Jolle wrote: ↑
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:44 pm
NathanOlder wrote: ↑
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:20 pm
Phil wrote: ↑
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:00 pm
Explain Kimi then. The law of averages isnt a “law” anyway.
Oh I know. I've always said Seb gets more than his fair share of luck and good fortune. But I get struck down by the 'it averages itself out over a season' brigade.
So I am using that theory to jinx Seb and make him break down in the next 6 races. If I'm right, then Vettel will score no points at some point, if I'm wrong, we can put the whole 'evens itself out' rubbish to bed. Either way I'm happy
If you look at the problem mathematically, and you take a period of 50 races for instance, Hamilton broke down twice, which makes his chance of retirement 4% per race. Vettel broke down once, which makes his chance per race of a DNF because of a mechanical reason 2%.
And if you look at collisions and self inflicted harm, Vettel crashed out 4 times during those races giving him an 8% chance of a DNF per race and Hamilton none (his last DNF because of a non car failure was more then 50 races ago)
This makes a DNF for Vettel a chance of 10% per race and Hamiltons chance 4%. Combining all those and the number or races gives Vettel a chance for a DNF of 60% and Hamilton of 24%
Assuming a binomial distribution of retirements, their respective chances of X DNFs would be as follows:
0 - Vettel at 53.14% - Hamilton at 78.28%
1 - Vettel at 35.43% - Hamilton at 19.57%
2 - Vettel at 9.84% - Hamilton at 2.04%
3+ - Vettel at 1.59% - Hamilton at 0.12%
Vettel's expected number of DNFs is 0.6, Hamilton's being 0.24. It is, however, incorrect to state that Vettel's chance of a DNF during the last 6 races is 60% - it's actually 46.86% using your DNF rate, or 1 - 0.5314; Hamilton's is 21.72%, or 1 - 0.7828.