F1MATHS: What the SQ2–SQ3 delta reveals about the SF‑26 in Miami

Ferrari arrived in Miami with confidence after encouraging long‑run simulations and a car that had shown strong balance on the medium tyre throughout the early part of the weekend.

Ferrari’s Sprint Qualifying performance in Miami revealed a familiar pattern: strong pace on the medium tyre, but a noticeable drop in competitiveness once the field switched to the softs.

The lap‑time data from the ten drivers who reached SQ3 confirms what both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton described afterwards — the SF‑26 was mighty on the yellow‑walled Pirelli medium, yet struggled to extract grip from the red‑walled soft.

Across the field, the time differences between each driver’s best SQ2 and SQ3 laps underline the contrast. Lando Norris improved by 0.854 seconds, Kimi Antonelli by 1.118 seconds, and Oscar Piastri by 0.398 seconds.

Charles Leclerc gained only 0.094 seconds, while Max Verstappen improved by 0.632 seconds. George Russell found 0.410 seconds, Lewis Hamilton 0.223 seconds, Franco Colapinto 0.207 seconds, Isack Hadjar 0.328 seconds, and Pierre Gasly 0.499 seconds. The numbers show that Ferrari’s gains were the smallest among the front‑running teams, confirming the drivers’ post‑session remarks about tyre performance.

The SF‑26’s behaviour on the soft compound mirrored its earlier tendencies this season. On the medium tyre, the car displayed excellent balance and rotation, allowing both drivers to attack corners with confidence.

But when the softs came into play, the operating window narrowed sharply. The rear axle became more sensitive to temperature spikes, and the car lost traction through Miami’s long, loaded corners — particularly in the final sector, where the softs overheated quickly.

Hamilton’s comments after the session captured the uncertainty within the team. “We didn’t really know what to expect,” he admitted. “I had hoped that we would be better, but the car didn’t feel particularly great.”

The seven‑time World Champion added that he had “no idea” whether the new package would perform better at other tracks, conceding: “I thought we would be stronger than we were today. We’ve got to do some work overnight to try and figure out why we’re not that quick. I was hopeful coming in, positive that we could be much higher, but not meant to be.”

Leclerc echoed the sentiment, pointing directly to the tyre behaviour as the main issue. “The upgrades are fine, it’s just that everybody brought upgrades,” he said.

“On our side, today particularly we’ve struggled with tyres – medium were working very well, on the soft it wasn’t a nice feeling, so on that we’ve got to look at it.” His SQ2 lap of 68.333 seconds had been among the best in the field, but his SQ3 improvement of just 0.094 seconds was the smallest of any top‑six driver, confirming Ferrari’s difficulty in extracting grip from the softs.

Leclerc also acknowledged the competitive context. “Mercedes is probably still the car to beat. McLaren did a very big step forward, but I felt like they didn’t optimise their first races of the season, so they were always there but they didn’t put everything together.”

Despite the qualifying frustration, he remained optimistic about Ferrari’s race prospects: “We know that in the race pace we are stronger, but in terms of Qualifying there is still some work to be done.

"I think in Qualifying tomorrow we can try and fine‑tune a little bit and find a bit of performance, but I hope that in the race we can come back in the front. We’ve got the pace to do that, let’s just see if we are able to overtake.”