Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:45 pm

Andres125sx wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:09 pm

About the investment, sorry but wrong question. It´s not where is this going to come from, but where is this coming from. Most countries are investing in renewables and increasing their percentage in their electricity production for many years now, so in the future it will come from the same place it´s been coming from these years, the same place as any investment of any goverment, our wallets. Nothing is free, if you want something, you must be prepared to assume the cost.
Ok. From Wikipedia because it was an easy search:
"Energy use in the United Kingdom stood at 2,249 TWh (193.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent) in 2014.[1] This equates to energy consumption per capita of 34.82 MWh (3.00 tonnes of oil equivalent) compared to a 2010 world average of 21.54 MWh (1.85 tonnes of oil equivalent).[2] Demand for electricity in 2014 was 34.42GW on average[3] (301.7TWh over the year) coming from a total electricity generation of 335.0TWh."

The UK's total energy demand - that's everything that has to be replaced to become zero emissions - was 2,249TWh. Our generating capacity was 335TWh. That's a little over 6.7 times the demand than the supply is able to provide. So if the UK is to go zero emissions, we have to provide nearly 7 times our current generating ability with renewables. Our current renewables is about 20-35% depending on figures used. So we have to increase our renewables generating capacity by 20 times (assuming current is 35%)! And our current grid is close enough to capacity to make no difference, and it's old. So we need to replace all of that too, 21 times (20 new times plus replace the existing).

That's the reality of going zero emissions a.k.a. pollution free. And that's why it won't happen in my lifetime. Or, if I had any, my children's lifetime.

So please, enough of the dreams. The sad reality is that pollution is not going away in a hurry.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:47 pm

roon wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:58 pm
We use 100% of the energy we consume
Only if you include getting fat in the "use" bit. Excessive energy consumption is the biggest health risk in the "developed West".
:wink:
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:19 am

Tommy Cookers wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:10 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:09 pm
.....Also, if all cars were EV, we´d save a lot of millions on health services thanks to respiratory diseases being reduced. Even allergies will improve as pollution increase the efect of allergens dramatically, so it´s not a waste, it´s an investment wich in the long term will be worth unquestionably
the usual rubbish !

car air pollution has fallen to a level where it isn't significant to health
Source for that bold claim??

Tommy Cookers wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:10 pm
cars produce a small fraction of the present tiny level of Pms - 'green' heating produces the big fraction
tiny level historically - and tiny level compared to many less 'developed' countries
A big fraction of pollution comes from heating, agree, but that´s FAR from meaning cars produce tiny levels. If that was the case, in summer there would be no pollution cloud around cities, but there are, so sorry but you´re plain wrong, my eyes don´t lie and I see the pollution cloud even at 40ºC with all heating systems off

Tommy Cookers wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:10 pm
there's just one study (using 30 year old data) - claiming to have shown that people had their lives shortened by 0.1%
if your preferred football team has red shirts there will be statistics showing that shortens your life by more than 0.1%
but WHO officials are weak-minded indecisive cowards - and anyway intend never to surrender their power over us
now others are using the bogus claims of that study as pseudo-evidence to feed into policy models
its not science - it's politics manifested as scientific fraud whose only excuse is that it's motivated by muddled sincerity
Rubbish you said? Yes, this part is utter rubbish supported only by your prejudices #-o

“The true cost of climate change is felt in our hospitals and in our lungs. The health burden of polluting energy sources is now so high, that moving to cleaner and more sustainable choices for energy supply, transport and food systems effectively pays for itself,” says Dr Maria Neira, WHO Director of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health.
https://www.who.int/air-pollution/news- ... our-health


Also...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6033955/

https://www.psr.org/wp-content/uploads/ ... ratory.pdf

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:26 am

Just_a_fan wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:45 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:09 pm

About the investment, sorry but wrong question. It´s not where is this going to come from, but where is this coming from. Most countries are investing in renewables and increasing their percentage in their electricity production for many years now, so in the future it will come from the same place it´s been coming from these years, the same place as any investment of any goverment, our wallets. Nothing is free, if you want something, you must be prepared to assume the cost.
Ok. From Wikipedia because it was an easy search:
"Energy use in the United Kingdom stood at 2,249 TWh (193.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent) in 2014.[1] This equates to energy consumption per capita of 34.82 MWh (3.00 tonnes of oil equivalent) compared to a 2010 world average of 21.54 MWh (1.85 tonnes of oil equivalent).[2] Demand for electricity in 2014 was 34.42GW on average[3] (301.7TWh over the year) coming from a total electricity generation of 335.0TWh."

The UK's total energy demand - that's everything that has to be replaced to become zero emissions - was 2,249TWh. Our generating capacity was 335TWh. That's a little over 6.7 times the demand than the supply is able to provide. So if the UK is to go zero emissions, we have to provide nearly 7 times our current generating ability with renewables. Our current renewables is about 20-35% depending on figures used. So we have to increase our renewables generating capacity by 20 times (assuming current is 35%)! And our current grid is close enough to capacity to make no difference, and it's old. So we need to replace all of that too, 21 times (20 new times plus replace the existing).

That's the reality of going zero emissions a.k.a. pollution free. And that's why it won't happen in my lifetime. Or, if I had any, my children's lifetime.

So please, enough of the dreams. The sad reality is that pollution is not going away in a hurry.
Dreams, no, reality, only that you´re, intentionally or not, ignoring the factor wich will make the difference #-o

Renewable energy don´t need to be produced into a plant and then be transported through the grid, it can be produced at our homes, it actually is being produced at homes, and it will increase dramatically in next years, reducing grid demands drastically


BTW, who said in a hurry??? Please don´t use straw man arguments, we all are agreeing it will take decades

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:55 am

Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:26 am

Renewable energy don´t need to be produced into a plant and then be transported through the grid, it can be produced at our homes, it actually is being produced at homes, and it will increase dramatically in next years, reducing grid demands drastically
There are about 25million homes in the UK. Assuming each has a roof (many are flats so don't have their own roof), an average domestic installation of 3.5kW, we could produce 85GW from domestic PV installation. That's a lot, yes, but it's still a long way short of the amount we need to go zero emissions as shown in my earlier post. Even putting PV on offices and factories won't be sufficient.

And we still need grid capacity to move this electricity around to where it's needed. Most home don't use it during the day when it's being generated, so it needs to fed to offices etc. that do need it.

It's much better to be realistic and understand the scale of the problem. It's daunting, yes, but it's the essential to understand it.

Oh, and a downvote because you don't like my post? Really.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

rscsr
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by rscsr » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:41 am

Just_a_fan wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:55 am
Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:26 am

Renewable energy don´t need to be produced into a plant and then be transported through the grid, it can be produced at our homes, it actually is being produced at homes, and it will increase dramatically in next years, reducing grid demands drastically
There are about 25million homes in the UK. Assuming each has a roof (many are flats so don't have their own roof), an average domestic installation of 3.5kW, we could produce 85GW from domestic PV installation. That's a lot, yes, but it's still a long way short of the amount we need to go zero emissions as shown in my earlier post. Even putting PV on offices and factories won't be sufficient.

And we still need grid capacity to move this electricity around to where it's needed. Most home don't use it during the day when it's being generated, so it needs to fed to offices etc. that do need it.

It's much better to be realistic and understand the scale of the problem. It's daunting, yes, but it's the essential to understand it.

Oh, and a downvote because you don't like my post? Really.
Andres points still stand. We currently produce our energy demands centrally and our grid handles it just fine. And there is more to the renewable energy than PV. Especially wind energy is pretty mature at this point. And usually if there is no sun, there is wind.
The only problem with the grid is when you want to further centralise energy production by producing wind in the North Sea or solar in the Sahara and transport it to central Europe.
But don't misunderstand me, I also think that there needs further investments in the grid and storage facilities but I don't think that this is a massive undertaking, it just requires a healthy mix of different renewable sources in a decentral fashion.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:31 am

rscsr wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:41 am

The only problem with the grid is when you want to further centralise energy production by producing wind in the North Sea or solar in the Sahara and transport it to central Europe.
The UK has the world's largest off shore wind generation installation. All of that goes via the grid. Every time we increase off shore generation - and it's a sensible thing to do - we need to push it through the grid. But that's ok if we just use the off shore to replace the onshore fossil fuelled sources. Like for like replacement, no problem, the existing grid spine can do that - although adding new wires would be the obvious thing to do.
But don't misunderstand me, I also think that there needs further investments in the grid and storage facilities but I don't think that this is a massive undertaking, it just requires a healthy mix of different renewable sources in a decentral fashion.
The problem comes, as I've pointed out with numbers (this being a technical forum), is that we need to massively increase renewables in order to replace the petrol and diesel engines in our vehicles. Those renewables aren't going to be just local PV or local wind turbines. It needs to be a twenty-fold increase in total energy production in the UK. Maybe Austria is different but I'm willing to bet it isn't.

I'm not sure people really understand how much energy is used by petrol/diesel-powered transport. To replace that with electricity, however sourced, is non-trivial.

As I said previously, I'm a fan of EVs but I'm also realisitic. This is not a small task. It's not even a big task. It's bigger than that.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:33 am

Just_a_fan wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:55 am
Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:26 am

Renewable energy don´t need to be produced into a plant and then be transported through the grid, it can be produced at our homes, it actually is being produced at homes, and it will increase dramatically in next years, reducing grid demands drastically
There are about 25million homes in the UK. Assuming each has a roof (many are flats so don't have their own roof), an average domestic installation of 3.5kW, we could produce 85GW from domestic PV installation. That's a lot, yes, but it's still a long way short of the amount we need to go zero emissions as shown in my earlier post. Even putting PV on offices and factories won't be sufficient.

And we still need grid capacity to move this electricity around to where it's needed. Most home don't use it during the day when it's being generated, so it needs to fed to offices etc. that do need it.

It's much better to be realistic and understand the scale of the problem. It's daunting, yes, but it's the essential to understand it.

Oh, and a downvote because you don't like my post? Really.
3.5kW is a small installation, if you want to feed an EV obviously it will need to be bigger, but that's not a problem, just install more PV or add wind turbines, increasing your numbers by a big factor

Also, flats also have a roof, even if it's not private PV and wind turbines can still be installed, both as an individual installation or communal


The downvote is due to your bold claim about car emissions being almost insignificant to health, if you can provide some source for that I'll be happy to retire it

santos
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by santos » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:02 pm

Tommy Cookers wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:38 pm
santos wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:52 am
Just_a_fan wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:07 am
The UK currently generates about 20% of its electricity demand from renewable sources.
That's pretty low for a country like UK. And you can do much more than that. More of 50% of the energy consumed in Portugal its from renewable sources.
don't you mean that more than 50% of the electrical energy consumed in Portugal is from renewable sources ?
Yes. Althought the demand of the grid is nowhere near of the UK. Yesterday the demand at 14h was 7GW. In the UK i guess it was 39GW. The quantity of energy renewable produced by the UK would be enough to Portugal.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:54 pm

Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:33 am

The downvote is due to your bold claim about car emissions being almost insignificant to health, if you can provide some source for that I'll be happy to retire it
I'm not sure I said car emissions were insignificant to health.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:15 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48944561

Pollution from EVs from tyres and brakes.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:21 pm

Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:33 am
3.5kW is a small installation
As I said, it's an average installation.
if you want to feed an EV obviously it will need to be bigger, but that's not a problem, just install more PV or add wind turbines, increasing your numbers by a big factor
Assuming you have roof space available. In many UK terraced houses (which is a typical urban dwelling in the UK), the usable roof space is limited as the house is actually quite small. Wind turbines are necessarily small in most urban environments. So it's not as simple as you suggest. It might be ok in countries where dwellings are larger/have large flat roofs, but there are real practical problems in the UK.
Also, flats also have a roof, even if it's not private PV and wind turbines can still be installed, both as an individual installation or communal
Yes, flats have roofs but the roof space is shared across many dwellings so it's much less PV per dwelling available. Wind turbines are, again, problematic in urban environments.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

roon
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by roon » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:23 pm

Just_a_fan wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:15 pm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48944561

Pollution from EVs from tyres and brakes.
Rain runoff from road surfaces will be found far worse if a study is made, mark my word. You're hair splitting on the wrong avenue, as it were. You should be advocating for the abolition of asphalt as a precursor to electric vehicle development and use.

No numbers in that article, by the way. Just a scaremongering observation about the change in composition of total particulate pollution without any reference to the total volume/mass being reduced. So stupid and simple an analysis that intent might be presumed.

To your argument generally: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trivial_objections
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_magnitude

Of all the motive technologies to quibble over in regards brake dust, perhaps dont pick the one that is capable of regenerative i.e. non-friction braking.

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:59 pm

Just_a_fan wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:21 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:33 am
3.5kW is a small installation
As I said, it's an average installation.
At least in Spain no, 3.5kW is the minimum you can sign in with any company, enough for a normal home, but obviously if you want to feed an EV you´ll need something more powerful.
Just_a_fan wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:21 pm
if you want to feed an EV obviously it will need to be bigger, but that's not a problem, just install more PV or add wind turbines, increasing your numbers by a big factor
Assuming you have roof space available. In many UK terraced houses (which is a typical urban dwelling in the UK), the usable roof space is limited as the house is actually quite small. Wind turbines are necessarily small in most urban environments. So it's not as simple as you suggest. It might be ok in countries where dwellings are larger/have large flat roofs, but there are real practical problems in the UK.
Also, flats also have a roof, even if it's not private PV and wind turbines can still be installed, both as an individual installation or communal
Yes, flats have roofs but the roof space is shared across many dwellings so it's much less PV per dwelling available. Wind turbines are, again, problematic in urban environments.

Proabably you´re thinking about normal wind turbines
Image

But for particulars, there are a lot more options wich are obviously more practical for roof instalations, both horizontal axis
https://myskywind.shop/en?gclid=CjwKCAj ... 2wQAvD_BwE
Image

Or vertical axis
https://www.indiamart.com/proddetail/3- ... ution.com/
Image

http://www.blogtheorem.com/tech/vertica ... for-future
Image

Look at this one, 3kW turbine, but with this design, it can be up to 10kW
https://www.solarstore.co/Roof-Mount-30 ... _p_13.html
Last edited by Andres125sx on Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:05 pm

Just_a_fan wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:54 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:33 am

The downvote is due to your bold claim about car emissions being almost insignificant to health, if you can provide some source for that I'll be happy to retire it
I'm not sure I said car emissions were insignificant to health.
True, I confused different messages, my bad. It was when you stated I´m dreaming because the switch will not happen in a hurry, despite I´ve stated repeatedly it will take decades. Sorry but I don´t like people manipulating my words