Has Red Bull pissed away the WC?

[LionKing]

Assuming 3 major reliability failure for Red bull in a season. If it is equally likely to hit Webber's or Vettle's car then there is 1/8 chance that all will hit Vettel. I don't think this is a dismissible/negligible probability.

We should also remember that all failures were of different nature. So it is quite possible that the reason is not driver related...

What would you conclude from having 3 failures that are not obviously interrelated ? BadLuck?
I ´m sure my boss would instantly without further discussion arrange for getting my papers readied till lunch the very day when I come up with the claim we had a string of bad luck in our project..

I did not say it is just bad luck to have the failures. But what I said was it may quite possibly be "uncorrelated" to the driver. For the failures of course there would be some underlying cause. They could have designed more sturdy plus, etc... but which car it hits might be random or better phrased as uncorrelated...

My opinion about Kimi's failures in 2005 is that his driving, pushing should have a hand in that. He had so many engine blow ups. But in this case wheel, spark plug, engine failure .... I am not sure.

[segedunum]

I think people need to go away and read a decent statistics book before commenting on probabilities. In particular, people should read about what happens when you multiply the probabilities of each instance.......

Looking at probabilities also demands observation. People are acting as if Vettel is having engine failures every other race when this is his first one this season. Ahhhh, perceptions...........

[marcush.]

come on decent statistics..with 17 races per year and changes to the car in every race
you will never ever even come close to getting reliable statistical data.
The bitter truth is in a world of ppm (part per million)a single failure will throw all
calculations for reliability or robustness of your processes square and firm out of the window .
When raceteams and not just one(!) lose complete wheels without ever coming up with a sound expalanation but halfcooked excuses you surely know they simply are not tracing back failures back to their root cause but prefer to work on symptoms wich is complete and utter nonsense when your car is in a constant process of change anyways.
To work on proceedures is a ways of control and not a good method to get rid of potential failures you need to understand what happened and erase the reason for it happening .
An engine does not fall apart because it is 5 o´clock in the evenin g or it has done 400hours it fails due to a component failure.
As Expensive said ...with bearings you get a range of what so and so many bearing survive under a certain load .As your loadcase is rarely completely identical to the
generic load for the life expectancy of the part you are of course in the --- with lifing of the whole system and practically speaking you will have to try and see how long it stand up to your special case of punishment.

[xpensive]

Almost all radial bearings in an ICE engine are of the hydrodynamical kind, where a given radial clearence and a load-dependent eccentricity between male and female creates a wedge-effect, which creates the load-carrying capacity, hence "bearing".

In a perfect world, said wedge-effect and its resulting eccentricity creates an oil-film thickness which completely separates the surfaces from metal-to-metal contact, while the oil itself holds no hard particles of a size larger than the oil-film.

The above setup can run forever. If we were in a perfect world that is.

However, the given radial clearance has its bell-curved tolerances, the average roughness height of the surfaces has the same and the filtration grade is stocastic as well. The lubrication has its viscosity which is both temperature and pressure dependent, while its VI-index is sketchy as best, add the unavoidable water-content and you are tied up in a game of estimations and margins until Dracula himself shows up to take you to bed.

[theblackangus]

That proves that either

a) the RBR is a reliable car, or
b) Webber is a miracle-worker who can bring an unreliable POS to the finish even when the great Vettel can't.

Ahem, leaving only two options does not prove anything. Sometimes you flip a coin, and 6 times in a row you get tails each time.

Having two options does not equate to flipping a coin.

Vettel could just have bad luck with the car breaking and Webber could have good luck with it not breaking.

Good thought, but for 1 thing.... We all know Webber has bad luck. So they are even on that count.

[theblackangus]

Have you seen the size of Vettel's head? That has to balance out the COG with Webber right there.

Yeah but its all ego in there and thats light weight!

[theblackangus]

No plans to cast Vettel in supporting role

Red Bull Racing boss Christian Horner has declared it is still too early for the team to throw its full weight behind Mark Webber in the title chase and will continue to give Sebastian Vettel an equal shot at becoming world champion.

No support for Webber alone


I think Horner has gone crazy. How much time does he need now to throw team support for Webber?? Wake up Horner, there are only two races remaining for this year's Championship! I guess even after Interlagos, if same kind of situation remains, he will again say it is too early!

Too true. With two races left, the closest competitor has shown that they have no trouble making sure 1 driver is ahead of the other. Red Bull will loose this year (Unless Fernando is unlucky) unless they support Webbers fight.

I like the whole Red Bull team and what they bring to the sport, so I would hate to see them not win when they have the chance.

And honestly, if Vettel really cared about the team he would see what he should do now to support all the people who have supported him. (Webber included)

Vettel has plenty of time for his WDC, if he doesn't help his team to win the WDC/WCC this year then that is somewhat selfish in my opinion.
You can't give up no, but there is the greater good for the Team involved. Not giving up simply involves making sure your team gets the best result for them... not just getting the best result for you.

Sometimes 2nd place can be a winner too. The phrase "If you don't win, you are the first of the losers" doesn't really apply to an individual in a team sport. But if Vettel takes Webber both of the next races, Vettel will have made the rest of the team "The first of the losers".

I'd be pretty upset if part of my team behaved as such.

[segedunum]

The problem for Red Bull is that they could turn up at Brazil and Webber could have a shocker or he could suffer a mishap in Abu Dhabi where they will have wished Vettel had won in Brazil if they make way for Webber. I don't think they entirely trust him or the situation.

I think what they will do is let things run their course in Brazil and if Alonso is third the seas will part and Webber will win if they have the 1-2 that everyone seems to think likely. If Alonso finishes lower than third (I haven't done the calculating) then they will let things run their course in Abu Dhabi and see what happens to Alonso there.

Red Bull are more than capable of getting 1-2 finishes in the next two races so they can react to whatever happens to Alonso so they're still in control. However, if they don't get those 1-2 finishes and have any reliability problems then they lose that control. They will work that out and explain it all to the drivers long before Brazil. At least both of them know they will get a crack at the title and if it doesn't work out for Vettel then they will act accordingly making it easier for him to accept.