2019 performance speculation

Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
godlameroso
337
User avatar
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2010 8:27 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by godlameroso » Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:57 pm

1st half of season:
Interchangeable between
1.Ferrari
2.Mercedes
With Mercedes having a nice gap midway through the season.

On their own again
3.Red Bull

Race pace will be better for McLaren, but the Renault will outqualify them repeatedly, again. This allows McLaren to be outqualified by other teams despite having a stronger car.
4.Renault
5.McLaren

The bottom 5 will be interchangeable and will be fighting for points.
6.Williams
7.Sauber
8.Haas
9.TR
10.Racing point

2nd Half
Interchangeable
1.McLaren
2.Red Bull
3.Ferrari

Slight gap
4.Renault
5.Mercedes

Interchangeable
6-10
The height of cultivation is really nothing special. It is merely simplicity; the ability to express the utmost with the minimum. Mr.Lee

ME4ME
162
User avatar
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:37 pm

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by ME4ME » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:34 pm

mclaren111 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:33 am
GoranF1 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:47 pm
ME4ME wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:34 pm
With all these lists being posted, can anyone -and with all due respect to the team- write down a solid argument for why Williams would beat another team and not be last in 2019?
Because last year they had the worst driver lineup in history, this year a very good one, and because this will be first 100% Paddy Lowe car.

Paddy Lowe will want to build a "spaceship" again (like Mclaren days)... And fail miserably... Don't get you're hopes up.
I don't buy the Paddy Lowe argument either. In fact I don't generally think its very intelligent to either blame or credit a single person, being it high ranked or not, within a huge organization on the success or the lack thereof.

Anyway, drivers: I do think George Russel is a star in the making. I think he is the real deal, much more so than Norris. But he'll need some time to get up to speed obviously. Kubica I think is overrated but time will tell. Overall I dont think Williams has a stronger driver lineup than any other team, besides possibly Toro Rosso.

What will kill Williams' chances this season:
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/real ... %5B0%5D=13

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/mcla ... d/4322309/

So a massive reduction of income and rival teams getting boosted through partnerships. Even if Williams would do a good job with what they have, I don't see them having the resources and especially time to get themselfs out of the hole that they dug last year.

GoranF1
177
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:53 am
Location: Zagreb,Croatia

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by GoranF1 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:54 pm

ME4ME wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:34 pm
mclaren111 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:33 am
GoranF1 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:47 pm


Because last year they had the worst driver lineup in history, this year a very good one, and because this will be first 100% Paddy Lowe car.

Paddy Lowe will want to build a "spaceship" again (like Mclaren days)... And fail miserably... Don't get you're hopes up.
I don't buy the Paddy Lowe argument either. In fact I don't generally think its very intelligent to either blame or credit a single person, being it high ranked or not, within a huge organization on the success or the lack thereof.

Anyway, drivers: I do think George Russel is a star in the making. I think he is the real deal, much more so than Norris. But he'll need some time to get up to speed obviously. Kubica I think is overrated but time will tell. Overall I dont think Williams has a stronger driver lineup than any other team, besides possibly Toro Rosso.

What will kill Williams' chances this season:
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/real ... %5B0%5D=13

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/mcla ... d/4322309/

So a massive reduction of income and rival teams getting boosted through partnerships. Even if Williams would do a good job with what they have, I don't see them having the resources and especially time to get themselfs out of the hole that they dug last year.
If you take Kubica injury aside, why would you think he's overrated?
Are you very young?
"I have no idols. I admire work, dedication & competence."

ME4ME
162
User avatar
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:37 pm

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by ME4ME » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:11 pm

GoranF1 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:54 pm
If you take Kubica injury aside, why would you think he's overrated?
Are you very young?
I think it's quite telling that both Renault and Williams thoroughly tested him and both came to the conclusion that he wasn't their strongest option. Until of course Williams lost the majority of their backing and FOM income for 2019 and Kubica found increased financial backing from his Polish sponsor.

marmer
33
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:48 am

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by marmer » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:48 am

ME4ME wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:11 pm
GoranF1 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:54 pm
If you take Kubica injury aside, why would you think he's overrated?
Are you very young?
I think it's quite telling that both Renault and Williams thoroughly tested him and both came to the conclusion that he wasn't their strongest option. Until of course Williams lost the majority of their backing and FOM income for 2019 and Kubica found increased financial backing from his Polish sponsor.
i suspect renault didn't think they would get carlos so soon to replace palmer. so you can understand them picking him instead of robert. Williams just saw the cash with sirgi and publically just use the excuse of a slightly less than imprissive end of season test although even thats debatable as to if robert was mainly on longer runs and had less time in the car building up to the test.

mclaren111
169
Joined: Sun Apr 06, 2014 9:49 am
Location: Shithole - South Africa

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by mclaren111 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:45 am

Race pace will be better for McLaren, but the Renault will outqualify them repeatedly, again. This allows McLaren to be outqualified by other teams despite having a stronger car.
4.Renault
5.McLaren

The bottom 5 will be interchangeable and will be fighting for points.
6.Williams
7.Sauber
8.Haas
9.TR
10.Racing point

2nd Half
Interchangeable
1.McLaren
2.Red Bull
3.Ferrari


Slight gap
4.Renault
5.Mercedes

Interchangeable
6-10[/quote]


I like you're thinking & optimism for 2nd Half... [-o< [-o<

GPR -A
90
User avatar
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:08 pm

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by GPR -A » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:13 am

Let me deduce with some hypothetical numbers (all qualifying).
godlameroso wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:57 pm
1st half of season:
Interchangeable between
1.Ferrari
2.Mercedes +0.2
With Mercedes having a nice gap midway through the season.

On their own again
3.Red Bull +0.5

Race pace will be better for McLaren, but the Renault will outqualify them repeatedly, again. This allows McLaren to be outqualified by other teams despite having a stronger car.
4.Renault +0.8
5.McLaren +1.0
godlameroso wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:57 pm
2nd Half
Interchangeable
1.McLaren
2.Red Bull +0.2
3.Ferrari +0.3

Slight gap
4.Renault +0.6
5.Mercedes +0.8
So you are saying,
1. McLaren would close the gap of around a second to Ferrari and then open over a quarter of second gap, assuming Ferrari doesn't make any progress.
2. Red Bull closes half a second gap to Ferrari and then open a tenth of gap to them (almost evens).
5. Mercedes goes from being around 2 tenths down on Ferrari to over half a second down on them AND close to a second behind McLaren.

McLaren makes leaps and bounds of progress.
Red Bull makes surprising progress.
Ferrari doesn't make any progress.
Mercedes goes backwards.

That seems entirely plausible. Give me the address please. Let me buy some too.

bauc
66
User avatar
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 9:03 am
Location: Skopje, Macedonia

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by bauc » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:34 am

Unfortunately, I see another season dominated by Mercedes, but for the sports sake I hope I'm wrong.

Most interesting will be the battle between Renault, Haas, FI, Mclaren & Sauber for the 4-5-6 spot in the constructors, I'm afraid Williams will hit another all time low and STR will just be Honda's development test bench with a few points here and there.
Формула 1 на Македонски - The first ever Macedonian Formula 1 YouTube channel
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJkjCv ... 6rVRgKASwg

turbof1
Moderator
User avatar
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 8:36 pm
Location: MountDoom CFD Matrix

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by turbof1 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:47 am

I see a bit of an issue for Mercedes. They had conceptionally wise the same front wing since 2014/2015. That was a front wing they understood to the fibre. Since that's now scratched, they might end up with a front wing they don't understand quite as good, or hit correlation issues. Other teams who have been throwing concepts around a few times in the past few years might have more flexibility in that regard.
#AeroFrodo

Capharol
41
User avatar
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:06 pm

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Capharol » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:06 am

GPR -A wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:52 pm


There are too many things to consider before you conclude that the RB14 rear elements are actually going to help TR next year.
and there are too many things to consider before you conclude that it WON'T work aswell.
RB has have the fastest car, chassis-wise, in the last few years, TR did made there own parts and see where they landet.

So i guess it's pretty sure to say the parts that TR gets from RB will help them way more as they did design there own parts
Strive for continuous improvement, instead of perfection.
"Most people seem to turn off their brain when they turn on the computer and log in to social media."

turbof1
Moderator
User avatar
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 8:36 pm
Location: MountDoom CFD Matrix

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by turbof1 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:13 am

Capharol wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:06 am
GPR -A wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:52 pm


There are too many things to consider before you conclude that the RB14 rear elements are actually going to help TR next year.
and there are too many things to consider before you conclude that it WON'T work aswell.
RB has have the fastest car, chassis-wise, in the last few years, TR did made there own parts and see where they landet.

So i guess it's pretty sure to say the parts that TR gets from RB will help them way more as they did design there own parts
Yes, but those parts are limited. There are rules in place to prevent getting the whole IP. Also, red bull did miss the target at times. For instance, in 2017 they got the bargeboards wrong at the beginning of the season. In 2014 they had a very good chassis, but mercedes had the better one. In 2015, Red Bull did get their aero wrong.

Overall, I do agree Red Bull generally has a very good chassis. They had the best one last year certainly (although one can say they also compromised on reliability). But, that's not a guarantee they will coming season. There's no real guarantee for that any team for sure, and Red Bull also can get it wrong. On top of that, we get an aero reset on the front so that will limit parts transfer from RBR to TR further.
#AeroFrodo

NathanOlder
116
User avatar
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:05 am
Location: Kent

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by NathanOlder » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:28 am

turbof1 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:47 am
I see a bit of an issue for Mercedes. They had conceptionally wise the same front wing since 2014/2015. That was a front wing they understood to the fibre. Since that's now scratched, they might end up with a front wing they don't understand quite as good, or hit correlation issues. Other teams who have been throwing concepts around a few times in the past few years might have more flexibility in that regard.
Or Mercedes understood it so well, they knew they had the best performing FW, others spent years messing around trying to find a sweetspot but never did. Mercedes could start 2019 with the best front end.

Not changing much for 5yrs can be seen both ways.
GoLandoGo
Lewis v2.0

Does anyone play F1 2019 on Ps4, Now setting up a league at

https://rapidpixelracing.com

Capharol
41
User avatar
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:06 pm

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Capharol » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:30 am

turbof1 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:13 am
Yes, but those parts are limited. There are rules in place to prevent getting the whole IP. Also, red bull did miss the target at times. For instance, in 2017 they got the bargeboards wrong at the beginning of the season. In 2014 they had a very good chassis, but mercedes had the better one. In 2015, Red Bull did get their aero wrong.

Overall, I do agree Red Bull generally has a very good chassis. They had the best one last year certainly (although one can say they also compromised on reliability). But, that's not a guarantee they will coming season. There's no real guarantee for that any team for sure, and Red Bull also can get it wrong. On top of that, we get an aero reset on the front so that will limit parts transfer from RBR to TR further.
agreed on the limited parts, agreed on the case that RB, not always got there ducks on a row at the beginning of a season(this was because Newey didn't helped from the beginning, and jumped in after Barcelona), but they always ended up with a top chassis at the 2nd part of the season.

of course they can make mistakes with the 2019 regulation, but Ferrari, Mercedes, Sauber, McLaren could do that aswell
Strive for continuous improvement, instead of perfection.
"Most people seem to turn off their brain when they turn on the computer and log in to social media."

turbof1
Moderator
User avatar
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 8:36 pm
Location: MountDoom CFD Matrix

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by turbof1 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:38 am

NathanOlder wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:28 am
turbof1 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:47 am
I see a bit of an issue for Mercedes. They had conceptionally wise the same front wing since 2014/2015. That was a front wing they understood to the fibre. Since that's now scratched, they might end up with a front wing they don't understand quite as good, or hit correlation issues. Other teams who have been throwing concepts around a few times in the past few years might have more flexibility in that regard.
Or Mercedes understood it so well, they knew they had the best performing FW, others spent years messing around trying to find a sweetspot but never did. Mercedes could start 2019 with the best front end.

Not changing much for 5yrs can be seen both ways.
I can't judge the wing performance. Clearly it worked for them, and others changed more clearly because they weren't happy with the performance. That's neither the point. Dealing with a wholesome change can be more easy for teams having gone through changes in the recent past, being a bit more flexible.

Of course, neither is a guarantee for getting things right or wrong.
#AeroFrodo

Juzh
395
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 7:45 am

Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Juzh » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:40 pm

What about laptimes? We've heard drivers saying downforce will be more of less equal, but the front wing is getting a serious nerf even with the extra width. Outwashing potential is severely limited. I predict at least 1s slower cars on average during quali. We don't know what pirelli will bring to the table, but from their ramblings late last year I expect them to go more conservative for 2019, kinda like 2017 where most tires could go race distance easily. That would probably make race pace on par with 2018, also helped by extra fuel available.