2017 Championship Permutations

[notsofast]

If there's no more bad luck for HAM and VET, i.e., they finish P1/P2 or P2/P1 in the remaining five races, then VET can be champion only if he wins all 5 races.

If VET gets P2 in just one race, with HAM P1, then HAM can finish the other four in P3 and still be champion. In other words, RAI in P2 won't be of any help to VET.

If HAM wins 2 more races, then he can afford a DNF, P3, and P4 for the remaining 3 races and still be champion. Or, with 2 wins he can afford P5, P5, P6 for the remaining 3 races.

Long story short, VET needs a lot of help from HAM if he doesn't win all five remaining races.

[Schuttelberg]

Yeah rosberg did , which makes it even more impressive on Lewis. I remember nearly all the times the 2 went wheel to wheel in 2013-2016 Lewis come out on top nearly always. Like what has happened with Vettel and Lewis this year

Oh absolutely! Lewis has pasted Sebastian at wheel to wheel battles this year.

As far as my memory goes, that's happened twice this season, both at Spain and each won one of those battles. In the first, Seb had the line and squeezed Lewis while in the second Lewis used the DRS to pass Seb. In each of those occasions, both drivers did the max that they could.

But of course, you have a different view of this season than us.

I swear, some people over here as so deluded it's kind of unbelievable.

So your telling me Vettel has had the upper hand on Lewis in on track battles between the 2 ?

No. I'm just saying that in wheel to wheel battles, they're equal.

[Phil]

If there's no more bad luck for HAM and VET, i.e., they finish P1/P2 or P2/P1 in the remaining five races, then VET can be champion only if he wins all 5 races.

The probability of Ham being 2nd is pretty slim. He either wins or he is more likely to finish below 3rd.

On that basis, i still rate Vettels chances extremely good to take the WDC if he wins just 4 of the next 5 races, even if Hamilton wins one of them.

[siskue2005]

If Lewis wins the next two races (Suzuka and COTA) and Seb finishes 2nd in those two. Then he would only need to finish ahead of SEB in Mexico to take the WDC with a lead of 50 points with just 2 races to go

[Schuttelberg]

If there's no more bad luck for HAM and VET, i.e., they finish P1/P2 or P2/P1 in the remaining five races, then VET can be champion only if he wins all 5 races.

If VET gets P2 in just one race, with HAM P1, then HAM can finish the other four in P3 and still be champion. In other words, RAI in P2 won't be of any help to VET.

If HAM wins 2 more races, then he can afford a DNF, P3, and P4 for the remaining 3 races and still be champion. Or, with 2 wins he can afford P5, P5, P6 for the remaining 3 races.

Long story short, VET needs a lot of help from HAM if he doesn't win all five remaining races.

If Hamilton retires in Suzuka and Vettel wins, then how does it look? There's a lot of throttle pressing to do yet. I think today could have been a disaster for Vettel. The damage was limited a lot.

The title was hanging by a thread after Singapore, post qualifying I felt it was over but it now feels like it's hanging by a thread again.

[NathanOlder]

Just out of interest, when was the last time Lewis was passed on track by a title rival (not including the run down to T1 on Lap 1)

[Restomaniac]

If there's no more bad luck for HAM and VET, i.e., they finish P1/P2 or P2/P1 in the remaining five races, then VET can be champion only if he wins all 5 races.

If VET gets P2 in just one race, with HAM P1, then HAM can finish the other four in P3 and still be champion. In other words, RAI in P2 won't be of any help to VET.

If HAM wins 2 more races, then he can afford a DNF, P3, and P4 for the remaining 3 races and still be champion. Or, with 2 wins he can afford P5, P5, P6 for the remaining 3 races.

Long story short, VET needs a lot of help from HAM if he doesn't win all five remaining races.

If Hamilton retires in Suzuka and Vettel wins, then how does it look? There's a lot of throttle pressing to do yet. I think today could have been a disaster for Vettel. The damage was limited a lot.

The title was hanging by a thread after Singapore, post qualifying I felt it was over but it now feels like it's hanging by a thread again.

Another highly likely penalty coming in Japan for Vet and it will be a 6th or worse start.

[NathanOlder]

And passing the Bulls will be very hard in japan

[TAG]

But the whole point is they weren't 5th, they figured out how to make it work, at least Lewis did.

They did? Didn't look like it - looked exactly as what was described in my post. The car either works flawless or it doesn't. Lauda described it that their car has a tiny operating window (smaller than their strongest opponents). When you hit it, it's brilliantly quick, but it can easily move out of that window based on how the car acts on the rubber, the temperature, the surface and of course the layout of the track.

As far as permutations go, ironically, Vettel lost less points to Hamilton today coming 4th to Hamilton 2nd than if Hamilton had won the race and Vettel came 2nd. Assuming many thought this was going to be a Mercedes track, this result should be quite worrying. Ferrari had fantastic pace, Mercedes did not. This was a good day for Vettel/Ferrari, against all odds.

Again: Mercedes by their own assessment (reported by AMuS) will face a difficult task in the last 3 GPs. Mexico will be high altitude and maximum downforce. Brazil could be tricky as well, as could be Abu Dhabi. We will see if Mercedes can solve their issues and hit the operating window. If they don't, Malaysia FP1, FP2, heck even FP3 and the race could show how quickly such a race could turn bad for them.

If both Vettel and Kimi had started from the front (instead of 20th and not at all), I dare say, Hamilton would have been lucky to finish 4th. This race was a bit like Christmas for Hamilton and despite coming 2nd, it counts like a win vs Vettel 2nd (similar point increase).

I know you'd come back to rub it in. First of all, apologies because your scenario was illustrated here, very well.

But...

2nd while on the back foot? Extending both championship leads? I'm sure sure Mercedes will take it.

The flip side, Ferrari can screw the pooch in one of ther "strong tracks" just as easily and rain, any time it rains it will get away from Ferrari. So out of curiosity, the chances now is still 23%? or did it get better?

[Phil]

To be honest, it didnt change, i think.

Before Malaysia, i said that if Vettel wins 4 out of the 6 remaining races, he is favorite to take the WDC. I still stand by that assessment.

Now with Hamilton 2nd, Vettel 4th, its like a Ham win to Vettel 2nd (similar point loss). This means it’s strike one against Vettel.

So by my estimation - if Vettel wins 4 races and Hamilton one of the remaining 5, i’d put my money on Vettel. How likely is it that Vettel can win 4? Not sure. The Mercedes pace this weekend is IMO worrying and shows what i’ve been on about.

As a Hamilton supporter, I think/hope CotA could favor Hamilton, Suzuka supposedly too. But most people said Malaysia was Mercedes territory too, so...

I will run the numbers later though...

[F1NAC]

So your telling me Vettel has had the upper hand on Lewis in on track battles between the 2 ?

No but same applies for Lewis.

What applies to Lewis ? I was talking about him being great at fighting on track with his title rival and Schuttelberg said I was delusional. Or at least thats how i read it.

Can you please explain me what is that great in pass with DRS and with 20kph more than your rival on one of the longest straights?

As soon as Vettel closed him, he went complaining on team radio.

Vettel was just brilliant this year with going through the field and putting some amazing overtakes. I cannot say same for lewis because he was on pole and went straight into distance. Easy work that

[Bill_Kar]

To be honest, it didnt change, i think.

Before Malaysia, i said that if Vettel wins 4 out of the 6 remaining races, he is favorite to take the WDC. I still stand by that assessment.

Now with Hamilton 2nd, Vettel 4th, its like a Ham win to Vettel 2nd (similar point loss). This means it’s strike one against Vettel.

So by my estimation - if Vettel wins 4 races and Hamilton one of the remaining 5, i’d put my money on Vettel. How likely is it that Vettel can win 4? Not sure. The Mercedes pace this weekend is IMO worrying and shows what i’ve been on about.

As a Hamilton supporter, I think/hope CotA could favor Hamilton, Suzuka supposedly too. But most people said Malaysia was Mercedes territory too, so...

I will run the numbers later though...

Yeah but the problem this weekend was again with the tyres, I think it was down more to humidity,heat, new package correlation failure,limited FP running and less down to the technical aspect of the circuit.
In contrast to Singapore (Monaco-Hungary as well), ie the nature of the circuit was responsible for Mercedes' whereabouts.

[ringo]

To be honest, it didnt change, i think.

Before Malaysia, i said that if Vettel wins 4 out of the 6 remaining races, he is favorite to take the WDC. I still stand by that assessment.

Now with Hamilton 2nd, Vettel 4th, its like a Ham win to Vettel 2nd (similar point loss). This means it’s strike one against Vettel.

So by my estimation - if Vettel wins 4 races and Hamilton one of the remaining 5, i’d put my money on Vettel. How likely is it that Vettel can win 4? Not sure. The Mercedes pace this weekend is IMO worrying and shows what i’ve been on about.

As a Hamilton supporter, I think/hope CotA could favor Hamilton, Suzuka supposedly too. But most people said Malaysia was Mercedes territory too, so...

I will run the numbers later though...

I agree with your views, but on the basis that redbull and ferrari seem to be out developing the mercedes.

I don't see the WO8 as clear favorite for any of the remaining tracks. The ferrari and redbull will not be weak at any of them.
Abudahbi will be Mercedes strongest in my opinion, but the ultrasoft can throw a curve ball in Qualifying if that's the tyre that will be the option tyre. COTA is the other strong track for mercedes, and that's not even as a very strong; just marginally strong.
Hamilton can only sleep at nights if he wins three; or if redbull wins some more; say two tracks suzuka, and interlagos.

[foxmulder_ms]

But the whole point is they weren't 5th, they figured out how to make it work, at least Lewis did.

They did? Didn't look like it - looked exactly as what was described in my post. The car either works flawless or it doesn't. Lauda described it that their car has a tiny operating window (smaller than their strongest opponents). When you hit it, it's brilliantly quick, but it can easily move out of that window based on how the car acts on the rubber, the temperature, the surface and of course the layout of the track.

As far as permutations go, ironically, Vettel lost less points to Hamilton today coming 4th to Hamilton 2nd than if Hamilton had won the race and Vettel came 2nd. Assuming many thought this was going to be a Mercedes track, this result should be quite worrying. Ferrari had fantastic pace, Mercedes did not. This was a good day for Vettel/Ferrari, against all odds.

Again: Mercedes by their own assessment (reported by AMuS) will face a difficult task in the last 3 GPs. Mexico will be high altitude and maximum downforce. Brazil could be tricky as well, as could be Abu Dhabi. We will see if Mercedes can solve their issues and hit the operating window. If they don't, Malaysia FP1, FP2, heck even FP3 and the race could show how quickly such a race could turn bad for them.

If both Vettel and Kimi had started from the front (instead of 20th and not at all), I dare say, Hamilton would have been lucky to finish 4th. This race was a bit like Christmas for Hamilton and despite coming 2nd, it counts like a win vs Vettel 2nd (similar point increase).

You are wrong about Mexico, it is not high down force. Cars will have a lot of wing on them but still their downforce will be minimal, very comparable to Monza, due to high altitude of the place. So, it can easily be a Merc track.

[Shrieker]

There aren't tracks like Monaco, Hungary, or Singapore anymore. Hamilton may very well win all the remaining races---

Welp.

The car really is a diva. Can't really explain the difference between here and Silverstone otherwise.