2019 Australian Grand Prix - Melbourne, March 15-17

[Bill_Kar]

or maybe
RB
Alfa
Ferrari
Merc

who can really tell, it is all guessing .....for now
Tomorrow we will see who is on top and who loses, and even then, Australia is a specific track and in China it could be different at all

Of course we can't tell for sure, im just asking his guess.

Well to answer it partially..... Renault ain't infront of RB

I agree with you. Come Sunday, top 3 will be intact. I think though the gap from best F1.5 to worse top 3 will be much less.

[GPR-A]

There is way more interesting things to quote out of the AMuS article. This one for example:

Die Frage, ob Mercedes in Barcelona nur geblufft hat oder Ferrari am Freitag in Melbourne unter Wert geschlagen wurde, ist eigentlich schnell beantwortet. Der Abstand von Mercedes zur Spitze des Mittelfeldes ist mit 0,9 Sekunden gleich geblieben. Ferrari und Red Bull dagegen hatten in Melbourne nur ein Zehntel Luft. Also müssen sie Probleme gehabt haben.

In other words, the pre-season testing showed that the top teams had a gap to the midfield of about 0.9s. This is still accurate, given Mercedes is 0.9s to a second ahead of the midfield. The only inconsistency with expectations is that Ferrari is barely ahead of the midfield, so it's safe to assume it was simply Ferrari who were struggling with set-up and not that Mercedes are simply way ahead of everyone because they are faster.

That is a very good theory, assuming that, the pace difference we saw in Winter Testing was accurate AND assuming that Mercedes sailed smooth in both practices without any issues, unless the author did not watch the twitchy Mercedes on track! Not to mention, both tracks are alike in terms of what they demand from cars and the length of it AND all cars (except for Ferrari) are exactly performing the same on these tyres, regardless of track temperatures, wind speeds and humidity at both tracks.

[Fulcrum]

Having had a look at the long-run data, my conclusions are as follows.

The only categorically undeniable piece of evidence in the data is that Williams are at least 1 second per lap slower than the next slowest team, more likely 1.5 seconds a lap slower. I predict they will be lapped by the leaders twice if there are no safety cars, and their pace deficit indicates they could be lapped by drivers from all other teams.

At the other end of the grid, Mercedes do have an advantage, potentially quite a big one under certain circumstances.

Ferrari were consistently slower than Mercedes, by more than 0.5 seconds per lap. Hopefully, for the sake of competition anyway, this gap lowers tomorrow and on Sunday.

Red Bull... difficult to say. Verstappen ran shorter stints than the other front runners in P2, so I don't think his laps are representative of long run pace, otherwise he would clearly be the fastest over laps conducted under race simulation conditions. Gasly was a lot slower though, and I'd expect their true pace is somewhere between the two. This would place them ahead of Ferrari.

In the true midfield, drivers will make the most difference IMO. Kvyat and Raikkonen clearly differentiated themselves from their teammates today, but any of Haas, Alfa, RP, Renault or TR could be fighting for 7th on the grid.

McLaren ran a very short program so I don't know about them, but they weren't particularly competitive either.

Ordered average lap hierarchy from combined team stints:

Mercedes
Red Bull
Ferrari
Racing Point
Alfa
Toro Rosso
Renault
Haas
McLaren
Williams

I expect this to change significantly tomorrow!

[Schuttelberg]

The hype and pre season fan feelings are just so hilarious sometimes. Ferrari have gone from an absolute dominant double title winning team to a complete hopeless lot. Mercedes have gone from 'struggling' and being half a second off to being the same boring dominant force of the last half a decade. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. As I have said numerous times, no one can be sure who's ahead but it feels like a close battle between Ferrari and Mercedes. I won't even make conclusions after Australia because it's a completely atypical circuit. The truth will probably clear after Bahrain. It's all a bit silly to comprehend gaps between teams because there are just too many variables from weekend to weekend, let alone do it over a season.

One thing I am absolutely sure about and that is that Williams is no threat to Mercedes. Toto might not feel so secure but..

[Schuttelberg]

For all those Ferrari fans who feel that the championship is over?

Mercedes fired up their first 2019 engine on Wednesday and it went pop. Racing Point, Williams and the works team therefore all ran PU's in lower modes today. If you really feel that Ferrari are more than half a second off against a non full power Mercedes, then logic is lost on you lot. The gains on a street circuit lie a lot in how much mechanical grip a driver he feels he has. It can variate between half and two seconds depending on how much grip he feels he has.. Hold the horses.

[Juzh]

some fp2 laps







leclerc on a more chill lap

[f1316]

The comments from both Vettel and Marko show both teams are struggling - and more so than Mercedes which does indeed still look a bit twitchy.

But the problems described by both Ferrari and Red Bull refer to specific corners where they have issues and therefore a general lack of confidence in what the car is going to do. If they can get on top of that - a big if but Ferrari for one showed a good ability to make overnight steps the last two years - then there’s lots of time left on the table for both.

[Fulcrum]

I based my post and opinions on lap times as evidenced . When further times become available, I'll update my opinion.

Given the track is unique, and the season young, times and positions are certainly not indicative or useful for extrapolation.

[dans79]

The big one for me is the change in tire usage, Merc looked really good, and Ferrari looked less than stellar.

[qatmix]

Those videos are interesting. The Ferrari looks much less planted on the track than the Merc, it just doesn't seem to have the front end grip. However as people are reporting that the Ferrari is eating its tyres, then that makes sense.

[NathanOlder]

I think most of the performance swing we have seen today is 100% down to the tyres. Merc have a car that gets the tyres in the right window under the current temps in Australia. In Spain it was far to cold. Merc were a good chunk behind in Spain. And a good chunk ahead in Melbourne. Most races this year will be near the Melbourne temps so it looks good for Mercedes.

Plus Mercedes may well have been running full tanks in Barcelona race sims and not just the 90ish kg required.

[WaikeCU]

I think most of the performance swing we have seen today is 100% down to the tyres. Merc have a car that gets the tyres in the right window under the current temps in Australia. Is Spain it was far to cold. Merc were a good chunk behind in Spain. And a good chunk ahead in Melbourne. Most races this year will be near the Melbourne temps so it looks good for Mercedes.

Plus Mercedes may well have been running full tanks in Barcelona race sims and not just the 90ish kg required.

Well not entirely sure about the fuel. I mean it was at some point twitchy in Barcelona, but now as well. Can't imagine how fast they will be if they have everything sorted out.

[HiddenIncome_]

Mercedes fired up their first 2019 engine on Wednesday and it went pop.

I missed this? They're down an engine already?

[ismail1991]

For all those Ferrari fans who feel that the championship is over?

Mercedes fired up their first 2019 engine on Wednesday and it went pop. Racing Point, Williams and the works team therefore all ran PU's in lower modes today. If you really feel that Ferrari are more than half a second off against a non full power Mercedes, then logic is lost on you lot. The gains on a street circuit lie a lot in how much mechanical grip a driver he feels he has. It can variate between half and two seconds depending on how much grip he feels he has.. Hold the horses.

I haven't heard of Merc's engine went pop. When did it happen and what merc did tell about it?

[falonso81]

FP3 will give more answers. A bit surprised by the Mercs pace. I hope Ferrari had an awful setup today and they can make massive gains for quali.