F1 MATHS: Why did ten drivers opt for a single-stop strategy despite the pre-race simultions?

The Hungarian Grand Prix ended in a one-two finish for McLaren, its fourth in a row and the sixth this season, its 56th in total. Lando Norris secured the team’s 200th win, second only to Ferrari on 248 on the all-time winner’s list. F1Technical's senior writer Balazs Szabo delivers his strategy anaylsis.

For the last round ahead of the summer break, Formula One's sole tyre manufacturer Pirelli supplied teams with compounds from the softer end of its six-compound range: C3 as Hard, C4 as Medium and C5 as Soft. Up until last year, these would have been the softest tyres of all, but this year, the C6 was introduced.

The Milan-based tyre manufacturer has explained that the brand-new compound "would be too extreme a choice for a track that exerts this level of energy density on the tyres for every lap. Although the actual loads are not that high in absolute terms, the fact that the lap is short means that it increases cumulatively and significantly with each lap."

The experience and data from the previous season had indicated that the two-stop strategy would emerge as the fastest approach to last Sunday's Hungarian Grand Prix, but the drop in ambient and track temperatures influenced teams' preferences.

Commenting on the difference between the one- and two-stop strategy, Pirelli's Motorsport Director Mario Isola stated: "On paper the two-stop was quicker, but the cooler, by about ten degrees, temperatures compared to Friday free practice, slightly closed the gap between the two options, also in part because thermal degradation was reduced for all three compounds compared to what we saw two days ago.

"Honestly, we still felt the two-stop was best, you just need to look at the gap that Alonso built up, in fifth, compared to Russell," the Italian added.

During the 70-lap Mogyoród race, all three compounds were used. On the starting grid, the vast majority of drivers (15) went with the Medium.

The trio of Alex Albon, Carlos Sainz and Nico Hulkenberg chose the Soft, while Lewis Hamilton and Pierre Gasly opted for the Hard. With the white-banded tyres providing significantly less grip, the seven-time world champion's decision proved wrong as he lost two places at the start, and he was unable to exploit the benefits of the harder tyres as he spent the majority of the first stint stuck in traffic.

In terms of strategy, drivers were pretty evenly split with ten going for a one-stop and nine pitting twice. Race winner Lando Norris elected to pit only once. In fact, the British driver had intended to pursue a two-stop strategy, but after losing two places at the start, he wanted to boost his recovery drive with a different strategy than those racing at the sharp end fo the field.

Championship leader Oscar Piastri, Mercedes driver George Russell, Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc and reigning champion Max Verstappen opted for a two-stop strategy, but half of the top ten drivers elected to visit the pit lane only once, which shows that there was very little to chose between the two approaches, with several drivers focusing on track position instead of raw performance.

The longest stint came courtesy of Esteban Ocon who did 55 laps on the Hard, while Gabriel Bortoleto and Liam Lawson went furthest on the Medium (40 laps) with Yuki Tsunoda completing 17 on the Soft.

Explaining why ten drivers elected to pit only once despite the pre-race simulations, Isola said: "The two McLaren drivers were on different strategies, the Englishman going for a one-stop, the Australian two. The exception was Norris, who opted to only stop once, after finding himself fifth after the opening lap.

"The small performance difference between the Medium and Hard along with the clear difficulty in overtaking with cars running pretty similar race pace, made it worth risking an unconventional strategy because at that point, he had nothing to lose.

"All things considered, we still managed to have a race in which different strategies were in play for the win, which made the second half of the race particularly exciting from a tactical point of view, even if not that spectacular in absolute terms."