The next legacy

[roon]

Who will be the next multi-season-winning era-defining team? Their origins may be in an existing team. They may be a new entry. They may be a familiar name. Or, is F1 on its last legs, with this this being an irrelevant question.

Factor in regulations changes, current and projected state of affairs, driver careers, staff careers, precedent, and chance, into your predictions.

Sidenote- Mercedes have maintained their position through multiple rules changes which limited design freedom. This may mean this increasingly-spec formula is being concretized into something inherently pro-Mercedes. Formula Mercedes. Emulate or stagnate.

[Phil]

Once Hamilton and Vettel retires, it’s IMO hard to look past Leclerc and Verstappen as two likely candidates who could be future multiple F1 winners.

While Leclerc looks fixed at Ferrari, i’m unsure if RedBull can make that jump. Given i’m not sure who will replace Hamilton at Mercedes when that happens, i wouldnt be surprised if perhaps Max eventually gets poached. I’m not convinced Bottas is ruthless enough to ever step up as much as i like the guy, nor am i convinced Ocon is really that good (going by his performance against Perez and his habbits of getting himself into trouble). Russel may be good or better, but judging him at Williams is extremely hard. Beyond that, i dont really see any drivers that show that spark like Leclerc and Max do.

Without the team however, being the right driver wont be enough, but i do think eventually, the best drivers get signed at the best teams. And operationally, it’ll be hard to look past Mercedes IMO. If i’d be Mercedes, i’d be seeking either Charles or Max (i’d prefer Charles, but think Max may be a more likely candidate given Toto and Jos being friends).

Not convinced McLaren will ever end up there btw - that’s why i didnt mention Sainz or Norris.

[roon]

I don't see Hamilton retiring anytime soon. He can mentally retire and still win at Mercedes. The whole team seems relaxed. They don't struggle. They've eliminated struggle. They established good organization and tech and learned to trust it.

[Tim.Wright]

StefanGP

[Ringleheim]

I notice someone voted "McLaren."

As shocking as it is to realize, McLaren is finished. They will never again be the giant they once were.

First Williams and now McLaren.

I see the state of F1 being rather sick right now. Most of the big manufacturers have left and are not coming back, and the sport has changed such that a big privateer team can't really win as they used to.

What if Mercedes decided tomorrow they are are done with F1 for a while or permanently?

The sport would consist of "no one" plus Ferrari.

I don't think Honda's and Renault's presence adds up to much, and both have left before and could leave again.

[Mr. Fahrenheit]

I can't see any future without Mercedes at the front in the short-medium term (1-3 years)

Operationally they're just ahead of the other teams. On weekends that they arrive on the front-foot, they're unstoppable. On weekends they're all over the place in free practice, they come good when they need to.

They're able to ride rule changes and stay top of the pack. I think the foundation for their superiority is based away from the race track... and I can't think of many rule changes that can disrupt that without wrecking other teams more.

I write this as a Ferrari man... I really admire how well put together they are!

[RaulRof]

Best wishes, our thoughts are with you.
Ill try not to dodge the next incomming.
Salute.

[Ringleheim]

I can't see any future without Mercedes at the front in the short-medium term (1-3 years)

Operationally they're just ahead of the other teams. On weekends that they arrive on the front-foot, they're unstoppable. On weekends they're all over the place in free practice, they come good when they need to.

They're able to ride rule changes and stay top of the pack. I think the foundation for their superiority is based away from the race track... and I can't think of many rule changes that can disrupt that without wrecking other teams more.

I write this as a Ferrari man... I really admire how well put together they are!

The basic formula governing these cars is so complex now, you have to be a Mercedes of the automotive world to have a shot to dominate as they do.

I'm not even sure a well run privateer team such as Red Bull can end up on top with the current engine formula. It's too complicated and Red Bull don't make their own PUs.

I would imagine Mercedes have all sorts of technical support and manpower coming from other areas in the global Mercedes empire; it's not all coming out of a small shop in Brackley.

There aren't many companies that can compete with Mercedes in this manner. Renault should be able to do a better job than they are, Honda as well. Toyota would seem a likely candidate also, but they don't seem to believe in F1.

Another automotive name that comes to mind is BMW. F1 would be more interesting if BMW returned to the sport and operated a team on the level of Mercedes.

[humble sabot]

i’m unsure if RedBull can make that jump. Given i’m not sure who will replace Hamilton at Mercedes when that happens, i wouldnt be surprised if perhaps Max eventually gets poached. I’m not convinced Bottas is ruthless enough to ever step up as much as i like the guy, nor am i convinced Ocon is really that good (going by his performance against Perez and his habbits of getting himself into trouble). Russel may be good or better, but judging him at Williams is extremely hard. Beyond that, i dont really see any drivers that show that spark like Leclerc and Max do.

They've been grooming Max for ages to be their new Vettel. They will definitely keep him. He's young enough that he's less likely to pull an Alonso/Ricciardo/Raikonen and jump to a slower team to get the corporate dummies off his back, while he's on the up, at any rate.

McLaren's my darkhorse pick though, they really have pulled through their issues and are right where they need to be a lot of the time. I expect, being a factory team with a brand that is extremely hungry to fight ferrari in the streets that they'll continue to put the effort into the program that it needs till it comes good.

The big variable going forward is which team has the internal knowledge and technique that's going to allow them to not just Brawn the first year of new regs but thoroughly make the most of the new formula in a way that they can progress their development program without plateauing. Merc is currently the fastest, and certainly the most well managed team, but their edge is dulling, they've barely got pace advantage despite constant improvement. And McLaren seems to be the ones building the most pace per race, and I can definitely see them bringing that forward.

In short I think the first year won't tell us who's going to be dominant until near the end, but that it will be the teams with the best pace of intelligent development that will show who will be dominant in the next chapter.

I fully expect Merc to actually give up at their peak the same way Porsche did with LMP1H. They may stay on as an engine supplier though. Figure '22-'23 to start hearing rumours, particularly if the Merc engine advantage wanes.

my guess:
1- McLaren - 5 years of general dominance
2- Redbull - Much like ferrari this year, keeping Mclaren sweating in the later part of the 5
3- Merc/____(Amazon?)
3- Ferrari - low phase, tying with the Merc effort till the next reg change where they win everything again, Shcumi era lapping the field etc, unless the FIA has a real change of heart and stops subsidizing the wealthiest team.

Not sure how the rest would shake out but I feel fairly confident in the above.