Vettel starts the GP of Malaysia on primes

[mnmracer]

I don't know how many of you have noticed, but Sebastian Vettel set his time in Q3 on the prime tires, and will start on the harder compound tomorrow. A few considerations I've made:

- Vettel's 1:36.631 is actually the fastest time on prime tyres we've seen this weekend. Raikkonen's fastest time in Q2 was 1:36.715, although I'm not sure if that was on soft or on hard.
- Where most drivers seem to be almost a second faster on soft against their hard times, Vettel is only 0.4 seconds off pole and just 0.25 off Button and Schumacher.
- Pirelli expects the soft-starters to make at least three pit stops, as Kuala Lumpur is heavy on the tyres. They actually expected more drivers to qualify on hard.

So what do you guys will happen tomorrow? Is this a brilliant strategy that will pay off? Being relatively close to the front in time, while on primes, will he have a shot at the win? Or is it all moot and will he be brawling with Raikkonen for and Schumacher for the last place on the podium?

Considering the race speed he showed in Australia, and the fact he's quite close in time while on hard tyres, I think he's got a good shot at mingling with the McLarens in the long run, though it will take some time to pan out. I think he will go prime-prime-soft and use his tyre-saving skills to make for some interesting last laps, either for p2 or maybe (maybe) for p1.

[beelsebob]

None of the above. He won't save a pit stop, but he'll challenge for the win by virtue of having a fast race car, and simply running the strategy backwards so that he ends of softs much faster than everyone else.

[bhall]

Not for nothing, but there's a whole other thread for this kind of stuff. It's labeled Malaysian GP.

I don't think a separate circle-jerk for Vettel is needed.

[Websta]

The performance gap between the medium and hard tyre is not worth a second. I heard the commentators say something like 2-3 tenths. It is a lot closer than last year.

[raymondu999]

Paul Hembery said a while back 5 tenths; but that was his prediction rather than based on data.

[CHT]

Starting on prime will give vettel more options for tomorrow race. What strategy to go for will really depends on how the race unfold itself.

[raymondu999]

Unless if it rains before the race - or maybe after the first few laps.

[Pup]

If it were a better strategy, then you'd see more teams doing it. The consensus of the teams is that the prime tires get chewed up almost as quickly as the options on a full load of fuel. It may be a viable strategy if you're just competing for points, but if you're after a podium, it's not the way to go. Vettel was just quicker on the primes than the options, like he said.

The trade off will be a poorer start, slower pace, and a more difficult time passing if he gets held up. Its a big risk.

[raymondu999]

If it were a better strategy, then you'd see more teams doing it.

I think most teams are gunning for track position through good quali rather than a better race pace.

The consensus of the teams is that the prime tires get chewed up just as quickly as the options on a full load of fuel.

I don't remember any of that being said... have a source? (I'm not saying it's not true; just haven't heard it being said in the past)

Vettel was just quicker on the primes than the options, like he said.

He actually said his setup couldn't maximise the options. It wasn't that he was faster - it was that the gap, for him, was tiny.

The trade off will be a poorer start, slower pace, and a more difficult time passing if he gets held up. Its a big risk.

The trade off I think is that at the last phase of the race the guys who ran the option first will have track position. But the prime starters will be quicker.

[SchumiSutil]

But the prime starters will be quicker.

Not at the start. As we saw again with Jean Eric Vergne in Australia, option tyres are what you need to have a good getaway.
Moreover, it's quite a long way from P5 to the first corner, so if it's a dry start, expect Vettel to lose some positions. He will have a tough time to retake Nico, but as we saw in Australia he can do that. Though, the Red Bull is 12 km/h slower on the straights than the Mercedes.

[raymondu999]

But the prime starters will be quicker.

Not at the start.

Hence why I said at the last phase of the race

[SchumiSutil]

Sorry, I read too quickly.
Anyway, interesting strategy. The Red Bull seems to be very fast on primes (Webber fastest in Q1) as it was the case in Melbourne.
Red Bull should fare well in race but I still think Mclaren will dominate.

[raymondu999]

I'm not convinced they even are quicker on the primes. Webber possibly could have had his engine turned up etc. I mean he was on the bubble in Q1 - so he might have been pushing 100% and have everything set to 10 to allow him to get through. McLaren might have just pushed enough.

[Pup]

I don't remember any of that being said... have a source? (I'm not saying it's not true; just haven't heard it being said in the past)

...

The trade off I think is that at the last phase of the race the guys who ran the option first will have track position. But the prime starters will be quicker.

I don't know if I could dig it up to be honest. It's something I remember from the first year of no refueling.

I think that if there's an advantage, it will be in the first stint, since the rest can run softs in the last stint also if they want.

I mean, maybe Seb can make it work. But historically at least this has never been an ideal strategy for anyone except the guys further back in the field. With the front runners, it's almost always a fall-back, when they know that due to pace or penalties they're going to be farther back on the grid and caught up in traffic regardless. And I'd argue that it's really only a better option in races where passing is difficult.

In other words, I'm arguing that for front runners, starting on hards is typically an admission that things aren't going well, and it's worth playing a wild card and hoping to luck into a better position.

That, or we can believe that Seb is really faster on the primes. Personally, I think that's the more likely reason. Either way, it's at the least a bad omen for his race I think.

But hey, I usually get proven wrong with these things, so let's see what happens tomorrow.

[raymondu999]

And I'd argue that it's really only a better option in races where passing is difficult.

I actually think it's the other way around. You need a clear cut passing ability to make it work. Why? Otherwise when you're inthe crossover - when your'e on the softs and they're on the hards; or if that never happens; then the last stint - you'll be massively quick but without track position. It would be like a race-long "undercut" in a way.