Has Toyota Returned to the right path

[gcdugas]

As we know Jarno Trulli had been touting their progress in pre-season testing, and now we see results on merit and not attrition or luck. Jarno even says that it could be like 2005 when they regularly visited the podium. Now they have a podium on merit. Even Glock made Q3 on several occasions.

Now that the dead weight of Ralf is gone, could Toyota start to be contenders like BMW? If you remember, in 2005 they finished second twice in the first few races and had more than a few podiums. The trouble was that Jarno was trouncing Ralfie-pooh who was the big bux star. Some of this was due to the troubles Ferrari had with the race distance tyre rule that year. But notably Ralf was crying and twisted the team's arm into making the "B" car suit his style. The "B" car never had the success of the early season. From then onward, the TF-106 was a turd. It seems therefore that the team suffered when they went down the path that Ralf wanted.

So the question I ask is this: Has Toyota returned to a better path now that Ralf is gone and they are free to pursue their initial design philosophy? And by inference Jarno's development abilities are also up for re-evaluation.

[flynfrog]

I think the car is getting better but there podium last weekend was mostly do due an excellent strategy not so much a fast car

[Belatti]

No.

It´s just that this year, after Ferrari, Mclaren and BMW (in that order) the midpack is very very close.

With Hamilton at the back, Alonso with a wrong strategy, the Bimmers and Williams with lack of speed maybe because an odd track (asphalt) there are only the redbulls that are matched to the Toyots, the Toros a bit slower and then there is noone else. Because who would count the Hondas and FIs, right?

[gcdugas]

No.

It´s just that this year, after Ferrari, Mclaren and BMW (in that order) the midpack is very very close.

With Hamilton at the back, Alonso with a wrong strategy, the Bimmers and Williams with lack of speed maybe because an odd track (asphalt) there are only the redbulls that are matched to the Toyots, the Toros a bit slower and then there is noone else. Because who would count the Hondas and FIs, right?

I know the particulars of last week in France but they have had both cars into Q3 very often and Jarno, who we know is an excellent qualifier, is almost always into Q3. The Tf-106 or TF-107 (cars built after the Ralf philosophy) would rarely get that far up the grid. My question is more of a general trend question. Has Toyota found or returned to a better path? And by extension, could we expect another improvement next year?

[zac510]

One race isn't going to make a year..

[nae]

Has Toyota Returned to the right path

no but they are certainly on the right track

[donskar]

They have a long way to go.

I think both Toyota and Honda are hamstrung by the Japanese management philosophy: no single individual gets all the blame or the credit or the authority. The money is certainly there, but they lack (I think) the single focal point or driving force.

As an example, even Ross Brawn has not made any visible difference in Honda this year. Maybe next year? I would not be surprised to see Brawn leave Honda by mid season next year.

[checkered]

So the question I ask is this: Has Toyota returned to a better path now that Ralf is gone and they are free to pursue their initial design philosophy? And by inference Jarno's development abilities are also up for re-evaluation.

As a sort of an

off-the-cuff analysis I'd say that Toyota is in a strong position. I'm apprehensive of pinning blame on Ralf, but certainly Trulli seems all fired up and liberated by the current situation - almost as he has never before been. Timo Glock, he has said, has a very similar driving style to him. The team might be in a strong position in continuing with the evolution of their car 'til the end of this season, Toyota having vast applicable "energy recovery" resources at place elsewhere and the willingness to spend on both exercises rather freely. So perhaps it's partly a "better path", partly the right time for Toyota's established approach.

Honda will be pursuing assets aggressively under Brawn, be it drivers or sponsors and some teams will not take kindly to such attempts. Look for Alonso or Heidfeld partnering Button before long, as well as a host of strategically chosen technology partners some of which are in short supply. Don't forget that despite Super Aguri, there have been reports of yet another Honda customer team emerging very soon; a new one (even American), or perhaps one of the Ferrari customers could make a switch. On this front all bets are off for 2009. But for now, Toyota will enjoy free reign over the Japanese F1 rivalry.

[vasia]

Yes Toyota has certainly returned to the right track. As a side note, I find it funny everytime I see someone mention that Toyota has spent so much and accomplished so little. Toyota is the only team in over 15 years to have started from scratch, from absolutely nothing. I have a lot of respect for Toyota because of that. Regardless of what BMW has achieved, all BMW really did was buy Sauber. BMW never created a team from scratch here. Sauber already had some experienced people, and BMW added their own experienced personnel as well as tons of resources. Considering Toyota has relied on no other teams, they've accomplished quite a bit. Starting from scratch, Toyota had no choice other than spend huge amounts of money to make a big F1 operation from nothing.

2005 was a good season for Toyota because it took them a few years to get to grips with the Michelin tires, but in 2005 they had a good understanding. Also in 2005 engine regulations were still very open and Toyota had one of the strongest V10 engines on the grid that year. The problems occured as mentioned with the B car, and trying to suit it to Ralf's strange driving style. It made it harder for Jarno to drive, combined with Ralf being inconsistent. Another mistake was hiring Mike Gascoyne, as he made some bad decisions for the 2006 car, which affected the 2007 car, and to some degree still haunt this year's 2008 car. When the switch was made to V8 engines in 2006, Gascoyne ordered the engine department to make the lightest V8 on the grid. The cylinder walls were made thinner, and the cylinder block itself was made thinner as well. Toyota suffered reliability problems with their 2006 and 2007 cars, and part of the reason was this engine. Also the fragile nature of the V8 meant it was not one of the strongest engines on the grid. Yes Gascoyne did design the 2005 car, but once again the good results of 2005 were because of the strong engine, and also because of good understanding of the Michelin tires. Gascoyne actually had more control over the 2006 car, thus his orders on making a light V8.

Even now with the TF108, the Toyota V8 in there is one of the weaker V8 engines on the grid, although since 2006 Toyota has worked very hard and made many improvements to improve the reliability of the engine. It's now reliable, but still a bit weak on power, and because of the engine freeze Toyota cannot modify the design. 2006 and 2007 were also bad years due to the switch Toyota made to Bridgestone tires, and their inexperience with these tires.

Toyota rightfully dumped Gascoyne in 2006 and replaced him with Vasselon. Toyota also restructured the team to make communication more effective and to make the team more efficient. Last year the team principal was replaced from Tomita to Yamashina.

Now Toyota is getting to grips with the Bridgestone tires, last year they hired Mark Gillan to oversee aerodynamics, and as well they hired Frank Dernie. Mark Gillan is a very capable aerodynamicist, and Frank Dernie is one of the most experienced people in F1. Dernie since last year has been a consultant to the team, and it has been revealed he will work very closely with the team to help develop the 2009 car.

The TF108 is mainly a Vasselon design with some of Gillan's input as well as Trulli's input. The 2009 car will be a Vasselon/Gillan/Dernie design with input from both Trulli and Glock to make sure the car will suit their driving styles. The 2009 car should also have some input from Toyota technical people regarding the KERS system.

Looking at pure speed and not race results, Toyota has the 4th fastest car after Ferari, McLaren, and BMW. Next year Toyota needs to have a car good enough to be regularly competing for podiums and possible victories. Anything less will be a dissapointment. Hopefully with Dernie making a lot of big decisions about the 2009 car it will turn out good.

[scarbs]

Toyota have disappointed this year, their highlights have been Malaysia and France. In general the teams pace has been well below expectations, this is partly due to Glock not hooking his season together, but must be largely the cars pace. Comparing fastest race laps for all cars over the season so far (a reference used by all team) Its clear Trulli has struggled on pure race pace, his times are generally 1-2% slower than the fastest race lap time. He is ranked tenth, with the big three teams and Webber, Alonso and Rosberg ahead of him (and in that order..!). As team Toyota on fastest race lap times are eighth, lagged only by Toro Rosso and Force India.

Despite these gloomy stats, I would say Toyota are moving the right direction. Both in terms of team structure and design. The real test will be how their 2009 design fares, will it be from the off or will it take another half season of development to make an impact.

As for Frances form, I’d put that down to the track and not the teams general upturn in pace. France demands a tractable power unit and doesn’t penalise cars that don’t like bumps.

[gcdugas]

Yes Toyota has certainly returned to the right track....

The problems occured as mentioned with the B car, and trying to suit it to Ralf's strange driving style. It made it harder for Jarno to drive, combined with Ralf being inconsistent....

Another mistake was hiring Mike Gascoyne, as he made some bad decisions for the 2006 car, which affected the 2007 car, and to some degree still haunt this year's 2008 car. When the switch was made to V8 engines in 2006, Gascoyne ordered the engine department to make the lightest V8 on the grid....

Now Toyota is getting to grips with the Bridgestone tires, last year they hired Mark Gillan to oversee aerodynamics, and as well they hired Frank Dernie. Mark Gillan is a very capable aerodynamicist, and Frank Dernie is one of the most experienced people in F1. Dernie since last year has been a consultant to the team, and it has been revealed he will work very closely with the team to help develop the 2009 car....

Looking at pure speed and not race results, Toyota has the 4th fastest car after Ferari, McLaren, and BMW. Next year Toyota needs to have a car good enough to be regularly competing for podiums and possible victories.

OK, I sense that my question is getting answered in the context it was asked. Some comments about the timing of Ralf's input and their decline are addressed. Additionally other factors are mentioned. I think Toyota and Williams (before they joined forces) were the two teams that jumped to B'stone in 2006 when Renault and Mac were winning everything still on Michelins which probably added 3/10s advantage that year. The expected pay off for the early jump never happened in 2007 as only Renault had any troubles with the transition to the spec tyre.

Why build a extra light V8 when the regs were so tightly written that the overall mass as well as CG are spec'd at 95 Kg. and 165 CM above reference plane. Certainly this was known to Gascoyne so I wonder about the account you render. (BTW, I am against tight regs on principle.)

Gillan and Dernie are both great! Dernie especially as he took the 2003 Williams mid season and tweaked it into a title contender which was the favorite until the bogus Michelingate ruling pre-Monza as well as the bogus DQ for Montoya at Indy. Dernie is old school and very intuitive, strong on the basics of mechanical grip, suspension and steering angles etc. So things are looking good for the future even though 2009 is a lottery with the new rules.

Do you really think that the Toyota is the 4th fastest car? I know it fashionable to worship Newey, something I always wondered about as Byrne is much better. Although I certainly don't want to be seen as a Newey sycophant, the RB4 is a tidy little car. I think they are 4th fastest, then Toyota 5th. And, if one wants to take a swipe at Newey, it could be said that they are finishing races this year because of the new gearbox rules requiring stoutness and durability. Left to his own, Newey can't resist making things too fragile and unreliable. How many retirements last year were to drivetrain issues? Having said that, the RB4 is a swift car being driven by half a team (DC to the glue factory please). And no matter what, the Red Bull team is certainly in far better shape under Mateschitz than it has ever been in its entire history under Stewart/Ford/Jaguar (Herbert's 1999 victory notwithstanding).

But back to Toyota, and drawing an interesting contrast to the Red Bull team, do you think that Toyota are possibly shedding some of their corporate committee management style to a more autonomous individual style? I know Dernie and Gillan that you mentioned are both self styled types who need to be freed to pursue their instincts. Just look at Red Bull once the Ford corporate hacks were excised.

[gcdugas]

Toyota have disappointed this year, their highlights have been Malaysia and France. In general the teams pace has been well below expectations, this is partly due to Glock not hooking his season together, but must be largely the cars pace. Comparing fastest race laps for all cars over the season so far (a reference used by all team) Its clear Trulli has struggled on pure race pace, his times are generally 1-2% slower than the fastest race lap time. He is ranked tenth, with the big three teams and Webber, Alonso and Rosberg ahead of him (and in that order..!). As team Toyota on fastest race lap times are eighth, lagged only by Toro Rosso and Force India.

I like the fastest lap stat but many times the fastest lap is hindered by being behind a slower car when your car is optimal. Getting into Q3 is a good indicator because everything is optimal and there is much less hindering. Do you think that the Toyota is slower than the Honda as your post suggests?

On a separate subject, I rate the fastest qualifiers (independent of equipment) as Trulli, Alonzo, Massa, Kimi, Kubica, Nico, Webber, Lewis, Vettel, Kov, Fisi, Button, Rubens, Nick, Glock, Nakajima, Sutil, Bourdais, DC, Piquet.

Disclaimer: I am not Jarno's greatest fan either as this might suggest. I have a soft spot for poor Nick who is having his troubles but is still underrated, quietly racing with heavy fuel and being gentle on his equipment and staying out of crashes but who makes some of the most daring passes out there. He always finished much higher than he starts and is great with strategy. Now if he were only better at quali and had a tad more hunger....

[scarbs]

I agree Q3 is a more obvious option, but not without its problems, some teams struggle to get the car to work in q, some drivers struggle to get their best lap in. Not to mention the differing tyre choices and the top drivers not giving it all in Q3. The teams use race laps as the larger sample of laps makes the results a little more balanced.

For different reasons, I also do Q3 analysis, here’s a Toyota summary

Both drivers are in the top ten of ‘% off of the fastest Q3 time’, Trulli well known as a good ‘one lap’ driver is fifth at typically 0.75% off, while Glock is also an impressive seventh at 0.94%. Trulli only failed to get into Q3 once (Canada) while Glock has only made twice.
Comparing their Q1 to their Q3 lap, Its clear Trulli is heavily fuelled, at typically 1.4s slower, he has twice the difference to the average, more even than the usually heavily fuelled Heidfeld and Kovalainen.


Scarbs...

[Belatti]

I just can´t understand Honda and Toyota.
How can they be so sleepy, years go by and no big changes are made...
Still trying luck with the same drivers that, may be good but proven not enough in developing a winner.
What do they think, that Trulli and Button will suddenly start to win races?

The same concept may be applied to Red Bull and Coulthard, not sure if Webber too, as he seems fast.

Have Toyota and Honda a good driver development program? As far as I see, only Renualt, BMW and McLaren have enjoyed the benefits of such till now.

All I can conclude is after all, cars are made and runned by men, not money.

[scarbs]

Isn’t the problem with the machinery though and not the driver? No doubt Button and Trulli could easily start to perform at a higher level given the machinery. It seems the weak link in both these teams is the management mentality. The resources, budgets and individual people are more than up to the job.

The question is do they want to keep hammering at F1 like a it’s a normal corporate business, or treat as the enigma it is?