I do wonder if McLaren might just be head-to-tail with Red Bull around Baku, or perhaps even faster. This race has never really been one that favours Red Bull, and McLaren do look like they are quite slippery. On top of that, this is a circuit that Ricciardo seem to do quite well at. Bar 2017, when he crashed out, he has yet to be out-qualified by his teammate here. And he does have a victory in 2017 after the Vettel/Hamilton incident(s) which saw both out of a podium finish.
So I might just reckon a Mercedes 1-2 with a McLaren 3rd. Very possibly Ricciardo. Alpine and Ferrari might fight for the scraps mid-bottom top 10 with Aston Martin & Gasly fighting for places just outside of top 10.
This is a race which also Perez likes. Rear-limited circuit, right up his street. And with his 'five-races-to-get-up-to-speed' done, he should be reasonably competitive. However, it does come at a circuit where Red Bull might fall slightly into the midfield more so than they are used to. So where Verstappen might fight for a podium, Perez might find himself fighting a McLaren and both of the Alpines and Ferrari, who I don't think will be that far off the others infront.
Mercedes will be eager to get a win here, and I'm expecting a somewhat comfortable 1-2, bar any mistakes.