F1 MATHS: The data reveals Hamilton can still produce race-winning pace

Despite his struggles over the course of the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend, the data shows that Lewis Hamilton had much more to offer at the Hungaroring. F1Technical's senior writer Balazs Szabo delivers his latest analysis.

Ferrari endured mixed emotions in Saturday’s qualifying at the Hungaroring. Lewis Hamilton failed to secure anything better than a P12 on the grid after struggling for pace in constantly-changing weather conditions.

On the other side of the garage, Charles Leclerc also looked uncomfortable behind the wheel of his SF-25, albeit he progressed into the final part of qualifying. With a storming lap, he grabbed pole position on a track where he never really felt himself competitive.

Come the race, the Monegasque had a great start to maintain the lead into Turn 1. During his first stint, he looked very competitive and was able to build up a margin from his closest rival Oscar Piastri.

Although he appeared to be strong during his second stint as well, his pace unexpectedly faded in the last segment of the Mogyoród race which saw him fall back to P4, ending a disappointing day at the Hungaroring.

His team-mate Hamilton started from the hard compound, but spent most of the race in traffic.

Although he looked strong even on used tyres in free air, he found himself in heavy traffic on his second set of tyres again, which meant that he was ended up down in P12, the position which he started the 70-lap race from.

Lewis Hamilton's struggles at the Hungaroring are well-documented. The British driver failed to make it out in Q2, with his result leaving him in P12 on the grid for the Hungarian Grand Prix where overtaking is usually at a premium even if the situation slightly improved since the introduction of the ground-effect cars.

Wait, but did Hamilton miss a lot to Leclerc over a qualifying lap? During the opening segment of qualifying, the seven-time world champion was only 151 thousands of a second slower than his team-mate, whilst that gap grew to 247 thousands of a second in Q2.

However, this difference was enough for Hamilton to miss out on Q3 by a fraction - a 15-thousand gap separated him from Sauber's Gabriel Bortoleto, who finished Q2 in tenth place.

His disappointing starting position which was a result of a slight lack of pace and some misfortune meant the seven-time F1 champion spent the majority of the race stuck in traffic, and was unable to improve his starting position when he crossed the finish line.

When analysing the boxplot diagram generated from Hamilton's lap times, it is clear to see the true nature of the British driver's issues at the Hungarian Grand Prix.

The range of Hamilton’s boxplot is not a surprise given the difference between his potential performance and his pace behind much slower cars. Having stuck in traffic meant that the range of his boxplot is the widest of all drivers. The Briton was losing well over a second stuck behind the Haas of Oliver Bearman and the Racing Bulls of Isack Hadjar for a long period of time.

The Haas driver pitted on Lap 30 and the French racer on Lap 33 which finally allowed Hamilton to unleash the speed he had available. The Stevenage-born driver went 1.5 seconds quicker on his first tour in free air compared to his laps when he was stuck in traffic.

It is also worth taking a look at the relation between Hamilton’s mean and median lap time. The latter is placed well above the former, offering a further confirmation how much Hamilton was hindered by slower cars which robbed him the opportunity of unleashing his true pace.

Understandably, Hamilton cut a dejected figure after climbing out out his Ferrari SF25 which followed Saturday’s early evening’s post-qualifying interview in which he suggested that the Scuderia might need to find another driver.

Hamilton might have struggled to unlock his true pace in qualifying both at Spa-Francorchamps and at the Hungaroring which had a massive effect on how he performed on Sunday, but the data shows that the driver, who still holds the record for most wins at the Hungarian Grand Prix, had the pace to compete for podium places.

With the seven-time F1 champion pursuing a one-stop strategy, his performance could be compared to Lando Norris’ pace, who also elected to pit only once at the Mogyoród race.

Having qualified himself third, the McLaren man dropped further behind at the start, losing two spots to George Russell and Fernando Alonso. Norris spent the opening twenty laps behind the Aston Martin driver and then the Mercedes racer, but on Lap 20, he found himself in the lead.

Driving in free air between Lap 20 and 30, Norris produced an average lap time of 1m22.1. Although it was impressive, Hamilton looked very competitive in free air as well. Although he ‘got’ the chance of unleashing his pace without any traffic affecting him much later – between Lap 34 and 42 -, the British driver produced a mean lap time of 1m22.45s, which was – considering his older, worn hards – was a reflection of his true pace.

Despite his eye-catching pace on the heavily-worn white-walled Pirellis, Hamilton was not able to fully capitalize on his mediums in the second half of the race.

The seven-time F1 champion completed his pit stop on Lap 43, rejoining the track 5.8 seconds away from Alpine’s Pierre Gasly. He was able to close in on the Frenchman within only five laps, and overtook the Alpine driver on Lap 50.

Just a lap later, Hamilton went past the Haas of Esteban Ocon, and found himself 1.2 seconds adrift of Carlos Sainz whom he replaced at Ferrari. The Briton picked off the Spaniard a lap later, and found himself six seconds away from the Racing Bulls of Isack Hadjar.

It took only seven laps for Hamilton to close in on the Paris-born driver, but as Hajdar himself had DRS because of Mercedes rookie driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Hamilton’s great comeback drive stalled and came home in a disappointing 12th place.