2021 São Paulo Grand Prix - Interlagos, Nov 12-14

[pantherxxx]

People are under-estimating RBs . RB is 5-6 tenths head of Ferrari & RB both in race pace. With Hamilton & Ferrari/Mclaren the gap is 8-9 tenths, with Lewis & Max the gap is 2-3 tenths @ best. It is much easier to carve your way in empty tanks with a 1s pace differential with DRS with colder temperatures & no tyre deg than it is to with full fuel tanks when you are behind a car losing time in dirty air & your car is only 2-3 tenths quicker.

By the time, Lewis will catch up to Max, Max will be 10-15s (unless Hamilton jumps 4-5 places in Lap 1). At 3 tenths & a 15s gap, it will take him 50 laps to catch up to Max.

Let us see - Lots of factors here - Surface Temperature, Tyre Degradation, Full Fuel Tanks, Start & 1st couple of laps. What was heartening for RB is that Max & Bottas were evenly matched for pace & Max was already 2-3s behind after the 1st couple of laps - Thereafter both were roughly equal on pace in empty tanks - RB could have done a lot better in the sprint but the situation isn't as bad as people are reacting !

Max had the fastest lap in the sprint, and he easily overtook Sainz, he was at least 0.7 seconds faster than Sainz. He was even faster than Bottas, just couldn't come close because of the dirty air.

[justmoi]

I didn't want that to end!

[AeroDynamic]

It will be a miracle if Max wins 2moro

Why? if the conditions are the same tomorrow as today, then yeah he will have to fight to hold on but its a different race tomorrow. Its surprising how many people on a technical forum overlook something so obvious that has been a consistent factor every weekend; conditions, conditions, conditions...

[Big Tea]

To slightly steal Merc thunder here, Bottas kept Max boxed in.
Max had to weigh up risk/reward of a second place finish and second place start with Hamilton 5+ how ever many places behind, v a failed pass which could cost him far more and lost points, plus showing Merc what his pace actually is.

I think Max drove a tactical race today, but Geez did Hamilton drive a stormer. (That car goes a lot better now they have fixed that broken DRS )

[PlatinumZealot]

Is this for this race or has Mercedes been doing this for a while now? Anyways Hamilton had 6km/hr over Bottas, that is huge. How much is that worth? 2 Tenths? 1 tenth? 2.5 Tenths? 3 Tenths? Would vary from track to track but it is a difference & one of the reason why Lewis is above Bottas & Verstappen by a huge margin.

Total cheat act by Mercedes running an illegal Rear Wing intentionally when they got RB's then legal flexi rear wing banned by cribbing & by getting new tests introduced mid-season. No such thing was done for DAS. Anyways, really horrible act.

Verstappen has lost a lot - Baku Tyre failure, Hamilton taking him out in Britain, Agent Bottas in Hungary. This will partially compensate for all that. This is a championship where Verstappen has been far superior & should have had a 60-70 point lead & he should have clinched the Championship in Brazil. Norris, Leclerc, Sainz have all been better than Hamilton this season & to some extent Gasly as well !

Incredible that Mercedes/Hamilton tried to blame Verstappen for it - And amazing that Bottas literally has an inferior car - 2 Tenths+ slower & not the illegal rear wing car (if Mercedes thought it was legal) - He has been treated like Hamilton's dog ! Bottas is Hamilton's Rubens Barrichello & that is Lewis kept cribbing about Bottas' being his best team-mate when he got beaten or drew with Rosberg, Button & Alonso (Because he knew Bottas was his toy !)

I am no Merc fan but you answered your own question in the first two sentences. Find another race Lewis has had such a hugh advantage over Bottas in a DRS zone, I doubt there is one.

Find another race where Lewis has a brand new ICE that will be optimised to only race in 4 races.

From what the stewards report said was that the test instrument only passed through the gap when small pressure was applied, so it basically only JUST squeezed through, but it still broke the rules. so fair enough, its illegal. But what it does say is that the gap on Hamiltons car was not even 1mm bigger, at the edges, not the whole thing. To think this would be the reason he gained that speed advantage is absolutely insane.

Adrian Newey and his engineers are quite clever because the wear and tear on the hinge could be something they have observed themselves on their car in this budget cap, and thought it was worth a shot to report something just in case Mercedes overlooked it. It paid off. Note Max's fingers were lightly testing the "slop" in the movement. This could explain why RedBull don't need to see the wing open to know it's worn, could be virbation observations from the Roll camera. Well played RedBull!

My prior theories on both teams running a switch will have to retracted for another time.

[Mr.S]

Over when getting pole position in consecutive races?. At the "Red Bull" tracks?. If anything Ham is my favorite. Especially in the Arabian Peninsula races. Abu Dhabi should be an easy win.

Abu Dhabi is a 50-50 track, maybe Hamilton 60-40. Saudi is the easiest track for Hamilton & Mercedes. If Max wins tomorrow, he will likely go to Saudi with 30+ point lead & would need only 3rd places in the last 3 races to get the championship (even if it is by a point or so !)

Abu Dhabi should be easy for Merc, the corners have been rounded out and the straights are long there. A hallmark of Merc this 2nd of half of the season as been the speed in the 2nd half of the straight, clearly the straight-line aero is immaculate to an extent not seen since Ferrari 2019 perhaps.

I visited the Yas Marina circuit last week on my trip but it was mostly closed so I don't know what they did but Abu Dhabi also has a slow corners where RB will have decisive advantage traction wise. More than half the corners are slow speed ones where RB will have an edge - Lewis' engine will be in his 4th race & Mercedes has much higher deg while the Honda engine barely loses a tenth after 7-8 races so Lewis advantage of 1-2-3 tenths from a new ICU also reduces.

I am going with Lewis 1 tenth over Max with possible chances of a RB victory as well - Just too many 90 turns !

[zibby43]

It will be a miracle if Max wins 2moro

Why? if the conditions are the same tomorrow as today, then yeah he will have to fight to hold on but its a different race tomorrow. Its surprising how many people on a technical forum overlook something so obvious that has been a consistent factor every weekend; conditions, conditions, conditions...

It’s just the typical propping up of a fan base’s favorite driver to make it look like some kind of miracle if he wins when starting P2 after finishing 1s behind Bottas in the sprint.

Under normal circumstances, Hamilton will make it up to P3 tomorrow. If there’s a safety car in his favor, who knows.

Hamilton also has to worry about contact from the midfield at the start.

[InsaneX_Badger]

What Hamilton did this sprint was a feat of skill no doubt. But I'm not sure where the whole counting Max out of the win here. If people haven't guessed already I'm a fan of ham but damn is Max quick. He has been by far the best driver this season and I think he has the kit and the skill to take it to Bottas. Max can still very much win this and be able to control this race in classic Max fashion. He's in the conversation in F1 greatest drivers for a reason. Either way, we as fans are hopefully in for a treat tomorrow and I hope that whoever you follow you have the result you wish for

[Dee]

It will be a miracle if Max wins 2moro

Why? if the conditions are the same tomorrow as today, then yeah he will have to fight to hold on but its a different race tomorrow. Its surprising how many people on a technical forum overlook something so obvious that has been a consistent factor every weekend; conditions, conditions, conditions...

It’s just the typical propping up of a fan base’s favorite driver to make it look like some kind of miracle if he wins when starting P2 after finishing 1s behind Bottas in the sprint.

Under normal circumstances, Hamilton will make it up to P3 tomorrow. If there’s a safety car in his favor, who knows.

Hamilton also has to worry about contact from the midfield at the start.

I feel like we are all in the twilight zone now, did we not see Hamilton overtake 15 cars in 24 laps and with an overtake speed that will push him pass the RB's with ease once he is behind them? I saw nothing today that makes me believe that Max can hang on and win 2moro. Unlesss temperatures completely change and the RB get a LOT faster and he overtakes Bottas at the start...

[Mr.S]

I think Saudi & Qatar should go Mercedes way easy. Saudi is an outright power tracks with many straights (potentially 3 DRS Zones) & huge amount of high speed corners & straights.
Qatar has a long straight (1Km+) & has a mix of high & medium speed corners.

Both tracks are Mercedes favorites easily - Abu Dhabi & Hamilton having a PU into his 4th race will probably be the only RB has any chance of winning here on !

[zibby43]

Why? if the conditions are the same tomorrow as today, then yeah he will have to fight to hold on but its a different race tomorrow. Its surprising how many people on a technical forum overlook something so obvious that has been a consistent factor every weekend; conditions, conditions, conditions...

It’s just the typical propping up of a fan base’s favorite driver to make it look like some kind of miracle if he wins when starting P2 after finishing 1s behind Bottas in the sprint.

Under normal circumstances, Hamilton will make it up to P3 tomorrow. If there’s a safety car in his favor, who knows.

Hamilton also has to worry about contact from the midfield at the start.

I feel like we are all in the twilight zone now, did we not see Hamilton overtake 15 cars in 24 laps and with an overtake speed that will push him pass the RB's with ease once he is behind them? I saw nothing today that makes me believe that Max can hang on and win 2moro. Unlesss temperatures completely change and the RB get a LOT faster and he overtakes Bottas at the start...

In a sprint race on low fuel. And Lewis was still 20s off the lead.

All due respect, only one of us is in the twilight zone right now . . .

[Mchamilton]

To slightly steal Merc thunder here, Bottas kept Max boxed in.
Max had to weigh up risk/reward of a second place finish and second place start with Hamilton 5+ how ever many places behind, v a failed pass which could cost him far more and lost points, plus showing Merc what his pace actually is.

I think Max drove a tactical race today, but Geez did Hamilton drive a stormer. (That car goes a lot better now they have fixed that broken DRS )

I think youre just trying to spin it to make Max out to have been the best in the race in one way or another.

[Mr.S]

Why? if the conditions are the same tomorrow as today, then yeah he will have to fight to hold on but its a different race tomorrow. Its surprising how many people on a technical forum overlook something so obvious that has been a consistent factor every weekend; conditions, conditions, conditions...

It’s just the typical propping up of a fan base’s favorite driver to make it look like some kind of miracle if he wins when starting P2 after finishing 1s behind Bottas in the sprint.

Under normal circumstances, Hamilton will make it up to P3 tomorrow. If there’s a safety car in his favor, who knows.

Hamilton also has to worry about contact from the midfield at the start.

I feel like we are all in the twilight zone now, did we not see Hamilton overtake 15 cars in 24 laps and with an overtake speed that will push him pass the RB's with ease once he is behind them? I saw nothing today that makes me believe that Max can hang on and win 2moro. Unlesss temperatures completely change and the RB get a LOT faster and he overtakes Bottas at the start...

The cars were on an average 1s+ slower than Max (With Norris-Leclerc 6-7 tenths slower in qualy & the ones behind even slower). The temperature was cool - There was no tyre deg which Hamilton will have much more (as will Max) tomorrow !

They were racing with empty cars which were much lighter & quicker. There was 0 difference between Bottas & Max's pace - Even if Hamilton is 3 tenths quicker than Bottas (And we have seen RB consistently doing much better in race pace vs qualy), the differential is not too much vs Max & Max will be 10-12s atleast ahead by the time Lewis comes to the position behind him, possibly ahead more.

Too many variables - Including Tyre Deg, Safety Cars - Mercedes do have the quckier car & LH has extra advantage of a new ICE but people jump to conclusions too early & declare result before the race begins !

[Tvetovnato]

It will be a miracle if Max wins 2moro

Why? if the conditions are the same tomorrow as today, then yeah he will have to fight to hold on but its a different race tomorrow. Its surprising how many people on a technical forum overlook something so obvious that has been a consistent factor every weekend; conditions, conditions, conditions...

Exactly. A good start for Max and he’s off. No way Bottas will be able to challenge then. Given how lenient Bottas has been in the battles so far, he will probably not put up much fight in turn one if Max goes for it.

[dans79]

Exactly. A good start for Max and he’s off. No way Bottas will be able to challenge then. Given how lenient Bottas has been in the battles so far, he will probably not put up much fight in turn one if Max goes for it.

He is fighting for the win tomorrow. Unless Max has a substantially better start, I think Bottas will be very hard with him tomorrow through the first 3 turns. Not to mention Max has a lot more to lose than Bottas does!