Prediction Pecking Order at Melbourne.

[jddh1]

I reckon:

1 - Ferrari
2 - BMW
3 - RBR/Alonso
5-Toyota
6 - Williams/Brawn
8 - McLaren
9 - STR
10 - Force India


Chance of that Hedgehogs survival is 100, not only that but that hedgehog would win!

I understand it's your opinion that you have BGP at 6 (I placed them last, mind you, but I put my predictions in before the test in Barca started,) so although I disagree, I can live with that.
But how on earth do you have the hedgehog win the race when we all agreed it will have to be an emu? [-X
The hedgehog is banned by the FIA, as far as I know, since after that infamous Montreal race. You might say wrongfully so because it was a beaver to be blamed, but hey, in this ruthless media world we live in today, if you get bad pub, you're the bad guy.
Please, fix your comment!

[spaman]

I'd also like to disagree with your positioning of Williams (and concequently Brawn in the last table)...if you check the times you'll see only Williams and BrawnGP made it into the 1:19's all week, now whilst the ultimate gap between them was 0.8 secs Williams still demonstrated a 0.3 gap the next best time by Timo Glock...now we can summise all you want on fuel loads etc, we know the Williams was trying hard on a Quali trial whilst tinkering with the setup...but who is to say that A) that was a perfect run and B) that no one else tried a qualifying simulation?

To quote Massa about the Brawn lap time... "I don't think anybody could. Many people were running on low fuel as well, not just them. I think their lap time is just much quicker than what anybody else can do."

I think these factors bring to light the fact it's not worth the effort to try and guess where everyone is at present - we'll know in 2 weeks.

If you take Renault for instance - they definitely ran the fastest laps within "normal" stints - just as Ferrari did.

As I read (sorry can´t recall where at) Williams fastest lap was on soft tyres and with more air than fuel in the car.

Now again. In case (just in case) BRawn is fooling us he would have tested the car with little or no ballast which (in this case) would explain the superior longruns (1:19:xxx, 1:20:xxx, 1:21:xxx) and qualifying laps (1:18:9xx).

If you take this in consideration (adding ballast to the BGP001) it would easily match with the Williams performance. The Williams started out to be fast, but lost ground on some others and is placed realistically in "my" pecking order.

[axle]

I'll repeat... Massa said that most cars were running light on the last day...

[spaman]

I'll repeat... Massa said that most cars were running light on the last day...

How can he possibly tell? :^o

No one knows how much fuel was bunkered in the car but some mechanics of each team.

EDIT: If you check out this video you´ll find out some other things concerning yesterdays test.

Renault wasn´t running the new sidepods and podshield and didn´t use KERS (worth another 3-5 tenth (5:15-5:25 min).

[Kester]

What video?

[spaman]

Ups...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kAEMDcF ... annel_page[/youtube]

[marinopc]

Alonso told his grid predictions to "La Sexta" Sports (Spanish TV):

Alonso: “Brawn GP 1º

Ferrari 2º

BMW 3º

Toyota 4º

Renault 5º

Red Bull 6º

Mc Laren 7º

Williams 8º

Toro Rosso 9º

Force India 10º"


Also said that think he has the 70% of possibilities to be WDC again.

[andartop]

Quite optimistic of him if he rates Renault 5th, isn't it? Have we ever seen anyone winning the WDC with the 5th faster car on the grid???

[Roland Ehnström]

Yeah, I don't think Alonso can be world champion in a mid-field car. I pretty much agree with his ranking, though. It seems Brawn, Ferrari, BMW and Toyota have an edge on the mid-field (Red Bull, Renault, McLaren and Williams). Toro Rosso and Force India (though perhaps not in that order) definately brings out the rear.

Here's my prediction for the starting grid in Melbourne next weekend:

Button
Barrichello
Massa
Kubica
Räikkönen
Trulli
Heidfeld
Glock
Alonso
Vettel
Hamilton
Rosberg
Webber
Kovalainen
Nakajima
Piquet
Bourdais
Fisichella
Sutil
Buemi

[bmw fanatic]

I don't understand why so many people still seem to think that the Brawn car is chasing sponsors and running light. It makes no sense to do that.

To my mind there is every reason to suspect the pace is genuine.

1. Ross Brawn is a true racer - you don't achieve what he has by self delusion. That way you learn nothing.

2. Ross has already stated that they have the money to run the team for this year.

3. Given the above you would imagine that he would be encouraging sponsors on board for the medium and long term. You won't achieve that by running an underweight car, then turn up at the first GP with a slow mongrel of a motor - your credibility will suddenly go through the floor and potential sponsors will vanish very quickly.

I think we are seeing what the car is capable of. Perhaps what we haven't seen yet is the full potential of McLaren & Ferrari (although, I suspect the picture reflects their current form - it may change by Melbourne).

i think BRAWN is trying to delude others not himself and sureley a man of such calibre understands the need to bag a sponsor ASAP to make the team last a little longer than a year. especially if he cant replicate the same results once the season begins. i really wish they were that fast but the evidence and motive suggest otherwise.

[donskar]

bmw fanatic wrote:

i think BRAWN is trying to delude others not himself and sureley a man of such calibre understands the need to bag a sponsor ASAP to make the team last a little longer than a year. especially if he cant replicate the same results once the season begins. i really wish they were that fast but the evidence and motive suggest otherwise.

See my post under the testing thread. Highly unlikely that fake times will get a sponsor at this point. Such deals take MONTHS to consummate. By the time any deal could be signed Melbourne would prove the times were fakes.

"evidence and motive suggest otherwise"???? What evidence?

[jwielage]

Yeah, I don't think Alonso can be world champion in a mid-field car. I pretty much agree with his ranking, though.

I don't know guys, I think Alonso was being a bit coy. He topped the time sheets in today's tests beating out the Brawn GP cars. The R29 is not a "midfield car" in the sence that Alonso has the potential to win in it.

While Alonso will certainly out-perform the normal capabilities of the R29, I think Piquet will under perform relative to the car's "true" pace.

[bmw fanatic]

bmw fanatic wrote:

i think BRAWN is trying to delude others not himself and sureley a man of such calibre understands the need to bag a sponsor ASAP to make the team last a little longer than a year. especially if he cant replicate the same results once the season begins. i really wish they were that fast but the evidence and motive suggest otherwise.

See my post under the testing thread. Highly unlikely that fake times will get a sponsor at this point. Such deals take MONTHS to consummate. By the time any deal could be signed Melbourne would prove the times were fakes.

"evidence and motive suggest otherwise"???? What evidence?

motive: publicity stunt to boost rep and attarct sponsors. rumours are that they are close to closing a deal rather than persueing a new one (no one can know how close or far away from a sponsorship deal they are exactly.)

evidence: renault have hinted that they ran with little or no ballast and in the closing stages of todays testing renault beat their time presumably by running equally light to understand their true pace.

[vall]

While Alonso will certainly out-perform the normal capabilities of the R29, I think Piquet will under perform relative to the car's "true" pace.

I agree about Alonso, but Piquet is a mistery for me. He was good in GP2, but when he moved up he seems lost and unconfident

I ask again, Shount't we have tread to discuss drivers? It happens in other tread anyway, why not have one then?

[donskar]

bmw fanatic wrote

motive: publicity stunt to boost rep and attarct sponsors. rumours are that they are close to closing a deal rather than persueing a new one (no one can know how close or far away from a sponsorship deal they are exactly.)

Highly unlikely. I have a little experience here, having been a member of the Compaq team that negotiated the Williams sponsorship. Those negotiations took much longer than Brawn and his partners have owned the team. And no reputable sponsor would start negotiating with a group that did NOT own the team wanting sponsorship. In addition, the economic climate now is MUCH worse than when we negotiated the Williams sponsorship (we were spending money like drunken sailors). I hope I'm wrong; I want to see Brawn succeed. But remember, if Brawn can not back up its test times in the real races, they will repel future sponsors.

evidence: renault have hinted that they ran with little or no ballast and in the closing stages of todays testing renault beat their time presumably by running equally light to understand their true pace.

No offense meant, but "hinted" and "presumably" do not constitute "evidence."