2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

For ease of use, there is one thread per grand prix where you can discuss everything during that specific GP weekend. You can find these threads here.
Sevach
810
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 4:00 pm

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by Sevach » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:20 am

I think 1 stopper is definitely possible, this years ultra is like a soft from last year in terms of resilience, some teams might try 2 to shake things up.

iotar__
5
User avatar
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2012 11:31 am

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by iotar__ » Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:20 am

Sevach wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:20 am
I think 1 stopper is definitely possible, this years ultra is like a soft from last year in terms of resilience, some teams might try 2 to shake things up.
I will risk prediction that it will be a one stopper

I think this time FIA will bail Hamilton out and his team carry Vettel using Raikkonen as a moving chicane (happened before). Just a guess: to make it sportsmanlike and pure. To quote great thinkers of F1: "tainted championship". You know like Alonso's after Massa would have been but 10 times worse :wink: .

From WIlliams thread: "Teams are required to use at least two days of their in-season testing to run drivers who have not started more than two F1 races. The 36-year-old Paffett,.. "
#-o Another success of F1 rules, they really care about quality of drivers and future.

Phil
406
User avatar
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2012 3:22 pm

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by Phil » Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:06 am

SiLo wrote:
Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:25 pm
I think if we get Ham pole its a Ham win. Bottas pole however, could throw it open again like Bahrain.
Maybe, but I seem to remember that Sochi has a very significant tow. That means pos 2 and 3 could be well within a chance to pass into T2 I think.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter

GPR-A duplicate2
167
User avatar
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:00 am

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by GPR-A duplicate2 » Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:14 am

Sevach wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:20 am
I think 1 stopper is definitely possible, this years ultra is like a soft from last year in terms of resilience, some teams might try 2 to shake things up.
I guess the game of chess between Ferrari and Mercedes wouldn't allow either to go for 1 stopper. If Mercedes qualifies ahead and tries to do a one stopper, Ferrari would pit early to force a two stopper and vice versa. I repeated in an earlier post that, if both wants to do a one stopper, RB would try to do a two stopper with Ultras and would attempt to spoil their party. They would be having an upgraded MGU from renault, so they can expect a bit more grunt. Though we can argue that the tires are more reliable, but it not about the tires anymore.

Bill_Kar
5
Joined: Sun Apr 02, 2017 8:38 am

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by Bill_Kar » Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:28 am

GPR-A wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:14 am
Sevach wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:20 am
I think 1 stopper is definitely possible, this years ultra is like a soft from last year in terms of resilience, some teams might try 2 to shake things up.
I guess the game of chess between Ferrari and Mercedes wouldn't allow either to go for 1 stopper. If Mercedes qualifies ahead and tries to do a one stopper, Ferrari would pit early to force a two stopper and vice versa. I repeated in an earlier post that, if both wants to do a one stopper, RB would try to do a two stopper with Ultras and would attempt to spoil their party. They would be having an upgraded MGU from renault, so they can expect a bit more grunt. Though we can argue that the tires are more reliable, but it not about the tires anymore.
Absolutely spot on.That's what happened in China.So whoever is in the lead, he is obliged to follow the others "just in case".
But, regardless of one stopper or two stopper, Mercedes needs to get their ... together.I won't stand again a Mercedes being undercut by Ferrari.It's getting really annoying.

Phil
406
User avatar
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2012 3:22 pm

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by Phil » Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:53 pm

GPR-A wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:14 am
I guess the game of chess between Ferrari and Mercedes wouldn't allow either to go for 1 stopper. If Mercedes qualifies ahead and tries to do a one stopper, Ferrari would pit early to force a two stopper and vice versa. I repeated in an earlier post that, if both wants to do a one stopper, RB would try to do a two stopper with Ultras and would attempt to spoil their party. They would be having an upgraded MGU from renault, so they can expect a bit more grunt. Though we can argue that the tires are more reliable, but it not about the tires anymore.
I think that really depends on how close they are. The 'undercut' will only work if the car performing it is close enough, e.g. perhaps within 4 seconds depending on how much faster the fresh tire is to gain track position. The bigger the gap, the more time the leading car has to decide if the strategy will be changed or not to still pit and retain the lead.

Assuming Mercedes is the leading car into T1 and wants to attempt a 1-stop race, they could very well do that, even if Ferrari remains close. Imagine at around a quarter race distance, Ferrari is right there within 4 seconds to the leading Mercedes. Ferrari pits and goes for the 2 stop race and undercut.

Mercedes then faces two possibilities:

1.) immediately pit, change to a two stop race, but lose track position (don't see why they would, unless they were on the 2 stop to begin with)

2.) stay on the 1 stop, even if it means the Ferrari who has dropped back is now running at a faster pace, meaning the gap from 25 seconds (or whatever a pit stop costs) is now decreasing. The crucial difference here being; no matter how fast that Ferrari is, they will have to pit again, which will cost them another 25 seconds. So technically, they could speed up right to the rear of that leading Mercedes, they'd still be behind. Assuming Mercedes then stop at the optimal 1-stop point, they'd of course concede track position, but only until that Ferrari pits again. Best case for the 2 stop Ferrari; they'll catch up to the Mercedes before the checkered flag and attempt an overtake on fresher tires.

So no, I don't see how a car that in theory is as quick but without track position could force the leading car to change its strategy. Now, of course, if the leading Mercedes has a larger gap and the contesting car pits early because it's on a different strategy - it would of course be daft to continue on that 1 stop race. To pit then and retain track position is beneficial since you are also protecting against a potential safety car and finding yourself with worse tires vs your direct competitor behind.

The only way I see what you are saying to make any sense, if is there is limited tire wear data and the leading car that is on a 1-stop race is unsure if they can pull off that strategy. The worst thing would be to target a 1-stop and commit to it and later find out that the tires will run out before. I.e. if the aim is to do 40% on the first tire, but the tires go off early, meaning you pit at 35%, you then face that the second tire has to last 5% longer, forcing you to run below whatever delta you calculated in the first place.

The only thing that will change the above in a significant way, is if you have an extraordinary event taking place: For example a VSC or SC phase that decreases the cost of your pit stop. Then it might be beneficial to pit 'early'. Case in point: China or Bahrain.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter

TAG
112
User avatar
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:18 pm
Location: in a good place

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by TAG » Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:20 pm

Don't see anything other than a one stop here, perhaps even with an Ultrasoft/Supersoft strategy.
Countdown to 91: 7 more victories ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sevach
810
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 4:00 pm

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by Sevach » Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:22 pm

Phil wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:53 pm
Snip
Agreed, in Bahrain Mercedes didn't try to cover Vettel (it wouldn't have worked anyways) they were going for a different game until the SC forced their hand.

If not for the penalty they might've also kept Hamilton on track and bet on him resisting Vettel.

f1316
127
Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:36 pm

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by f1316 » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:52 pm

Sevach wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:22 pm
Phil wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:53 pm
Snip
Agreed, in Bahrain Mercedes didn't try to cover Vettel (it wouldn't have worked anyways) they were going for a different game until the SC forced their hand.

If not for the penalty they might've also kept Hamilton on track and bet on him resisting Vettel.
I also agree, but what it means is that you could well have contra-strategies - I.e Mercedes on a one stop and Ferrari on a two (or split within the teams) - which is also very interesting.

Racer X
4
User avatar
Joined: Sun Apr 21, 2013 6:04 pm

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by Racer X » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:12 pm

I predict

Hamilton
Ricciardo
Vettel
Bottas
Max
Kimi
Pérez
Massa
Hulk
Ocon


For the Race.
“With your mind power, your determination, your instinct, and the experience as well, you can fly very high."___Ayrton Senna

Wass85
1
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 9:11 pm

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by Wass85 » Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:34 pm

Whoever leads coming out of the first chicane will likely win the race IMO.

SR71
16
User avatar
Joined: Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:23 pm

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by SR71 » Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:06 am

Phil wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:53 pm
GPR-A wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:14 am
I guess the game of chess between Ferrari and Mercedes wouldn't allow either to go for 1 stopper. If Mercedes qualifies ahead and tries to do a one stopper, Ferrari would pit early to force a two stopper and vice versa. I repeated in an earlier post that, if both wants to do a one stopper, RB would try to do a two stopper with Ultras and would attempt to spoil their party. They would be having an upgraded MGU from renault, so they can expect a bit more grunt. Though we can argue that the tires are more reliable, but it not about the tires anymore.
I think that really depends on how close they are. The 'undercut' will only work if the car performing it is close enough, e.g. perhaps within 4 seconds depending on how much faster the fresh tire is to gain track position. The bigger the gap, the more time the leading car has to decide if the strategy will be changed or not to still pit and retain the lead.

Assuming Mercedes is the leading car into T1 and wants to attempt a 1-stop race, they could very well do that, even if Ferrari remains close. Imagine at around a quarter race distance, Ferrari is right there within 4 seconds to the leading Mercedes. Ferrari pits and goes for the 2 stop race and undercut.

Mercedes then faces two possibilities:

1.) immediately pit, change to a two stop race, but lose track position (don't see why they would, unless they were on the 2 stop to begin with)

2.) stay on the 1 stop, even if it means the Ferrari who has dropped back is now running at a faster pace, meaning the gap from 25 seconds (or whatever a pit stop costs) is now decreasing. The crucial difference here being; no matter how fast that Ferrari is, they will have to pit again, which will cost them another 25 seconds. So technically, they could speed up right to the rear of that leading Mercedes, they'd still be behind. Assuming Mercedes then stop at the optimal 1-stop point, they'd of course concede track position, but only until that Ferrari pits again. Best case for the 2 stop Ferrari; they'll catch up to the Mercedes before the checkered flag and attempt an overtake on fresher tires.

So no, I don't see how a car that in theory is as quick but without track position could force the leading car to change its strategy. Now, of course, if the leading Mercedes has a larger gap and the contesting car pits early because it's on a different strategy - it would of course be daft to continue on that 1 stop race. To pit then and retain track position is beneficial since you are also protecting against a potential safety car and finding yourself with worse tires vs your direct competitor behind.

The only way I see what you are saying to make any sense, if is there is limited tire wear data and the leading car that is on a 1-stop race is unsure if they can pull off that strategy. The worst thing would be to target a 1-stop and commit to it and later find out that the tires will run out before. I.e. if the aim is to do 40% on the first tire, but the tires go off early, meaning you pit at 35%, you then face that the second tire has to last 5% longer, forcing you to run below whatever delta you calculated in the first place.

The only thing that will change the above in a significant way, is if you have an extraordinary event taking place: For example a VSC or SC phase that decreases the cost of your pit stop. Then it might be beneficial to pit 'early'. Case in point: China or Bahrain.
Good point.

But what if a Ferrari leads into the first turn?

Vasconia
39
User avatar
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:45 am
Location: Basque Country

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by Vasconia » Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:18 am

Racer X wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:12 pm
I predict

Hamilton
Ricciardo
Vettel
Bottas
Max
Kimi
Pérez
Massa
Hulk
Ocon


For the Race.
RB will be nowhere here, its a very PU dependant track and RB lacks it. Mercedes should have an advantage here but I hope Ferrari´s engine will do a good job too. It Hamilton gets the pole I think he will win the race, Ferrari´s problem is that they NEED to be at least second in order to have a chance.

Qualy will be essential as usual and Ferrari needs to close the gap we saw in Bahrein.

godlameroso
354
User avatar
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2010 8:27 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by godlameroso » Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:02 am

Having putted around the virtual version, there are long straights 2 of them to be exact, the rest are very short, and the corners really test the chassis. Sector 3 is all chassis low speed grip, the rest is just medium speed corners that require efficient downforce.

Weather wise, beautiful weather throughout the weekend. 19-23c, a bit chilly for desert and tropical dwellers, but t-shirt weather for most Europeans. It'll be warmest on Sunday, coolest on Friday. Teams may fall victim to chasing the circuit conditions as it'll change daily. The sun will be shining so track temperatures will be in the 28-34c range. I expect the US and SS to last 1/3 race distance and the S to last 1/2 race distance. So a US US SS race is possible as is a US S race, although the latter will struggle towards the end.
The height of cultivation is really nothing special. It is merely simplicity; the ability to express the utmost with the minimum. Mr.Lee

dans79
206
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2013 6:33 pm
Location: USA

Re: 2017 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, April 28-30

Post by dans79 » Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:50 am

Vasconia wrote:
Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:18 am
Qualy will be essential as usual and Ferrari needs to close the gap we saw in Bahrein.
I think the quali gap will remain the same, but I think Merc might pull ahead in race trim pace. Over the last 2 days they have done 240 laps worth of running in what is arguably the hottest most abrasive conditions they will face all season. From what I have seen/read it looks like they focused almost exclusively on trying to improve long run pace and tire degradation, while not compromising short and single lap pace.