2017 Championship Permutations

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TAG
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Phil wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 21:40
They could have just as well been 5th at best today, meanwhile Ferrari (sans unfortunate engine failures) shows what a steadily strong contender they are.
But the whole point is they weren't 5th, they figured out how to make it work, at least Lewis did. No doubt the car is temperamental about tire temperature window, but it's not as if they were unable to figure it out despite being on the back foot. Additionally the more they figure it out the less likely it is to happen again. So to say that they're going to have issues because of the car being a "Diva" is the exception not the rule as you're framing it. You'd just as likely expect a component failure from Vettel going forward every race as well as those Turbos are clearly not going to make it the lenght of the season.
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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TAG wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 21:52
Phil wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 21:40
They could have just as well been 5th at best today, meanwhile Ferrari (sans unfortunate engine failures) shows what a steadily strong contender they are.
But the whole point is they weren't 5th, they figured out how to make it work, at least Lewis did. No doubt the car is temperamental about tire temperature window, but it's not as if they were unable to figure it out despite being on the back foot. Additionally the more they figure it out the less likely it is to happen again. So to say that they're going to have issues because of the car being a "Diva" is the exception not the rule as you're framing it. You'd just as likely expect a component failure from Vettel going forward every race as well as those Turbos are clearly not going to make it the lenght of the season.
Which is exactly why it's a practice session. The last time I checked the WDC wasn't decided based on free practice performance. The race is what counts, and as we saw at the last race anything could happen. Vettel has got a lot of work to do tomorrow. Hamilton won't have it easy either, and even if he runs of in to the distance his car still has to go the distance.

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adrianjordan
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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godlameroso wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 05:58
The next Mercedes favorable track is Suzuka, COTA and Mexico are toss ups, and could go either way, true Mexico has long straights, but it also has low drag, and downforce makes a bigger difference, not to mention all the low and mid speed corners favor Ferrari. COTA has a mix of everything and the Mercedes has areas where it's better, and Ferrari is faster in other areas so too close to call. Brazil is a Mercedes track, and Abu-Dhabi, I see again as a Ferrari track despite the two long straights, although Hamilton is mighty around there. Mercedes is definitely sitting pretty at the moment, but there are still 5 races to play 5 x 7 = 35, the lead is 28 points so there's everything to play for, all it takes is one mistake on Hamilton's part and that advantage can disappear.
COTA doesn't favour a team, so much as it favours Hamilton!! He's won 4 out of the 5 races held there!!
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PlatinumZealot
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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GPR-A wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 19:45

- Couldn't really go for the kill in Russia and Austria. (Atleast Lewis did it in Spain).


You need to excel against the odds and deliver when it was least expected of you. The year has put both Lewis and Vettel against the odds and it's only Lewis who has delivered.
Hmm... you made me think... The three times Vettel has faced Lewis on the same piece of track this year, Lewis came out on top. In Barcelona, Baku and Spa Vettel was in the perfect position to put Lewis away and he just couldn't pull it off.
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Fulcrum
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 04:26
GPR-A wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 19:45

- Couldn't really go for the kill in Russia and Austria. (Atleast Lewis did it in Spain).


You need to excel against the odds and deliver when it was least expected of you. The year has put both Lewis and Vettel against the odds and it's only Lewis who has delivered.
Hmm... you made me think... The three times Vettel has faced Lewis on the same piece of track this year, Lewis came out on top. In Barcelona, Baku and Spa Vettel was in the perfect position to put Lewis away and he just couldn't pull it off.
Granted, in Baku Vettel had a brain fade, but the other races?

Barcelona, Hamilton pulled off a DRS assisted pass down a 1km long straight with the benefit of softer compound tyres, and the inherently more powerful Mercedes engine, after a VSC period in which Ferrari managed to lose several seconds of Vettel's advantage.

Spa, the only instances Vettel had a realistic chance of passing Hamilton were at restarts, without DRS assistance. Hamilton's defensive positioning was textbook, no real opportunity to pass.

In spite of the above expressed sentiments, I do concur that Hamilton has been the more impressive of the two - especially when things have really mattered.

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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Fulcrum wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 08:52
In spite of the above expressed sentiments, I do concur that Hamilton has been the more impressive of the two - especially when things have really mattered.
I think this is the general consensus, but it has been very close between the two and for the most part they've both driven superbly. Vettel's Baku & Singapore incidents have been his biggest mistakes and have probably cost him the championship.

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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Cannonballer wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 06:41
Phil wrote:
29 Sep 2017, 14:49
Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?
Of course the odds will have changed with new information. I would, but I no longer think it would be massively profitable. But that has no bearing on the profitability of the bet, and the odds of Vettel winning, when I offered it.
Phil wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 21:40
Diesel wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 13:05
Phil wrote:
29 Sep 2017, 14:49
Would you still offer me the 3:1 after todays Malaysian FP2 practice session?
What should we offer now?
Funny. I was curious to see if anyone would man up or not. Turns out, no one did.

Yet Malaysia proved my point perfectly. That W08 is according to Mercedes own assessment a diva. It has a very narrow operating window and when it doesnt work, they struggle. FP2 and FP3 proved this nicely on what many labeled ‘a Mercedes track’ and demonstrates how quickly the tide could turn when things dont run according to plan.

They could have just as well been 5th at best today, meanwhile Ferrari (sans unfortunate engine failures) shows what a steadily strong contender they are.

Christmas came early today. If Hamilton extends his lead further tomorrow it will hurt Vettels chances double as the gap will increase with a GP less on the table.
How can you say that I failed to man up? I posted that I would still give you 3:1, but I did not think that it would be as profitable as it was prior to FP2. You never responded. I was quite willing to offer you 3:1 on Vettel becoming WDC. +EV bets like that are hard to come by...

Events that occurred after the odds were made, like the events in Free Practice and Qualifying, are irrelevant when evaluating those odds.
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PlatinumZealot
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Yet nother vettel brinfade that will cost him again.. Clattering into stroll surely will cost him a gearbox!
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Fulcrum
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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And some embarrassment. Who's the cucumber now?

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Phil
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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TAG wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 21:52
But the whole point is they weren't 5th, they figured out how to make it work, at least Lewis did.
They did? Didn't look like it - looked exactly as what was described in my post. The car either works flawless or it doesn't. Lauda described it that their car has a tiny operating window (smaller than their strongest opponents). When you hit it, it's brilliantly quick, but it can easily move out of that window based on how the car acts on the rubber, the temperature, the surface and of course the layout of the track.

As far as permutations go, ironically, Vettel lost less points to Hamilton today coming 4th to Hamilton 2nd than if Hamilton had won the race and Vettel came 2nd. Assuming many thought this was going to be a Mercedes track, this result should be quite worrying. Ferrari had fantastic pace, Mercedes did not. This was a good day for Vettel/Ferrari, against all odds.

Again: Mercedes by their own assessment (reported by AMuS) will face a difficult task in the last 3 GPs. Mexico will be high altitude and maximum downforce. Brazil could be tricky as well, as could be Abu Dhabi. We will see if Mercedes can solve their issues and hit the operating window. If they don't, Malaysia FP1, FP2, heck even FP3 and the race could show how quickly such a race could turn bad for them.

If both Vettel and Kimi had started from the front (instead of 20th and not at all), I dare say, Hamilton would have been lucky to finish 4th. This race was a bit like Christmas for Hamilton and despite coming 2nd, it counts like a win vs Vettel 2nd (similar point increase).
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NathanOlder
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 04:26
GPR-A wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 19:45

- Couldn't really go for the kill in Russia and Austria. (Atleast Lewis did it in Spain).


You need to excel against the odds and deliver when it was least expected of you. The year has put both Lewis and Vettel against the odds and it's only Lewis who has delivered.
Hmm... you made me think... The three times Vettel has faced Lewis on the same piece of track this year, Lewis came out on top. In Barcelona, Baku and Spa Vettel was in the perfect position to put Lewis away and he just couldn't pull it off.
Rosberg had similar stats to that against Lewis. When it comes to fighting on tracj with a title rival, Lewis seems to excel
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Fulcrum wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:44
And some embarrassment. Who's the cucumber now?
Love it , as would Narain
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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NathanOlder wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 14:11
PlatinumZealot wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 04:26
GPR-A wrote:
30 Sep 2017, 19:45

- Couldn't really go for the kill in Russia and Austria. (Atleast Lewis did it in Spain).


You need to excel against the odds and deliver when it was least expected of you. The year has put both Lewis and Vettel against the odds and it's only Lewis who has delivered.
Hmm... you made me think... The three times Vettel has faced Lewis on the same piece of track this year, Lewis came out on top. In Barcelona, Baku and Spa Vettel was in the perfect position to put Lewis away and he just couldn't pull it off.
Rosberg had similar stats to that against Lewis. When it comes to fighting on tracj with a title rival, Lewis seems to excel
Rosberg had equal machinery.

Baku, and Spa - no way you can pass those merc's on straights.
Barcelona - faster rubber and DRS

Sorry but IMO Lewis in this era always has an upper hand with that PU behind his back.

Vettel had fair share of kills for position this year

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NathanOlder
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Yeah rosberg did , which makes it even more impressive on Lewis. I remember nearly all the times the 2 went wheel to wheel in 2013-2016 Lewis come out on top nearly always. Like what has happened with Vettel and Lewis this year
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:40
Yet nother vettel brinfade that will cost him again.. Clattering into stroll surely will cost him a gearbox!
Yes, that was totally his fault! I mean what the hell was he doing? :lol:
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