motobaleno wrote: ↑21 Feb 2019, 16:04
BRO, you write this NOW, this is simply POST-LOGIC after 2018 season, It is a human tendence to think that what you think NOW was so logic and evident also ONE YEAR AGO.
Previous year performance, plus lack of rule changes plus funding model. Tell me, are you constantly surprised that the Red Bull has excellent aero? Or do you think there's a link between their aero strength versus consistent design philosophy, Newey and their large budget? I suspect the latter, but maybe that's just confirmation bias?
motobaleno wrote: ↑21 Feb 2019, 16:04
I was in barcellona in 2018 and I was on the forum and the common sense was far from what you say now...ON THE AVERAGE people thought that mercedes was far ahead.
On the average, people are not astute observers of a highly technical pursuit. If you ever need to go in for brain surgery, I would recommend not nipping into your local supermarket and taking the average view of where the incisions should be made.
Phil wrote: ↑21 Feb 2019, 16:15
If you think testing is irrelevant and you barely have any interest in it, what are you doing in this very thread?
Did I say testing is irrelevant?
Wynters wrote: ↑21 Feb 2019, 15:55
I've barely any interest in testing lap times and I haven't even looked at the long runs for 2019
Hmm, looks like I was specific about lap times. Weird.
I think there's more to testing than just the timing screens but you make it very clear that I'm wrong to hold that view.
Speculation and educated guesswork can, indeed, be an engaging intellectual pursuit. But there is a significant proportion of posters who are cluttering the thread with spurious rubbish and, in turn, creating a prevailing view that is almost entirely baseless. People are free to post what they want but I felt it might be useful to remind people that the testing lap times (particularly at the first test) and the reality of relative performance at Melbourne and beyond are often different and their are a plethora of crucial factors that impact those times that are not easily visible to casual observers.I guess I should apologise for even questioning the approach.
Perhaps if people showed their working (e.g. Lap time is 'W', fuel load is a minimum of 'X' which means a minimum lap time impact of 'Y' (and an acknowledgement that later laps could include fuel saving so a static time penalty for fuel per lap is perhaps inaccurate), and on tyre compound 'Z' (with calculations for suspected relative performance steps between compounds and projected tyre wear for the point in the stint that the time was set and, if possible, confirmation of overall life expenditure of the tyres as they might be on an old set), and then creating a 'real' lap time (with a likely bellcurve-style range) then I'd have a bit more faith. But that's not what the overwhelming majority of this thread actually seems to be interested in and the more chaff that accrues, the less likely a different, more rigorous approach will be encouraged.
2007 - Beats 2005 & 2006 WDC Alonso. 1-0
2008-09 - Beats Kovalainen. 2-0
2010-12 - Beats 2009 WDC Button. 2-1
2013-16 - Beats 2016 WDC Rosberg. 3-1
2017-21 - Beats Bottas. 5-0
2022-24 - Loses to Russell. 1-2 (but outscores him)
2025-?? - Leclerc. TBC
Just the car???