2021 Pecking order prediction

[Jambier]

Yes, Honda will push. Gains will not be enough though and Mercedes will easily win championship.

You are joking, aren't you? I hope so.
How do you know that the gains Honda made are not enough?
I think they are more than enough.

Let me be clearer: Honda will not provide a engine that is 100hp more powerful than a Mercedes and ensure RB title.
Honda engine will be good, Honda is not the issue here.

Honda engine was very good in 2020 also. But still, Mercedes easily won the championship, there is no reason for that to change with the B cars this year.

And I assume that the floor new rules will help Mercedes even more. Sorry, I know lots of fan here are hoping every year for RB, but it will just not happen.

Quote my post for end of the season

[Jambier]

I always thought that one in-season upgrade will be allowed in 2021, but I’m confused and not sure anymore wether that’s still the case or not.

It is not clear for me neither

Because for instance, Alpine will use the 2020 engine + the mid 2020 season update that was not allowed to race in 2020. And nothing else.

I assume Ferrari will also only use the 2021 fixed engine, but they are working 100% on 2022 engine.


So, if allowed, Honda will be the only team to continue to work on this year new engine AND be able to provide upgrades. But will it be the case ? I've read somewhere that they will instead work on one final update to let the engine in good shape for RB next year, so no in-season updates

[Wouter]

I always thought that one in-season upgrade will be allowed in 2021, but I’m confused and not sure anymore wether that’s still the case or not.

It is not clear for me neither

Because for instance, Alpine will use the 2020 engine + the mid 2020 season update that was not allowed to race in 2020. And nothing else.

I assume Ferrari will also only use the 2021 fixed engine, but they are working 100% on 2022 engine.


So, if allowed, Honda will be the only team to continue to work on this year new engine AND be able to provide upgrades. But will it be the case ? I've read somewhere that they will instead work on one final update to let the engine in good shape for RB next year, so no in-season updates

This was before the "engine freeze". I can't find an updated scheme.

[JPower]

My prediction:

1. Mercedes
They'll be very motivated to clean sweep this round of rule changes. I don't know what Lewis wants to do yet and neither does he I imagine. Best to just get out there and dominate.

2. Red Bull
I think they'll be closer to Mercedes just by having Perez alone. He won't challenge Max for outright speed but he doesn't have to. He's a quick, safe pair of hands.

3-5. Ferrari/McLaren/Aston
This is a toss up. Each has their specific advantages/disadvantages. I expect the Aston to be the quickest car of the group but I think they have the worst driver lineup of the trio. I don't expect McLaren to come bursting out of the gate just due to needing to understand the new chassis/engine/driver situation but they'll be solid in short time. Ferrari is a wild card. They also have to integrate a new driver and while the car isn't completely new its improvement could go really well or leave it on the same level as 2020. I'm expecting the former.

6-7. Alpine/Alpha Tauri
Wild cards with good drivers lineups and should be able to mix up the midfield especially if the above teams make mistakes.


8. Alfa
9. Williams
10. Haas

I expect them finish in that order. Schumacher/Mazepin will just need to survive the season. Gio is the only driver under pressure in this group IMO unless Kimi retires.

[zibby43]

The last thing RBR is hoping for is a seriously improved Ferrari.

They’ll go from having the no man’s land that existed behind Max all last year, making strategy a walk in the park (along with countless free attempts at pitting for Fastest Lap), to having 2 Ferraris in each car’s pit window at critical junctures in most races.

Ferrari’s car impressed me today. I’ll be thrilled if they join the fight.

[Wouter]

The last thing RBR is hoping for is a seriously improved Ferrari.

They’ll go from having the no man’s land that existed behind Max all last year, making strategy a walk in the park (along with countless free attempts at pitting for Fastest Lap), to having 2 Ferraris in each car’s pit window at critical junctures in most races.

Ferrari’s car impressed me today. I’ll be thrilled if they join the fight.

That's not quite right what you claim there @Zibby.
Helmut Marko today in an interview in Speedweek:

Wie siehst du die Hackordnung 2021?

Ferrari wird, nein, muss stärker werden.
Wie weit die Verbesserung reichen wird, um mit Mercedes und uns mitzukämpfen, wird sich zeigen.

How do you [Helmut Marko] see the pecking order in 2021?

HM: Ferrari will, no, have to get stronger.
How far the improvement will go to compete with Mercedes and us remains to be seen.

https://www.speedweek.com/formel1/news/ ... -2013.html

[SmallSoldier]

The last thing RBR is hoping for is a seriously improved Ferrari.

They’ll go from having the no man’s land that existed behind Max all last year, making strategy a walk in the park (along with countless free attempts at pitting for Fastest Lap), to having 2 Ferraris in each car’s pit window at critical junctures in most races.

Ferrari’s car impressed me today. I’ll be thrilled if they join the fight.

That's not quite right what you claim there @Zibby.
Helmut Marko today in an interview in Speedweek:

Wie siehst du die Hackordnung 2021?

Ferrari wird, nein, muss stärker werden.
Wie weit die Verbesserung reichen wird, um mit Mercedes und uns mitzukämpfen, wird sich zeigen.

How do you [Helmut Marko] see the pecking order in 2021?

HM: Ferrari will, no, have to get stronger.
How far the improvement will go to compete with Mercedes and us remains to be seen.

https://www.speedweek.com/formel1/news/ ... -2013.html

As always you should take what Helmut Marko says with a grain of salt, didn’t he said last season after testing that Red Bull was ahead of Mercedes?... We know how that turned out.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[zibby43]

The last thing RBR is hoping for is a seriously improved Ferrari.

They’ll go from having the no man’s land that existed behind Max all last year, making strategy a walk in the park (along with countless free attempts at pitting for Fastest Lap), to having 2 Ferraris in each car’s pit window at critical junctures in most races.

Ferrari’s car impressed me today. I’ll be thrilled if they join the fight.

That's not quite right what you claim there @Zibby.
Helmut Marko today in an interview in Speedweek:

Wie siehst du die Hackordnung 2021?

Ferrari wird, nein, muss stärker werden.
Wie weit die Verbesserung reichen wird, um mit Mercedes und uns mitzukämpfen, wird sich zeigen.

How do you [Helmut Marko] see the pecking order in 2021?

HM: Ferrari will, no, have to get stronger.
How far the improvement will go to compete with Mercedes and us remains to be seen.

https://www.speedweek.com/formel1/news/ ... -2013.html

I interpreted that as Helmut saying he doesn't know where Ferrari will end up in the pecking order and that they'll obviously have to get stronger, relative to last year, to be in the fight with RBR and Merc.

Not that they're hoping to have to fight Ferrari. But I'm obviously just relying on this translation.

[Slo Poke]

The last thing RBR is hoping for is a seriously improved Ferrari.

They’ll go from having the no man’s land that existed behind Max all last year, making strategy a walk in the park (along with countless free attempts at pitting for Fastest Lap), to having 2 Ferraris in each car’s pit window at critical junctures in most races.

Ferrari’s car impressed me today. I’ll be thrilled if they join the fight.

That's not quite right what you claim there @Zibby.
Helmut Marko today in an interview in Speedweek:

Wie siehst du die Hackordnung 2021?

Ferrari wird, nein, muss stärker werden.
Wie weit die Verbesserung reichen wird, um mit Mercedes und uns mitzukämpfen, wird sich zeigen.

How do you [Helmut Marko] see the pecking order in 2021?

HM: Ferrari will, no, have to get stronger.
How far the improvement will go to compete with Mercedes and us remains to be seen.

https://www.speedweek.com/formel1/news/ ... -2013.html

I interpreted that as Helmut saying he doesn't know where Ferrari will end up in the pecking order and that they'll obviously have to get stronger, relative to last year, to be in the fight with RBR and Merc.

Not that they're hoping to have to fight Ferrari. But I'm obviously just relying on this translation.

If Ferrari have not been formerly introduced to the Silver Bullet, then they will not be in the fight to win races.
I know, I haven’t mentioned anything about it to them and I don’t suppose RedBull have either but since Monza I’ve been toying with two possibilities. Someone else may have made some kind of arrangement with them, or Mercedes were purposely making out that Ferrari had them under pressure. Where better to do that than Monza, plus it sort of lends the impression that Mercedes are having to work hard to win championships.
Now though with two teams, to a little, identically equipped, I’ll know for sure, exactly what was going on.

[erudite450]

The last thing RBR is hoping for is a seriously improved Ferrari.

They’ll go from having the no man’s land that existed behind Max all last year, making strategy a walk in the park (along with countless free attempts at pitting for Fastest Lap), to having 2 Ferraris in each car’s pit window at critical junctures in most races.

Ferrari’s car impressed me today. I’ll be thrilled if they join the fight.

I'd very much rather have Ferrari in the fight than not. Frankly when Mercedes misses out on the championship for whatever reason, I'd prefer Ferrari or McLaren to be the ones picking up the pieces.

[zibby43]

The last thing RBR is hoping for is a seriously improved Ferrari.

They’ll go from having the no man’s land that existed behind Max all last year, making strategy a walk in the park (along with countless free attempts at pitting for Fastest Lap), to having 2 Ferraris in each car’s pit window at critical junctures in most races.

Ferrari’s car impressed me today. I’ll be thrilled if they join the fight.

I'd have very much rather have Ferrari in the fight than not. Frankly when misses out on the championship for whatever reason, I'd prefer Ferrari or McLaren to be the ones picking up the pieces.

I agree on Ferrari being competitive.

I was also really impressed with the level of detail on the Aston this year. It does not look like a midfield car at all. I think they really went all-out on trying to steal a few wins in '21.

[Jambier]

The new Ferrari seem a serious car !
Mercedes and Red Bull also obviously, and quite impressed by the Aston Martin.

The rest of the field is not as impressive, I'm a bit disapointed by the Mclaren but let's see

Rumors are +20hp for Ferrari and +15hp for Honda engines

[Wouter]

Rumors are +15hp for Honda engines

That is not correct. If that were the case, the gap with Mercedes would widen even further
and that has just been closed. I am talking about the engine, not the whole car. (gap)

[NathanOlder]

Rumors are +15hp for Honda engines

That is not correct. If that were the case, the gap with Mercedes would widen even further
and that has just been closed. I am talking about the engine, not the whole car. (gap)

How much have Mercedes gained in power over the winter ? Did I not see James Allison very smug when talking about the PU at the launch ?

[dans79]

How much have Mercedes gained in power over the winter ? Did I not see James Allison very smug when talking about the PU at the launch ?

https://f1lead.com/2021/01/05/mercedes- ... hole-race/

That seems true actually. In fact, the 2021 power unit is expected to have 25hp more compared to the one used last year. That would mean that Mercedes’ power unit could reach 1050hp in total.

Finally, during the season, Toto Wolff said that Mercedes’ goal for 2021 was to use “Party Mode” throughout the whole race after the new regulations were applied from Monza.

So it will party time all race every race!