With every year more and more people talking about 'how to have more overtakes on F1', with no solution at all seeming to work, here's why I think overtaking may actually never be a thing again on F1.
1. Faster cars qualify higher: If my car is faster than the other, I'm probably gonna qualify higher, so how is there gonna be any overtaking if the faster cars are aready starting in front?
2. Precision and Consistency: F1 gets more and more consistent every day, with both the cars' manufacturing being precise to a nanometer as well as the drivers being incredibly consistent. So there's no reason for a car that's 5 tenths faster than the other to suddenly become 5 tenths slower, therefore there's one less logic reason for a car that's behind passing a car in front. Back in the day engineers and drivers had a vague idea of how much their engines and gearboxes would last, so sometimes a driver would push less than he could, or more, which led to breakdowns. Apart from some engines blowing today, that doesn't usually happen anymore, and even when it does, I don't feel any excitement from seeing an engine blowing.
Also, teams today have a pretty good idea of the ideal pace for the driver to go as fast as possible from start to finish, so there's no reason for a faster car to suddenly become slower.
3. Strategies: Everyone qualifies on low fuel and gets whatever fuel load they want for the race. Also with the more durable tyres, a 1 stop is pretty much always the way to go. With that in mind, strategy is currently not a factor for a faster car to suddenly become slower. When that does happen, we see an amazing show like the Red Bulls gave us at China, but it rarely does happen.
4. Aerodynamics: Everyone blames F1's complicated and sensitive aerodynamics for the lack of overtakes, and that is a part of the problem. But if you watch this video
you'll see that the speed with which a car drags the air leaves the car behind less relative speed for its aerodynamics to work, so no matter how simple the aero is, driving in the wake will always be a problem. Just watch the 2009 season: Aerodynamics were way simpler than today, and even so overtaking wasn't considerably better.
Perhaps that could improve with a bigger focus on mechanical grip and ground effect, but the wake of the car in front will always be an issue for cars so aero dependant as F1 cars.
Also: Overtaking in F1 is actually really easy.
Look at how easily Ricciardo was able to overtake on newer tyres in China, or how fast Hamilton made up positions at Bahrain, so fast in fact that after that Grand Prix some were asking if overtaking was too easy. The fact of the matter is: if the car behind is faster, overtaking in Formula One is surprisingly simple. The big problem is that there's no logical reason for a faster car to usually be behind a slower one.
There you have it guys. It may seem a little pessimistic, but every time I think about it, I see no good reason for overtaking to become a common thing in F1, no matter how many DRS zones, no matter how they change the aerodynamics. Leave your opinions down below (I sounded like a youtuber now, sorry).