrunoH wrote: ↑
Fri May 04, 2018 5:30 pm
yap, i dont belive in magical 1 second updates. A full real 1 second is give and take a years development give and take.
if they make 0.5 second improvement that will already be huge.
however the competition is also updating, so if they make in real terms 0..250 to 0.3 seconds above the competition its already a huge step forward.
Most cars improve by 1.5 seconds over the winter. Last year both Renault, Red Bull, and FI made gains of over a second mid season when they revamped their packages. So it's not impossible for McLaren to take a similar step.
I say the Spain update is worth .6 immediately but the others gain .3 so they make up .3 relative to the leaders. This would put them under a second off the top race pace. But another .6 is dormant until France or Silverstone. Then we would see the true McLaren 2018 car. This would put them half a second off the top in race pace, enough for Alonso to do his thing.
Actually, McLaren's race pace is already under a second off Ferrari's race pace in free air. Their race pace currently is obviously significantly hampered because of traffic.
Take China for example:
When stuck behind the Haas cars, Alonso was lapping 1.5s off Raikkonen (similar strategy to Alonso), while in free air, Alonso was lapping only 0.8s off Raikkonen. Significant difference.
Alonso was stuck behind Hulkenberg the entire grand prix, which significantly hampered his race pace again. between laps 21 to 40 when McLaren was attempting a one stop, Alonso (on older mediums) was lapping 1.7s slower than Vettel (on softs). He was on pace with Hulkenberg who was on the softs as well. So Alonso's race pace was also hampered because of the Renault and tyres.
If he had free air and had soft tyres, I believe he would be lapping 1s slower than the Ferrari.
In the first stint, Alonso was stuck behind Sainz for the first 21 laps. During this period he was 1.4s slower than Vettel. But once he got past Sainz, he was only 0.1s off Vettel (only 3 laps, but still - this was right before the VSC). And then obviously Alonso was defending against Verstappen, so he was much slower than he should have been. He lapped only 0.87s slower than Vettel after the safety car.
And if you are going to say, but Alonso was 28 seconds behind Vettel and their were only 26 laps after the safety car, so he was lapping over a second slower, that reasoning is absolutely flawed.
It's simple, the lead car is always at an advantage during starts, because they can make up a huge chunk of time in the first lap alone. To put this into perspective, Alonso was already 5s behind Vettel after the 1st lap after the safety car restart. So in reality he only lost 22 seconds to Vettel in 25 laps, and he was defending Verstappen the entire time.
I excluded Baku race pace because Alonso had damage, so we don't know his true pace.
All these examples show McLaren has extremely strong race pace, within 1s of Ferrari, but because of their low quali position, it's significantly compromised.
If they really get a .3s gain over others in Spain, they should already be within 0.5s of the Ferrari in race pace, enough for Alonso to do his thing.