Toto Wolf - Formula 1 should be leading the pack in sustainable fuels and biofuels instead of electric

[RedNEO]

Formula 1's strategy, meanwhile, is to work on sustainable fuels and double down on hybrid internal combustion engine cars that that are going to remain on the road long after the new vehicle sales have been banned in many developed countries by their governments. How does that look for manufacturers? And will you still be producing any internal combustion engine vehicles 10, 15 plus years from now?

TW: “I think what we've seen in the past few years is that you cannot predict where the industry is going to stand in 2030. The data today, and even the most dynamic ones show that rather than having 30% electric vehicles by 2025, we're going to have 30% of electric vehicles by 2030. We're seeing a big push in biofuels and synthetic fuels, which would reduce the emissions on petrol cars tremendously if the energy comes from sustainable sources. So I believe you can't really judge today where the road car industry is going to stand in 2030. And there are premium auto manufacturers such as Daimler who are still investing into internal combustion engines, because in combination with these sustainable fuels, it is a much better carbon footprint than some of the electric vehicles today, where the energy resource is provided by coal or gas.

In that respect, I believe that in Formula 1, it is about technology transfer, we should be leading the pack with sustainable fuels and biofuels in collaboration with our fuel suppliers, in collaboration with our mothership companies, and at the same time being open to technology transfer in the electrical field, but we need to have a holistic view. Formula 1 is an entertainment platform that is based on cutting edge technology. We need to look at energy density for applications in the road car field. And we need to look at power density for the entertainment factor Formula 1. And there's not an easy answer to that question.”

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... n=widget-6

As I said in another thread F1 and the car industry is heading in the other direction that is not electric and Toto is now flat out confirming it.

Since this will have an effect on the 2025 engine rules I’ve added a poll to get an idea what people’s own view think this means.

UPDATE: FIA INTRODUCES SUSTAINABLE FUEL INTO FORMULA 1 AND COMMITS TO BECOMING CARBON NEUTRAL FROM 2021 AND NET ZERO BY 2030

https://www.fia.com/news/fia-introduces ... d-net-zero

[DChemTech]

Of course Toto is right that ICE's won't be instantly gone. Yet, their development will be marginalized and their market share will drop consistently. If F1 is about tech transfer, should it be developing in the final steps of a mature, shrinking technology? Or should it develop ahead of the curve of novel technology with a strong future perspective? That's essentially the choice you have to make. In my view, if you select the former, that's essentially accepting that F1 is no longer going to be a technology development sport, and instead turns into an entertainment platform solely. Which is fine, but then we should be honest about that. And in that case, biofuels should be part of it, sure. But I expect very little application of biofuels in consumer cars & ICE in consumer cars in the long term. In aviation, yes. Perhaps shipping. Maybe long-haul trucks, although I give fuel cells a bigger chance there.

[Big Tea]

I think it is getting obvious where vehicles are heading, it is just a matter of how they get there.
There will be vehicle that are just electric, but special use vehicles such as public transport or city centre, but the ICE has taken a turn and is looking more acceptable, especially with large companies using -recaptured carbon to produce ultra low emissions, but by the same token it is also obvious how useful electric cars are and how much better to drive an electric or hybrid is than a rev range limited ICE drive.

For my way of looking at it, the short term future at least is Hybrid with ultra low emission ICE and the ability to cover short trips in cities on electic only.

So, as Toto says, why not let F1 lead development as they have with energy recovery, but simplified regs that will be easier to pass on the road cars.

(one such system edited, wrong link

[RedNEO]

Personally I feel this is definitely a side step away from electric being the focus and it maybe completely out of the new regs if the 2025 engines have a much better carbon footprint as Toto says.

Edit: *poll added*

[RedNEO]

I think it is getting obvious where vehicles are heading, it is just a matter of how they get there.
There will be vehicle that are just electric, but special use vehicles such as public transport or city centre, but the ICE has taken a turn and is looking more acceptable, especially with large companies using -recaptured carbon to produce ultra low emissions, but by the same token it is also obvious how useful electric cars are and how much better to drive an electric or hybrid is than a rev range limited ICE drive.

For my way of looking at it, the short term future at least is Hybrid with ultra low emission ICE and the ability to cover short trips in cities on electic only.

So, as Toto says, why not let F1 lead development as they have with energy recovery, but simplified regs that will be easier to pass on the road cars.

(one such system edited, wrong link

Yup fully agree. Thanks for that video that’s very interesting.

[RedNEO]

F1 is going with bio-fuels from 2021!

https://www.fia.com/news/fia-introduces ... d-net-zero

[wesley123]

A large part of Wolff's point seems to be that the energy used to charge the batteries come from dirty sources. While this is true, this also is shifting. Thus, Wolff's argument becomes less and less valid over time. In 2025 this argument will be much less valid.

F1 is largely marketing in this regard and could supercharge the shift to sustainable resources, and in my opinion should do so.

[NL_Fer]

Synthetic fuels are fine, but continue with internal combustion, does not mean they need to be the most efficient on the planet. It doesn’t look like current manufacturers are keen on investing in another 600 bilion ICE project.

So more traditional ICE which revs and makes noise, should be fine. Combine it with some modulair hybrid tech, like a standard exhaust heat recovery and brake recovery and all parties should be cool.

[gruntguru]

Disagree.
The limited future that combustion engines have in road cars will depend on continued efficiency improvement. For F1 to keep combustion engines and remain relevant the focus will need to be efficiency. Fuel flow limits are here to stay.

[Just_a_fan]

ICE is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In 20 years the ICE will be a dinosaur used only by people with classic cars. The rest will be in battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars.

Anyone who thinks F1 will go down the route of loud ICE motors again is going to be very disappointed.

[godlameroso]

ICE is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In 20 years the ICE will be a dinosaur used only by people with classic cars. The rest will be in battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars.

Anyone who thinks F1 will go down the route of loud ICE motors again is going to be very disappointed.

Do you know something we don't regarding batteries? As of now, that's the limiting factor, the power source is terrible compared to an ICE. Gasoline is lighter, and has much higher energy density than batteries. When you run out of fuel, you put more in, and in about 3-10 minutes(if you stop for snacks), you're good to go. If you can make synthetic alcohol based fuels than have similar power density to gasoline they'll burn cleaner and reduce pollution. It'll also make way for more efficient combustion engines because alcohol has naturally higher octane rating than neet petrol.

For batteries to be a better alternative to developing the ICE, they would have to weigh half as much, have twice as much power and charge in half the time, for half the cost of 2015 commercial level batteries. Since then in 5 years we've done maybe 10% of those 3 goals, given diminishing returns, limits of current battery chemistry, we can probably do 30% in 15-20 years. There would have to be a chemistry or manufacturing breakthrough to accelerate that time frame, otherwise the ICE still has another 50 years, easy.

[gruntguru]

For batteries to be a better alternative to developing the ICE, they would have to weigh half as much, have twice as much power and charge in half the time, for half the cost of 2015 commercial level batteries. Since then in 5 years we've done maybe 10% of those 3 goals, given diminishing returns, limits of current battery chemistry, we can probably do 30% in 15-20 years. There would have to be a chemistry or manufacturing breakthrough to accelerate that time frame, otherwise the ICE still has another 50 years, easy.

Battery-electric cars are already competing with ICE in every category eg

Porsche Taycan
Mercedes EQC
Tesla Model 3
Tesla Roadster (Mk2)

While they can certainly improve in they ways you mention - they don't HAVE TO.

They only need to get cheaper.

[godlameroso]

For batteries to be a better alternative to developing the ICE, they would have to weigh half as much, have twice as much power and charge in half the time, for half the cost of 2015 commercial level batteries. Since then in 5 years we've done maybe 10% of those 3 goals, given diminishing returns, limits of current battery chemistry, we can probably do 30% in 15-20 years. There would have to be a chemistry or manufacturing breakthrough to accelerate that time frame, otherwise the ICE still has another 50 years, easy.

Battery-electric cars are already competing with ICE in every category eg

Porsche Taycan
Mercedes EQC
Tesla Model 3
Tesla Roadster (Mk2)

While they can certainly improve in they ways you mention - they don't HAVE TO.

They only need to get cheaper.

Only one of those cars is even close to attainable by an average person, and if they live in a building and don't have a garage, they better invest in a hecking long extension cable.

[Ringleheim]

ICE is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In 20 years the ICE will be a dinosaur used only by people with classic cars. The rest will be in battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars.

Anyone who thinks F1 will go down the route of loud ICE motors again is going to be very disappointed.

Couldn't disagree more; if F1 ever wakes up and realizes it is a wasteful form of sports entertainment, screaming cars will be back. The spectacle would be increased that much more if the only place you'll see/hear ICE as it the F1 race.

[nzjrs]

ICE is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In 20 years the ICE will be a dinosaur used only by people with classic cars. The rest will be in battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars.

Do you honestly believe this time frame? Or was there a little hyperbole in your post?