Has Red Bull pissed away the WC?

[zeph]

That proves that either

a) the RBR is a reliable car, or
b) Webber is a miracle-worker who can bring an unreliable POS to the finish even when the great Vettel can't.

Ahem, leaving only two options does not prove anything. Sometimes you flip a coin, and 6 times in a row you get tails each time.

Vettel could just have bad luck with the car breaking and Webber could have good luck with it not breaking.

That's not the point, dude. I'm simply following WB's line of reasoning here.

He argues that the RBR is unreliable because of Vettel's breakdowns.

I'd be happy to hear an alternative explanation on how Webber managed to bring that unreliable car home 15 times out of 17. With points. And his two DNF's were not because of mechanical failure.


I've said that Vettel is a fantastic driver, but to dismiss Webber's achievements this season as 'luck' is nonsensical, to say the least.

I call BS on the whole "RBR is unreliable" thing.

[Giblet]

So we are on the same page then.

Newey does make cars that are fragile and on the edge of what needs to be there to go quick, always has.

If WB could just enjoy the sport as a whole without his head up Vettels arse, maybe he could step far enough back to see patterns.

He can't see the forest for the trees.

[lolzi]

Define "a minor increase", 15 kg xtra at some 300-400 mm above where Webber's ballast would have been?

I'm not trying to be funny or anything with this: Where is the weight of the driver placed when calculating CoG? The seat? The helmet? Or do you have to weigh tiny, tiny "bits" of the driver? What about a driver's arm? How is that mesured?

Oh sh*t, that's a load of question marks. I don't really feel up to re-writing it, so if people could just ignore the awkard way I wrote these questions, I would be glad

[andrew]

I remember hearing years back when the 1996 Ferrari had a habit of eating its engine that part of the reason was that the driver was too fast for the engine. I can sort of see how that could work but is it actually possible? Could Vettel be too fast for the engine or is it just plain ol' bad luck? Any thoughts??

[marcush.]

you guys are simplifying things here.
Luck is NOT part of engineering.It is part of gambling.so if Vettels string of failures is a function of gambling WHY is Webber turning better odds conatantly ? because he is going lower risk ,perhaps?
Or to put it even more blunt:If the RedBull is an engineered part of machinery something (=human factor)is contributing in amore negative factor to Vettels machine which is say 99%identical to webbers machinery...It is very easy.The difference is the people servicing,adjusting and driving the thing.That is NOT throwing a coin and it is not luck or being unlucky.

[LionKing]

Assuming 3 major reliability failure for Red bull in a season. If it is equally likely to hit Webber's or Vettle's car then there is 1/8 chance that all will hit Vettel. I don't think this is a dismissible/negligible probability.

We should also remember that all failures were of different nature. So it is quite possible that the reason is not driver related...

[godlameroso]

RB hasn't pissed away the championship yet, there's still two more races, whoever wins the next two races wins it all.

[marcush.]

Assuming 3 major reliability failure for Red bull in a season. If it is equally likely to hit Webber's or Vettle's car then there is 1/8 chance that all will hit Vettel. I don't think this is a dismissible/negligible probability.

We should also remember that all failures were of different nature. So it is quite possible that the reason is not driver related...

What would you conclude from having 3 failures that are not obviously interrelated ? BadLuck?
I ´m sure my boss would instantly without further discussion arrange for getting my papers readied till lunch the very day when I come up with the claim we had a string of bad luck in our project..

[segedunum]

He argues that the RBR is unreliable because of Vettel's breakdowns.

I'd be happy to hear an alternative explanation on how Webber managed to bring that unreliable car home 15 times out of 17. With points. And his two DNF's were not because of mechanical failure.

Webber might not have had as many mechanical problems in races but he has had them in practice. Did you not understand the coin flipping analogy?

[segedunum]

I ´m sure my boss would instantly without further discussion arrange for getting my papers readied till lunch the very day when I come up with the claim we had a string of bad luck in our project..

That all depends on the project you're working on and how far you're pushing things to various limits. When you're in a position where you're expecting to see a bell curve in terms of success and failure all you're hoping for is that most of the time you'll be sitting in the middle of the curve.

Mean Time Before Failure is a phrase used in a great deal of projects for a great deal of items. It's a phrase that certainly applies to Formula 1.

[segedunum]

so, basically your favourite driver is losing so your looking for excuses as to why this is happening?

heres something to chew on WB

As much as I think Webber has done a superb job this year, love what the bloke stands for and would dearly love to see him win this year's championship, Vettel is a good guy too and you can't be other than impressed by his current form under pressure.

For the second successive race there was just seven hundredths of a second between the pair in Korean qualifying, which equates to around four metres, or less than the length of a Red Bull RB6 if you prefer.

Every time that happens I feel frustrated on Webber's behalf because, probably, he's done the better job. Why? Because when you're 6ft2ins and at least 10 kilos heavier than the little guy in the other car no matter how drawn your face looks, you can't play with the ballast and optimise set-up as much as he can. It's fractions, but that's all we're talking about.

You can't saw your legs off and the problem is never going to go away but to consistently get that close to someone as quick as Vettel and often beat him, is a damned good effort. Compounding the problem, every time it happens you get lumbered with the dirty side of the grid and are often disadvantaged against the guy starting behind you, which is a rude slap in the face when these cars are as hard to pass as they are.

Well, alas Mark Webber cannot change his physique. Things are the way they are and regardless of whether he is four metres behind Vettel or not he always seems to be behind a lot of the time.

However, it certainly provides food for thought as to just how good Vettel really is. Webber has not exactly had the most happy of histories when it comes to consistency, and I still maintain that what happened to him in Formula 3000 and elsewhere is a pretty strong indicator of where he really is over a season. Leopards don't change their spots and we'd be well advised to remember that when evaluating Vettel and how 'inexperienced' he is. However, at Barcelona, Monaco this season and especially the Nurburgring last season Webber made Vettel look totally and utterly anonymous. There shouldn't be that disparity. If Vettel really is that good then he should always be reasonably close to Webber even when he's behind.

[marcush.]

coin flipping is 50/50 splitting chances .Noone in F1 ,save the human factor in race situations is crazy enough to play the odds in 50/50 .I´m sure ALL decisions are based on being sure things WILL survive and not: lets see if it survives.
So your coin analogy is very nice to mention but cannot represent reality.As we have with two cars in say 30 races 3 dnf/near dnfs due to technical failure ...and you start to call this lack of luck but according to the coin flipping chances would be
that all competitors shouls now converge towards having 50% dnf...not reality.
Historically this was not even true in the 70s or 80s for the top teams .The poor devils like ChrisAmon may have had that 50/50 rate over time ....so you are dragging
a analogy that is not holding up to reality.

[raceman]

No plans to cast Vettel in supporting role

Red Bull Racing boss Christian Horner has declared it is still too early for the team to throw its full weight behind Mark Webber in the title chase and will continue to give Sebastian Vettel an equal shot at becoming world champion.

No support for Webber alone


I think Horner has gone crazy. How much time does he need now to throw team support for Webber?? Wake up Horner, there are only two races remaining for this year's Championship! I guess even after Interlagos, if same kind of situation remains, he will again say it is too early!

[lebesset]

just for once I have to agree with horner ; yes, I know he is just an employee and at the end of the day has to do and say what he is told

but surely it is not necessary to decide yet , part way through the next race would do , surely ; suppose alonso is out of the race early ..does that not change things ?

RB are desperate for vettel to win the WDC ...they are in F1 for marketing reasons , and clearly think that vettel is better for that , only they can calculate the odds that are acceptable to achieve their objective

never forget that , as the mafia say , it's only business

you thought F1 was a sport ? as john McEnroe used to say , you cannot be serious

[segedunum]

coin flipping is 50/50 splitting chances .Noone in F1 ,save the human factor in race situations is crazy enough to play the odds in 50/50 .

Did you..............not understand the bell (distribution curve) analogy........and what on Earth makes you think that Vettel and Red Bull have odds of failure of 50/50?