Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
The EBD ban might make it a bit unpredictable unlike this season which was an evolution of last season. Any one of the big 3 might hit the non-EBD sweet spot, or mess things up.
I believe RBR will be in the title hunt but not dominant as the past two years. I believe McLaren will start off the strongest with Ferrari coming on strong after a race or two. So basically I'm saying the top 3 will all be fighting for the championship with no team clearly dominating. I do however believe Mercedes GP will win a race and be stronger/faster than this year.
richard_leeds wrote:The EBD ban might make it a bit unpredictable unlike this season which was an evolution of last season. Any one of the big 3 might hit the non-EBD sweet spot, or mess things up.
I would add Mercedes to that list, their blown diffuser solution has definitely been subpar this year, and therefore they may lose less with it removed.
The other big unknown is the potential of the McLaren style U sidepod design, and whether any other teams can develop it or if it can give a superior aero package without any EBD (see Silverstone).
Well a 4 hour race. Mercedes to make steady or maybe big improvements,a few podiums maybe many on merit. Race win,I hope but that is pure wishful thinking. Cold Logic says W03 would not be a championship worthy car.
I would be very surprised if RB8 is the fastest again & very VERY VERY shocked if Vettel wins WDC. RB5//6/7 have all been similar & run its course. I think they have reached the peak of evolution.
Ferrari without EBD was perhaps the quickest as Silverstone showed,Mclaren suffered massively. I think it's a toss up between either of the 2. Ferrari or Mclaren will start with the strongest car & the other will be 2nd fastest of very close. That is my guess.
If Ferrari & Mclaren have the 2 most quickest cars very similar on pace then I see Alonso walking away with Massa as his side-kick from the very 1st race. Mclaren will split the points between Jenson & Hamilton.
For me - Alonso becomes a 3 times champion & Button comes 2nd.
Mr.S wrote:I would be very surprised if RB8 is the fastest again ... they have reached the peak of evolution.
...
Ferrari or Mclaren will start with the strongest car & the other will be 2nd fastest of very close.
That's a bold statement. McLaren & Ferrari need a huge development leap to close the gap to RB, let alone have any dominance (or RB will need to get something badly wrong).
Im tipping Status Quo regards the top 3. Ferrari will be closer than they have been for this season the only caveat.
For Mercedes I think we will see steady progress from around 1 second behind at the start of the season, through to around 0.5 seconds off the pace come the end of the season.
An intriguing thread. I do not mean to be negative, but I wish some of you would back up your predictions with some reasons ("because"). (scarlet and richard_leeds did make some attempt).
For myself, I believe RBR will again be very strong, because Newey always seems to excel when facing a new set of rules -- and banning EBD (IMO) constitutes a pretty significant change.
I think McL will be strong again, but they have two potential negatives:
1) McL often seem to be almost desperately flailing around for the "Hot New Thing," rather than follow a Newey-like steady development of a solid initial design.
2) Hamilton could be a distraction. He is an outstanding driver, but seems to lack the professional maturity of some of the other top drivers.
Ferrari is the unknown. They also seem to "flail" about a bit, and may also lack a strong technical leader. I'd like to see Byrne in full-time, undisputed control, but I don't think that will happen.
M-B will get better IF Brawn can harness and direct all the technical hot shots they have on staff. Better, but few if any wins, and not yet ready to threaten to win WCC or WDC. Too much ground to make up.
Enzo Ferrari was a great man. But he was not a good man. -- Phil Hill
donskar - to be fair Hamilton wasn't too bad las race. I agree that Newey's probably the singular best out there at dealing with rule changes; but usually that applies to rule changes that allow creativity to step in rather than restrictions.
I agree that Red Bull will probably still be strong; and probably strongest (albeit not by much) but yeah
In my perfect world where there are wedding cakes made of bacon and an F1 race in California, RBR would take both championships with Webber WDC.
Long post, read at own discretion.
However, I predict a much closer race than next year for the following reasons:
RBR
- They will always strive to be dominant, anything less would be detrimental to them in the long run. As a team, they want to ride this success as far as they can. As such, within their means, they will throw what they can into Newey's design. Be it conservatively or radically different from the RB7, the RB8, and the team, will be honed to mortal perfection
- The big factor will be how the drivers will be during the 2012 season. As one can imagine, there is pressure to have Mark move out to make room for a new Red Bull driver from the ranks. Will this put pressure on the team to help Mark win more GPs? Perhaps even push to have him win the WDC and retire on a high? Or will Helmut Marko and Mantezcwhitz (sp?) and the team want to maintain the UTTER domination they've had this year? I'm thinking the latter. More Vettel wins as soon as possible in the season.
- Mid-season testing will be a player in terms of Mclaren and Ferrari throwing their weight towards upgrades, but I think Red Bull will gain only a smaller advantage compared to them. Their best work comes from being able to think ahead of the competition, forcing them to clamor for a solution (as seen in 2010 and 2011). RBR may very well commit to gaining a high points advantage early on before the testing session and may struggle through the rest of the season.
Mclaren
- With the time and resources committed at this point to the -27, they will be hard-pressed to make a real contender at the start. However, with the mid-season test, they could be investing in a cavalcade of upgrades now, to be tested at that session. It is the resources that Mclaren (and Ferrari) have that will make next season a lot closer. Knowing the changes in regulation and the opportunity to test out packages, Mclaren could up the technical game and make a surge through the European (plus Canadian) GPs.
- As for the drivers, they have a good mix between Jenson and Lewis. Lewis though, will have a lot to prove for himself after this "down" year. Jenson will, most likely, provide consistent points and occasional top finishes, but it will be Lewis - after some major growth during the off-season - that could be the major trump card. Lewis - for all intensive purposes - pushes the car and car development. That power, once controlled, can bring out some solid wins. The worse thing to happen for RBR is for Lewis to have a "Vettel 2010, sans WDC" moment and make great strides in improving his form on a personal and professional level. It'll mean smoother - yet aggressive - actions on the field and more support for and from the team. Every team needs that galvanizing driver that can whip up energy from his own gusto. Button, as calm and collected as he is, just feels a little beige.
Ferrari
- In terms of car development, 2012 could be a banner year. The 2011 car has just not been on pace all year. The steps taken starting now by the team should lead to an improved car and, with the mid-season testing, they can do the same as Mclaren and invest in a slew of packages to test that will prepare them for the rest of the season.
- Drivers: Massa will either step up and really contribute to the development of the car and the race pace, or he will feel worse and worse about Alonso. It is my hope for the former, but some of the drive from the latter. Alonso, I'm afraid, may be slipping into his habit from Mclaren and Renault where he could just pack it all in if he doesn't feel he is reaching his full potential in a bad car. While there is really nowhere else for him to go, his fatalistic "I give up" is indicative of how he feels about the team at this point in the season. Despite this, Ferrari will pull through in next year to really challenge Mclaren and RBR, particularly in the back 3/4 of the season. They are working on the car now. They have the mid-season test session, and Alonso is a good driver that can help develop and improve race pace with the engineers.
For both Ferrari and Mclaren: they both have a lot to prove. After what can only be described as utter domination by RBR, the pedigree, the tradition, and the heritage of the two top teams need to be avenged.
---And some other teams---
Mercedes
- Between Schumi and Rosberg, they have two very good drivers, the issue really is, as donskar pointed out, honing the technical team to create a solid car. Beautiful nose, tight body, but just doesn't have the race pace needed. I think the staffing and personnel issues their facing this coming break will hinder development to the point where they may not get race wins, but they will make the podium. If I were Brawn, I'd place more emphasis on gelling the team in 2012, and, armed with a unified and familiarized technical and racing staff, they can charge into 2013 as real contenders.
Force India
- No idea how they'll do. But I wish them the best because DiResta and Sutil and the team have been making great strides. I hope that they have a good battle with Mercedes throughout next season, because someone else has really fallen off the pace...
Renault
- Mired by the Lotus debacle, and neither Heidfeld nor Petrov serving as anchor for the team, Renault desperately needs to whip themselves back into form. They are currently where they are in the standings solely from good performance in the beginning of the season that has dropped off considerably. They will move away from anything like the forward-exhausts and focus on a more conservative, but refined vehicle for 2012.
- I pray for Kubica's return. He is a great driver and, with the desire to prove he hasn't gotten "Massa complex," he will push the team and whoever his teammate is to dice it up with the top boys again.
Toro Rosso
- Making gains through the season, with a great result in Korea, Toro Rosso will aim to duel with the Force Indias, Renaults, and Mercs. Car development has been progressing, and, hopefully, Alguesuari and Buemi can both improve as both drivers and car developers. I think the midfield will be particularly close in 2012 because the latter half have been getting better while the front half have stalled out.
Sauber
- I predict that Toro Rosso will pip Sauber for 7th and, in turn, Sauber will get a swift kick in the pants to improve themselves for 2012. They may not make it to the likes of Mercedes, but after Kobayashi's poor form in Japan, they will want to get them to a point where they can more reliably perform among the STR and FI cars.
Williams
- I haven't heard much or read much about the William's car nor team development this year, but it is my hope that they can pull themselves back up. Hopefully the mid-season testing session will allow more time behind the wheel for Maldonado, as well as Perez and the other rookie drivers, to give them a better stand on the track.
---The End...Teams---
Lotus-Caterham (Or Team Lotus, or Lotus AirAsia, etc. etc.)
- I predict that they will improve from the 2011 car and Jarno and Heikki will earnestly mix it with the Williams.
Virgin
- Mid-season testing will give more wheel time to their rookies and more time to develop their cars as they are working through it. The wind tunnel and Mclaren partnership should pay dividends towards creating a bit of parity with the Malay-Lotus (Loti?)
HRT
- If they have the money, then I demand that they develop their own chassis instead of one from Dallara. I can't help but think of the HRT car as nothing more than a slightly more competitive GP2 car.
bhallg2k wrote:I'll watch even fewer races than I watched this year.
With the BBC/Sky deal, it looks likely that a lot of people will watch fewer races!
Hate to moan, but what happened to all the F1 fans in UK, the "official country of motorsport"? Does everybody else have Sky already or was planning to get it anyway? After all the buzz, the e-petition is stuck to little more than 30000 signatures for a while now. With this rate, it will never get to 100000 before August.
As far as I am concerned, if the deal goes ahead and I can't find a good "link" to watch races online, I will stop following F1 altogether. I can't see the point in watching half the races only. Might as well use my time playing F1 2011 on the ps3. In which case, Ferrari and Alonso will get the titles!
The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents. H.P.Lovecraft
