Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[Just_a_fan]

Solar tiles are much more expensive (2x or 3x the cost of normal PV panels) so are unlikely to be popular. Tesla has been promising solar tiles in the UK for some time now but they've never arrived. I'd be surprised if they ever do, which is a shame because I like the look of them. The tiles are generally less efficient than the better PV panels too, which doesn't help, although they do cover the entire roof so there is some claw-back there.

other firms are making solar tiles besides Tesla, like Hantile whose photo i posted, and yes they are brand spanking new so they're going to get a lot cheaper. They are less efficient it's true, for now at least, but stick-on panels are ugly aren't they so with new builds there will be takers, especially if the government allows bigger windows with them for example (they're limited to 25% of floor area atm) or gives other incentives like they have for EV's. And they will be cool won't they, so upmarket houses will get them to go with the charger in the triple garage, and then gerdoink everyone will want them

Er, short answer to all of that is: no.

Long answer is that the tiles will be more expensive anyway partly because they take much longer to install than the large panels. The large panels can also be inset flush with the remainder of the roof tiles and, when done like that, look very much like a rooflight. They don't look ugly at all then.

New builds are built to make maximum profit. The housebuilders don't want to put ordinary PV on houses because of the added cost, they're sure not going to rush out to put PV tiles on at twice the price (plus much longer fitting times).

Window opening sizes can be adjusted by improving performance elsewhere and/or fitting higher performing windows themselves.

I don't think everyone will want them, because just like EVs, they're a niche market. Even when EVs become mainstream (and that's going to take a while anyway), people aren't going to rush out and replace their roof covering with PV tiles - they'll just stick the traditional PV panels on just like now.

[Tommy Cookers]

good advertising .... but actually ....
charging them is mainly by burning fossil fuels turned into delivered electricity at 40% efficiency
it doesn't even matter whether EVs are the best use of the low-carbon aka renewable electricity that we haven't got

it's going to be solar and wind power:

The UK Government has committed to 40GW of installed offshore capacity by 2030,[17] bringing overall UK wind capacity to over 50GW, the UK electricity demand is between 30-40GW in 2019.[18]

wikipedia

no it's not going to be solar and wind power .....
unless we ignore and leave to fossil fuel the demand for heating - this is far greater than the demand for electricity

even HM Govt now recognises this - after 20 years of pretending otherwise
though they still brainwash with the happy-clappy image of EVs saving the world
electrical heating expansion should progress in co-ordination with EV takeup progress

btw woodburning is a surprisingly substantial part (c. 2 GW at Drax alone) of renewable electrical generation (and CHP)
though apparently being quietly capped like the RHI

[izzy]

Er, short answer to all of that is: no.

that is not how to have a discussion

[izzy]

no it's not going to be solar and wind power .....
unless we ignore and leave to fossil fuel the demand for heating - this is far greater than the demand for electricity

even HM Govt now recognises this - after 20 years of pretending otherwise
though they still brainwash with the happy-clappy image of EVs saving the world
electrical heating expansion should progress in co-ordination with EV takeup progress

btw woodburning is a surprisingly substantial part (c. 2 GW at Drax alone) of renewable electrical generation (and CHP)
though apparently being quietly capped like the RHI

we are going to ignore heating obviously, because we are talking about cars being run on electricity instead of fossil fuel, and the expansion of electricity generation is all going to be solar and wind power. Have another pic:

[Just_a_fan]

Er, short answer to all of that is: no.

that is not how to have a discussion

Did you stop there or did you read the other 4 paragraphs?

[Just_a_fan]

[...]

we are going to ignore heating obviously, because we are talking about cars being run on electricity instead of fossil fuel, and the expansion of electricity generation is all going to be solar and wind power. Have another pic:

Well UK Govt has plans to ban the use of gas heating for new build houses from 2025. If they do that, then heating will have to be electric of some sort. Probably air source heat pumps (ASHP) driven by mains electricity. That's going to be from the current gas-fired national grid generators to start with, moving to non-fossil sources as time goes on I would guess. So not only will we have to power our cars with wind turbines, we'll have to increasingly heat our homes too. And as gas boilers die in the existing housing stock, they'll need to be replaced with ASHP and that will be more electricity required.

One problem with ASHP is that they're not very efficient in the sort of conditions the UK has during winter i.e. cold and damp. That'll be nice, won't it?

[Big Tea]

[...]

we are going to ignore heating obviously, because we are talking about cars being run on electricity instead of fossil fuel, and the expansion of electricity generation is all going to be solar and wind power. Have another pic:

Well UK Govt has plans to ban the use of gas heating for new build houses from 2025. If they do that, then heating will have to be electric of some sort. Probably air source heat pumps (ASHP) driven by mains electricity. That's going to be from the current gas-fired national grid generators to start with, moving to non-fossil sources as time goes on I would guess. So not only will we have to power our cars with wind turbines, we'll have to increasingly heat our homes too. And as gas boilers die in the existing housing stock, they'll need to be replaced with ASHP and that will be more electricity required.

One problem with ASHP is that they're not very efficient in the sort of conditions the UK has during winter i.e. cold and damp. That'll be nice, won't it?

I wonder if they have fully researched the impact of so many houses using air heat pumps on the surrounding environment? although minor for each unit, if it becomes the norm it must have a huge effect overall.

[Just_a_fan]

I wonder if they have fully researched the impact of so many houses using air heat pumps on the surrounding environment? although minor for each unit, if it becomes the norm it must have a huge effect overall.

Interesting thought but once the houses are being heated, the system is in reasonable balance - the heat energy taken out of the local air by the heat pump is leaked back in to the local air by the fabric of the building. After all, once you have got the house to the required temperature, you're only having to add heat that is being lost through the envelope of the building anyway.

[Big Tea]

I wonder if they have fully researched the impact of so many houses using air heat pumps on the surrounding environment? although minor for each unit, if it becomes the norm it must have a huge effect overall.

Interesting thought but once the houses are being heated, the system is in reasonable balance - the heat energy taken out of the local air by the heat pump is leaked back in to the local air by the fabric of the building. After all, once you have got the house to the required temperature, you're only having to add heat that is being lost through the envelope of the building anyway.

If you have a 'street' of 50 houses, with the air movement directly along it, the first house gets 20 degrees out of it, it moves along to the next house and gets uses again, how many houses in a close proximity can stil get efficient use of the air? Is it constantly renewable to a usable standard? Yes, extreme I know, but if a city of 10 million all use it, it must surely add up.

[izzy]

Well UK Govt has plans to ban the use of gas heating for new build houses from 2025. If they do that, then heating will have to be electric of some sort. Probably air source heat pumps (ASHP) driven by mains electricity. That's going to be from the current gas-fired national grid generators to start with, moving to non-fossil sources as time goes on I would guess. So not only will we have to power our cars with wind turbines, we'll have to increasingly heat our homes too. And as gas boilers die in the existing housing stock, they'll need to be replaced with ASHP and that will be more electricity required.

One problem with ASHP is that they're not very efficient in the sort of conditions the UK has during winter i.e. cold and damp. That'll be nice, won't it?

this is superb deflection and much better than 'no' The argument was that EV's won't help because in effect they'll be run indirectly on fossil fuel. So i posted that by 2030 the UK government is committed to generating over 50 GW with wind power, against a consumption of 30-40 GW. That's a surplus of 10-20GW plus solar plus individual houses

so to show that new build houses are going to spoil that and mean we might as well carry on running cars on petrol and diesel, you need to show some numbers doncha think? especially when it'd be relatively easy, as we're talking about new build houses, for the government to just simply make them have those magic tiles

[djos]

Well UK Govt has plans to ban the use of gas heating for new build houses from 2025. If they do that, then heating will have to be electric of some sort. Probably air source heat pumps (ASHP) driven by mains electricity. That's going to be from the current gas-fired national grid generators to start with, moving to non-fossil sources as time goes on I would guess. So not only will we have to power our cars with wind turbines, we'll have to increasingly heat our homes too. And as gas boilers die in the existing housing stock, they'll need to be replaced with ASHP and that will be more electricity required.

One problem with ASHP is that they're not very efficient in the sort of conditions the UK has during winter i.e. cold and damp. That'll be nice, won't it?

this is superb deflection and much better than 'no' The argument was that EV's won't help because in effect they'll be run indirectly on fossil fuel. So i posted that by 2030 the UK government is committed to generating over 50 GW with wind power, against a consumption of 30-40 GW. That's a surplus of 10-20GW plus solar plus individual houses

so to show that new build houses are going to spoil that and mean we might as well carry on running cars on petrol and diesel, you need to show some numbers doncha think? especially when it'd be relatively easy, as we're talking about new build houses, for the government to just simply make them have those magic tiles

Moving Heating/Cooling to all-electric (combined with better-insulated houses) along with moving to 100% renewable generation (including keeping Fission in the mix) is certainly achievable, any one who suggests differently is being closed-minded.

[izzy]

Moving Heating/Cooling to all-electric (combined with better-insulated houses) along with moving to 100% renewable generation (including keeping Fission in the mix) is certainly achievable.

so true, pretty much everywhere is either sunny or windy after all.

But one big thing in all of it is that contraception has hardly made any progress in 50 years! Ridiculous, when you think about it, no wonder the world population has doubled in the meantime. Some of it is governments just thinking about the next few years and being re-elected, as Richard Atttenborough says https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51252222, and nobody's seeing any money in it. But luckily at least with EV's there is money in it (Elon )

[strad]

Moving Heating/Cooling to all-electric (combined with better-insulated houses) along with moving to 100% renewable generation (including keeping Fission in the mix) is certainly achievable, any one who suggests differently is being closed-minded.

So you think everybody has that kind of disposable income.
Luckily my house is well insulated and all hydro electric powered but if I was running natural gas and not so well insulated I could never afford to pay to switch over and buy a bunch of new insulation just to satisfy somebodies whims it would bankrupt me.
Since even the IPCC says their claims are just possible scenarios your asking a lot from a lot of people. IMO

[Just_a_fan]

this is superb deflection and much better than 'no'

So you didn't read the rest of my earler post then...and it's not deflection, it's discussion. It's taking opposing views and comparing them. If you just want people to agree with you, add it yo your sig line so we know.

so to show that new build houses are going to spoil that and mean we might as well carry on running cars on petrol and diesel, you need to show some numbers doncha think?

You should read what is written, not what you think is written "doncha think?" I never said in my post that we should carry on with petrol/diesel cars.

especially when it'd be relatively easy, as we're talking about new build houses, for the government to just simply make them have those magic tiles

Yeah, you're not involved in the construction industry are you? Govt doesn't force them to do anything; it's usually the other way around.

[Just_a_fan]

Well UK Govt has plans to ban the use of gas heating for new build houses from 2025. If they do that, then heating will have to be electric of some sort. Probably air source heat pumps (ASHP) driven by mains electricity. That's going to be from the current gas-fired national grid generators to start with, moving to non-fossil sources as time goes on I would guess. So not only will we have to power our cars with wind turbines, we'll have to increasingly heat our homes too. And as gas boilers die in the existing housing stock, they'll need to be replaced with ASHP and that will be more electricity required.

One problem with ASHP is that they're not very efficient in the sort of conditions the UK has during winter i.e. cold and damp. That'll be nice, won't it?

this is superb deflection and much better than 'no' The argument was that EV's won't help because in effect they'll be run indirectly on fossil fuel. So i posted that by 2030 the UK government is committed to generating over 50 GW with wind power, against a consumption of 30-40 GW. That's a surplus of 10-20GW plus solar plus individual houses

so to show that new build houses are going to spoil that and mean we might as well carry on running cars on petrol and diesel, you need to show some numbers doncha think? especially when it'd be relatively easy, as we're talking about new build houses, for the government to just simply make them have those magic tiles

Moving Heating/Cooling to all-electric (combined with better-insulated houses) along with moving to 100% renewable generation (including keeping Fission in the mix) is certainly achievable, any one who suggests differently is being closed-minded.

Strangely I never said we couldn't. My post merely pointed out tgat UK Govt wants to move lots of usage on to renewably sourced electricity. Therefore more will be required to be generated.