2019 Australian Grand Prix - Melbourne, March 15-17

[Shakeman]

Those people handing Merc the 2019 championship are the same level of stupid as those who handed Ferrari the championship after two weeks of testing.

Every single year it's the same but it's not until the completion of the 3rd race that we really see a pattern developing and who has the early pace in the car.

But even after the third race this is no guide to where we end up at the end of the season, we then enter the development race so my advice would be to sit back and enjoy the toing and froing and which ever team/drive does the best over the season will win without trying to make predictions this early or you'll just look as stupid as the hacks at Autosport.

[tinvek]

quick copy and paste of what i said on a more general forum

to be fair to people you need to look at the actual times rather than the positions,

gasly's position looks bad but there was less than 2 tenths between him and verstappen, same with sainz, without being held up he could have ended up in Q3 rather than out in Q1, even stroll was only just over 1 tenth behind sainz, yes raikonen had a good margin over giovinazzi in Q2 but that was reversed in Q1

there's really only 1 team where a driver's really looked off the pace compared to his team mate and, whilst i'm not convinced by kubica's return, we have to remember russell has a lot more recent experience of the pressures of qualifying in any racing so i'll hold judgement till somewhere around the 4th race

what ever happens at the front and at the back it's pretty clear that there are probably 12 drivers who are going to be in a very tight battle where 2 tenths can make a huge difference to how you have to approach your race.

P.S. forgot to say

i'm looking forward to mclaren saying how good their car is and how, if they had the same engine, they'd be faster than red bull

[Bill_Kar]

‪Honestly for the good of the sport Mercedes should consider adjusting their media strategy. We’re sick of this underdog story now, it’s transparent and contrived. People are mostly disappointed today, not impressed by their “miraculous turnaround”. That simple. Keep it real!

Honestly, what do you think they do? Chest thumping like Marko and Horner did? Like any world class organization, they are being diplomatic and hyping up the opposition. People who want to see Mercedes go down, buy that as a POT. Those who genuinely don't buy their words, like @shuttleberg here, would know that is BS. World of F1, especially poorly informed fans believed it and lousy media experts sold that version hard. For those who wanted to hunt for a deeper picture, there were plenty of signs.

My take is, Mercedes is extremely strong on mechanical grip and that is why we saw what we saw today. When we move to aero dominated circuits, things would bunch up between the top three.

The question is how these two will fare in high speed circuits. I mean Mercedes retains the low rake concept which in theory gives some advantage. Of course it is not the only factor.
The other big question is about temperatures. Vettel himself said that ambient temperature was a big factor in the backward slopping of Ferrari between testing and AUS GP, but FP3 and Q had a difference of 8 degrees on the surface (not sure how much in the air) and we witnessed an even more competitive Mercedes. Or maybe Ferrari becomes competitive at such low levels of temperatures as in Barcelona? I find it difficult to believe such thing.

[MtthsMlw]

[Fulcrum]

A tongue in cheek winners and losers after qualifying.

Hamilton: Winning like Charlie Sheen.
Bottas: Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.

Vettel: Round 1 to you.
Leclerc: Kimi number two?

Verstappen: To the max.
Gasly: Ghastly, but not his fault.

Grosjean: I watched the Netflix documentary and my children are embarrassed to call me father, I must restore my honour.
Magnussen: Plenty of cars in front and behind to barge off the road.

Norris: Sim racing for the win.
Sainz: Kubica is off the Christmas card list.

Raikkonen: It could have been better and its never easy, but we'll see how it goes.
Giovinazzi: Getting smashed by a 39 year old won't be a good addition to your CV.

Perez: Daddy's money can't buy talent, confirmed.
Stroll: see above.

Hulkenberg: Renault are paying Ricciardo how much? Can I have a raise please?
Ricciardo: Damage control mode, engaged. And... Smile!

Albon: Just don't bin it tomorrow.
Kvyat: Have you heard? The 8th season of Game of Thrones starts soon.

Russell: Will not be driving for Williams next year.
Kubica: This is not Mario Kart, if you hit the wall you do not get a power-up.

[LM10]

Max having to lift at turn 12 suggests he's not very confident with the new car. RB didn't even lift in 2017, let alone 2018. But of cause that could be partily because Honda gives them more speed. But either way, that's not a good sign for RB and its chassis.

Last year rb14 minimum speed trough T11-12 was 261, this year 254. It could be they really are running less DF than usual, would make sense with them being fast on the straights.

That's a reasonable explanation. I hope it's true. The last thing you want to see if Mercedes donimates at a RB-friendly circuit lol

I'm not sure this track can be called RB-friendly. In past few years Redbull has been nowhere on this track. For some reason, Mercedes has always been fast in Melbourne. Also in 2017 when they were behind Ferrari and Redbull in terms of mechanical grip. In 2017 Vettel was as fast as Bottas in Melbourne, but Hamilton was 2.5 tenths faster, which is the Hamilton factor on this track (puts the amazing lap of Bottas today more into perspective, btw.). But 2017, later into the season, on tracks where mechanical grip was important (Monaco, Hungary, Singapore, etc.) Ferrari was fastest (even though they had a clearly weaker engine).

Last year, especially from the second part of the season on, Mercedes was very good in low- and medium-speed. This year they seem to be even more competitive in this aspect. On the other hand, Ferrari for now seems to be clearly behind in low- and medium-speed, but fairly fast in high speed corners.

[GPR-A]

Impossible: RB have the best chassis of the world.

Of course, it will be Honda's fault if they don't win championship

No one said anything remotely close to that so far. And last year RB most definetly did have the best chassis. Mclaren also had a very good car in 2017 and a dog in 2018, despite the engine being better.

With the party mode having been pegged back (stricter oil burning regulation) and Honda seems to have come closer to Merc and Ferrari on PU parity, it would be on display for everyone to see, if the RB claims of having had best chassis for past couple of years is just hot gas OR they can compete with the Mercedes and Ferrari. I have always had doubts with their uni-dimensional approach to overtly rely on creating high down force cars, which might suite some circuits and not all on the calendar, against Mercedes who philosophy is to build cars with a compromise of high down force and straight line performance that can suit more circuits.

Looking at the speed trap figures of Perez, Giovinazzi and Albon, it does feels like the 3 manufacturer's PUs are almost on par. Those 3 cars are just separated by 2 tenths between them in Q2 and Perez's Q3 time was worse than his Q2. There might still be some gap on PU, but doesn't look as large as it was until last year. Unless, Honda is running the PU way more aggressively than the others, as they have already planned to take penalties.

[yelistener]

Last year rb14 minimum speed trough T11-12 was 261, this year 254. It could be they really are running less DF than usual, would make sense with them being fast on the straights.

That's a reasonable explanation. I hope it's true. The last thing you want to see if Mercedes donimates at a RB-friendly circuit lol

I'm not sure this track can be called RB-friendly. In past few years Redbull has been nowhere on this track. For some reason, Mercedes has always been fast in Melbourne. Also in 2017 when they were behind Ferrari and Redbull in terms of mechanical grip. In 2017 Vettel was as fast as Bottas in Melbourne, but Hamilton was 2.5 tenths faster, which is the Hamilton factor on this track (puts the amazing lap of Bottas today more into perspective, btw.). But 2017, later into the season, on tracks where mechanical grip was important (Monaco, Hungary, Singapore, etc.) Ferrari was fastest (even though they had a clearly weaker engine).

Last year, especially from the second part of the season on, Mercedes was very good in low- and medium-speed. This year they seem to be even more competitive in this aspect. On the other hand, Ferrari for now seems to be clearly behind in low- and medium-speed, but fairly fast in high speed corners.

No I didn't say Melbourne was RB-friendly. This is a stop-and-go track, clearly not in RB's favor.

What I meant was, I hope being slower than Mercedes at middle-slow corners was indeed because of low DF setup, not RB's chassis being inferior, because the latter would mean Mercedes will dominate RB-friendly tracks like Monaco or Hungarian. No one wants to see that happen, as that'd be 2016 all over again.

[Juzh]

No one said anything remotely close to that so far. And last year RB most definetly did have the best chassis. Mclaren also had a very good car in 2017 and a dog in 2018, despite the engine being better.

With the party mode having been pegged back (stricter oil burning regulation) and Honda seems to have come closer to Merc and Ferrari on PU parity, it would be on display for everyone to see, if the RB claims of having had best chassis for past couple of years is just hot gas

Why do you think last year's events carry over to this year? Do you think that if RB's car this year is a dog it somehow makes their others cars the same? Have a think.

[selvam_e2002]

Impossible: RB have the best chassis of the world.

Of course, it will be Honda's fault if they don't win championship

I'm guessing your comment was a sarcastic one. I think Red Bull had a lot to prove after the divorce with Renault and I for one was expecting them to fall behind Renault and be the 4th best team. However, 4th to start off with a brand new partner and to go through that whole integration process with what looks like decent reliability is a brilliant start. If you've followed the sport for the last decade, Red Bull are always slow starters but almost certainly end up with the best chassis by year end.

I think for them to convincingly be third best at least shows that the move to Honda basically lost them nothing but gives them factory backing and works status from a manufacturer who have had a hard time but also won a lot in F1 previously.

It's just one qualifying, but initial impressions definitely indicate that Red Bull's decision was the correct one and this at least offers them some hope of parity in terms of power against rival manufacturers.

To be honest, I think Horner might be the happiest bloke in the paddock. Even more so than the Mercedes group. I have no doubt that Red Bull is the best team of this decade in terms of operations. They're not very likeable, but that's the first thing you need to be to succeed in F1.

You have missed the remaining years of HONDA engine development with Mclaren and RBR sister team. I think it is 5th year for HONDA. So, it is expected they should be some where between 5th to 10th place.

[KeiKo403]

A tongue in cheek winners and losers after qualifying.

Hamilton: Winning like Charlie Sheen.
Bottas: Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.

Vettel: Round 1 to you.
Leclerc: Kimi number two?

Verstappen: To the max.
Gasly: Ghastly, but not his fault.

Grosjean: I watched the Netflix documentary and my children are embarrassed to call me father, I must restore my honour.
Magnussen: Plenty of cars in front and behind to barge off the road.

Norris: Sim racing for the win.
Sainz: Kubica is off the Christmas card list.

Raikkonen: It could have been better and its never easy, but we'll see how it goes.
Giovinazzi: Getting smashed by a 39 year old won't be a good addition to your CV.

Perez: Daddy's money can't buy talent, confirmed.
Stroll: see above.

Hulkenberg: Renault are paying Ricciardo how much? Can I have a raise please?
Ricciardo: Damage control mode, engaged. And... Smile!

Albon: Just don't bin it tomorrow.
Kvyat: Have you heard? The 8th season of Game of Thrones starts soon.

Russell: Will not be driving for Williams next year.
Kubica: This is not Mario Kart, if you hit the wall you do not get a power-up.

Love this!!

Please keep these going throughout the season and for Race days too. Too bad we can’t upvote in the race threads.

[GPR-A]

If you've followed the sport for the last decade, Red Bull are always slow starters but almost certainly end up with the best chassis by year end.

It's a compromise that they choose to do, because in the past, they had championship at stake and kept developing the cars until late in the season. So they used to switch the resources late for the next year's car. In the past few years though, even without being in championship hunt, they have continued it. How is that they start on the back foot with a new car, when their previous car gets considered as "best chassis" on the grid? I don't understand how that doesn't translate to the new car.

If that continues to be the case, they would lose the season before they start becoming stronger as Ferrari comes out of the box quick and Mercedes (even with their volatile fast cars) keep upgrading it throughout the year.

I have no doubt that Red Bull is the best team of this decade in terms of operations.

That is a really tall claim. They had two really good drivers, who were always there to poach a podium or a win, when the leaders dropped it, whereas Mercedes and Ferrari were happy with the alpha and the side kick approach. The so many coming together of their drivers, doesn't show anything good about their driver operations if anything. It's easy to take risks and play games, when they have not been in championship hunt. But when there is the pressure to compete for a world championship, with a strong outfit like Mercedes and an ever improving Ferrari, we would see how good their operations would be. Until then, the judgement need to be reserved.

On the face of it, the best managed team on the grid is Mercedes. Look at the way they respond to an adverse situation and the way they have managed to remain competent across the regulation changes.

[Just_a_fan]

The high rake cars slow down faster at lift off.

That would only be the case if they had more drag. Do you think the high take cars are draggier?

[GPR-A]

No one said anything remotely close to that so far. And last year RB most definetly did have the best chassis. Mclaren also had a very good car in 2017 and a dog in 2018, despite the engine being better.

With the party mode having been pegged back (stricter oil burning regulation) and Honda seems to have come closer to Merc and Ferrari on PU parity, it would be on display for everyone to see, if the RB claims of having had best chassis for past couple of years is just hot gas

Why do you think last year's events carry over to this year? Do you think that if RB's car this year is a dog it somehow makes their others cars the same? Have a think.

Honestly, I did not get what you are saying. Sorry.

[Wynters]

First race of the season. Unrepresentative track. The season is not over yet, not by a long shot.

What leapt out though:-
Renault didn't find anytime between sessions which, given the track evolution (and Renault Quali mode), is quite worrying.
RBR splitting the Ferraris, despite a new engine partnership and VER's issues over the weekend.
Haas seem to have an affinity for Melbourne. Maybe they will manage to look like f***ing rockstars this weekend.
Will be interesting to see if Alfa are faster at more normal tracks.

FoM need to sort their graphics out. It's simple stuff that they've been doing for ages. No excuse for screwing it (or the top three interview audio) up.