FW17 wrote: ↑
Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:43 am
Is this right?
There are 77 million cars sold yearly
If all consume 100kwh a day, this will amount to 2800twh usage a year
Considering 2019 entire consumption was 21372twh this does not look so bad
In terms of growth of generation capacity in 2010 17935twh was generated compared to 2019 21372tkw. The additional 2800twh capacity addition does not look so daunting
Some additional math because I was interested in the numbers being talked about.
There are between 1 and 1.4 billion cars on the road today. Projected to hit 2 billion by 2035.
Taking your numbers of 100kwh/day and 2800twh per year, if you converted 1 billion cars to electric cars today you would need roughly an additional 36,364twh to accommodate them if my math is correct.
77m cars / 2800twh = 27500 cars per twh supported
1b cars / 27,500 cars per twh = 36,364 twh needed for support of those vehicles
That is over double the power we use today in a year if the 2019 ~21,372twh number quoted is correct.
Now if you are aggressive and assume that all cars sold by 2025 are electric and ICE vehicles are gone, then you could reach the conclusion that you would replace all ice vehicles by 2035. (This is very aggressive actually)
If you did so then in 15 years from today you would have to over double the worlds electricity output.
In the last 10 years, by your numbers, the electricity output increased only 16% ish.
To go from 16% ish in 10 years to over 100% in 15 years is a very tall order.
Let alone doing it all with renewables, which are only a small % of electricity generated today.
Really even doing 1/2 that power in 15 years seems like a pretty tall order.
And thats just for cars, not additional industry, not additional population, not additional items that are run by other power today than electric.
Seems like alot of growth for just the power generation.
Then you have to think about power distribution, baseline power generation needs, battery storage if we think all this growth is going to be renewable, battery recycling from various sources, availability of alot more resources and the pollution cost to get them out of the earth for the drastic increase in battery production that would be needed to sustain that pace.
Something other than fossil fuels is the future for sure, but getting off fossil fuels will take us a long long time, and to replace all cars with electric's seems like it will be a decades long journey that just started.